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The Chicago Cubs continue to be active in trades while the New York Yankees look to have found a solution in the outfield after Juan Soto departed for Queens.
On Tuesday, December 17, the Chicago Cubs traded outfielder Cody Bellinger and $5 million in cash to the New York Yankees in exchange for reliever Cody Poteet.
This should certainly help the Yankees attempt to stay atop the American League, but what does it mean for fantasy baseball? In this piece, we will analyze Bellinger’s performance last season and see if he can provide at least some of the offensive void that Soto's spot in the lineup leaves. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out and discuss them with me on X or Bluesky.
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Cody Bellinger 2024 Season Review
The former NL MVP saw a drop in production in his second year in Chicago, posting a 109 wRC+ in 130 games after hitting for a 136 wRC+ in 2023. His BB% and K% stayed consistent from year to year, though a drop in power was evident. His 18 HRs ranked fourth on the Cubs while he was second on the team in RBI with 78.
Cody Bellinger answers the chants with a homer ... again! 💪 pic.twitter.com/oasqASahqx
— MLB (@MLB) April 7, 2024
Bellinger missed time due to a fractured finger in July, and he only played in 10 games. Outside of that, he was able to play between 22-27 games per month, giving the Cubs some reliability and consistency by knowing his bat would be available in the lineup.
Generally starting in either center field or right field, the 29-year-old also logged time at first base and designated hitter. Bellinger was most productive when hitting as a DH, posting a 152 wRC+ in 107 PA.
Though it was a down year for Bellinger, it still surpassed the production in his last two seasons as a Dodger, which was marred by a fractured left fibula. He wasn't quite his former MVP self as a Cub but was able to provide above-league-average production at the plate.
A Look Under The Hood
The biggest thing that sticks out when looking at Bellinger's stats is the gap in his expected stats and how they point toward a likely drop in production in 2025.
In 2023, Bellinger posted a .370 wOBA with a .327 xwOBA and a 136 wRC+. It should come as no surprise that in 2024, his numbers dropped, posting a .322 wOBA with a .305 xwOBA and a 109 wRC+. The 109 wRC+ is nothing to scoff at, but the gap between wOBA and xwOBA, though not as drastic as his 2023 numbers, still points to negative regression.
We also need to consider his drop in ISO. His 2024 ISO of .161 is the third lowest of his career, only surpassing his 2021 season in L.A. That drop in power led to a nearly 100-point drop in slugging and a 40-point drop in batting average. His batted ball profile's most noticeable change from season to season was a four-percentage-point decrease in line drives and a nearly three-percentage-point increase in fly balls, per FanGraphs. He also saw his HR/FB% drop from 14.1% to 9.0%.
As far as how pitchers attacked him in 2024 compared to 2023, the pitch mix wasn't drastically different. Instead, the results were. One pitch in particular that saw wildly different results in 2024 was the slider. In 2023, the lefty crushed sliders, hitting them for a .453 wOBA.
In 2024, that dropped drastically to a .215 wOBA. It was the pitch he saw at the third-highest rate at 12.8% but was easily his biggest weakness, only posting a .179 BA against them with a 26.1% K%. Given he only struck out at a 15.6% clip in 2024, it's clear he just wasn't seeing sliders as well and that pitchers may have been attacking him in different locations with that pitch.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook
As with any lefty who's joining the Yankees, the first question everyone will have is if Bellinger would have more HRs if he were a Yankee all season, thanks to the short porch in right field. And the difference is drastic.
Per Baseball Savant, Bellinger would have hit just 15 HRs had he played every game at Wrigley Field in 2024. Flip that to Yankee Stadium and it says he'd have hit 24 bombs. Without much change in his FB% from year to year, we should expect that he'll hit a similar number of fly balls and boost his totals up. With 18 HRs in 2024, maybe that gets bumped up to the low 20s.
Cody Bellinger hitting fly balls that would’ve been homers at Yankee Stadium for 68 seconds pic.twitter.com/bWeHRwIDo6
— . (@HalToHell) December 18, 2024
An expected bump in power should ideally help smooth out the gap between his raw stats and the expected stats that we touched on before. But it's still a cause for concern. The 43-point gap between wOBA and xwOBA in 2023 caught up with Bellinger in 2024, who still had a 17-point gap this past season.
He's generally outperformed what his xwOBA says he should have done over the past four seasons, but it's always going to cause some doubt on just how effective he can be going forward.
At the same time, there's going to be a boost in value, whether he hits in front of or behind Aaron Judge. That assumes he'll be at the top or the middle of the Yankees lineup, which is a fair assumption given how top-heavy New York's lineup was in 2024. More runs and RBI should be on deck for the lefty, helping boost that fantasy value.
Bellinger should also see plenty of playing time without much worry, as he told reporters he was open to playing wherever the Yankees need him to play. "Whether it's left, center or if Judge gets a DH day, I'll play right. Or if you need me at first base, I'll play first," is what the lefty said he told Yankees manager Aaron Boone.
From a fantasy perspective, it may be ideal to see him in a DH role, given how much better he performed as a DH in Chicago, but he's not getting the nod at DH over Giancarlo Stanton without something wild happening.
Cody Bellinger is no stranger to hitting tanks at Yankee Stadium 💪 pic.twitter.com/tE5ferWO7C
— MLB (@MLB) December 17, 2024
One interesting note here, and something fantasy managers will want to monitor, is what this means for prospect Jasson Dominguez. The 21-year-old missed most of 2024 after having Tommy John surgery but is currently the Yankees' top prospect and someone people thought may fill the void in the outfield after Soto's departure.
On the outside, the trade for Bellinger may signify a lack of confidence in Dominguez from the Yankees' front office. The opportunity for him to make an impact in 2025 is still on the table as Yankees GM Brian Cashman recently stated, "I'd like to see him get his shot now," in reference to Dominguez. Should Bellinger thrive and Dominguez struggle, or vice versa, there would be fantasy implications for both due to any playing time changes that may happen.
Steamer projections from FanGraphs expect Bellinger to see an increase in production from 2024 with 23 HRs, 71 R, 78 RBI, and a .254/.317/.439 slash line. That translates to a 112 wRC+. With a 109 wRC+ last season, that would mean you should get similar results from the lefty in 2025.
Fantasy managers should still be a bit wary of his expected stats showing negative regression coming, but a short porch leading to more expected HRs should help level things out.
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