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The bulk of the 2024 MLB season is set to get underway, but fantasy baseball drafts will take place up to the first pitch on Opening Day and beyond. There is still time to find and analyze which players are sleepers and which players have bust potential ahead of Thursday's action.
Cody Bellinger, Lane Thomas, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are three players that baseball fans are buzzing about, and all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft Bellinger, Thomas, or Encarnacion-Strand in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Cody Bellinger Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 53
Current ADP: ~pick 57
Analysis: Chicago Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger appeared to be falling off a cliff after the Los Angeles Dodgers didn't even extend a qualifying offer to him after the 2022 season.
Bellinger looked entirely rejuvenated after landing a one-year prove-it deal with the Chicago Cubs in 2023, playing at a high level in the first quarter of play before fully recapturing his MVP form. In 78 outings over 303 at-bats from July 4 onward, Bellinger settled in as Chicago's everyday cleanup hitter and slashed a sensational .327/.372/.571 with 19 home runs, 17 doubles, 73 RBI, and 10 stolen bases shortly after coming off the injured list with a left knee contusion.
The 28-year-old southpaw also acted as one of the top situational hitters in baseball, putting up an MLB-high 12 sacrifice flies. Bellinger's free agency surprisingly extended into spring training, but his MVP-caliber season netted him a three-year, $80 million contract on Feb. 25 to stick around in the Windy City.
Though his Silver Slugger campaign and strong defense instill confidence that Bellinger is back among the majors' marquee names, his inflated 2024 draft cost doesn't come without red flags. After striking out as much as anyone in the prior two years, Bellinger shored up on the lack of discipline for a strong 15.6% strikeout rate but didn't hit the ball hard with regularity (31.4%).
On top of that, Belli registered one of Statcast's largest discrepancies in batting average (.307) and expected BA (.268), slugging (.525), and xSLG (.434), plus weighted on-base average (.370) and xwOBA (.327). Shaping up as fantasy's batter version of Blake Snell, Bellinger carries plenty of risk as a top-50 fantasy pick but has a top-10 ceiling.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 112
Current ADP: ~pick 152
Analysis: Cincinnati Reds first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand went 1-for-3 with his fifth homer of the spring in Sunday's Cactus League contest versus the Cleveland Guardians. In addition to his five home runs, the slugger has driven in 14 runs and is hitting .333 in 51 at-bats.
Encarnacion-Strand earned his call-up in 2023 after crushing 52 long balls over a year and a half in the minors. He didn't disappoint the Reds by batting .270 with 13 HRs, a 48.4% hard-hit rate, and .476 xSLG, putting him in the top 30 of qualified hitters in the expected slugging percentage. He can flat-out rake and becomes even more appealing playing half his games in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Is that enough for the Reds to give CES everyday playing time? Well, Noelvi Marte was suspended 80 games for PEDs, meaning Jeimer Candelario will handle third base duties, while Encarncion-Strand will handle first base with Marte suspended. Most importantly, he controls his own destiny, meaning that if he produces when given the chance, they'll have to insert him into the lineup daily.
ATC projects Encarncion-Strand to slash .266/.325/.491 with 26 home runs over 122 games. CES has an NFBC ADP of 132, slightly later than RotoBaller's overall ranking of 112. Encarnacion-Strand is an excellent mid-round value heading into 2024 fantasy baseball drafts.
Lane Thomas Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 115
Current ADP: ~129
Analysis: Washington Nationals outfielder Lane Thomas was a bright spot for the team in a rebuilding season, posting 101 runs, 28 HRs, 20 steals, and a respectable .783 OPS.
Has he peaked, or is the 28-year-old a core guy the Nationals can build around? It would be risky to reach for him in your draft or to count on another 25/20 season. Despite hitting the same amount of home runs before and after the All-Star break, one potential red flag is that his average dropped by 79 points in the second half. Also, he won't score 100 runs again unless he improves upon the lowest walk rate of his career (5.3%).
Speed is the main subject of scrutiny when projecting how Thomas will do this year. He was successful in stealing 20 bases in 25 attempts last season, but it's hard to rely on a repeat performance when you consider in the previous four years combined, he's tried to steal a base only 23 times. He thrived as a pull hitter, posting a 47.7% fly ball rate to left field, leading to 55 of his 67 extra-base hits going that way.
The emergence of CJ Abrams will provide more RBI opportunities. FGDC projects Thomas to slash .268/.315/.468 with 23 homers and 15 stolen bases over 147 games. The 28-year-old could provide solid fantasy value if he comes close to his 2023 totals. The combination of speed and power is tantalizing and makes him worthy of picking around the 110-120 range.
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