RADIO
Eli analyzes disappointing players from last week to find potential Week 16 fantasy football buy-lows, sleepers and risers based on play-calling and historical data.
This series continues into its sixteenth and final edition for the NFL regular season where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.
In Week 16, we saw performances such as the San Francisco 49ers wide receivers combine for two receptions against the Arizona Cardinals, Andy Dalton throw for 377 passing yards against the Philadelphia Eagles, and the New York Giants running backs combine for 46 rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens. After these types of performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvements Ahead?
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
San Francisco 49ers Wide Receivers
Kyle Shanahan
The San Francisco 49ers managed to defeat the Arizona Cardinals 20-12. In this game, the 49ers did not need to utilize their wide receivers very much, as the position group combined for two receptions on four targets for 31 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
After this performance, the San Francisco 49ers wide receiver room is averaging 11.47 receptions on 17.8 targets for 145.13 receiving yards and 0.6 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 15 games of the season.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 San Francisco 49ers (15 games) | 11.47 | 17.8 | 145.13 | 0.6 |
| Kyle Shanahan Prior (192 games) | 11.94 | 19.94 | 162.49 | 0.90 |
Now let's compare this to what the 49ers head coach, Kyle Shanahan, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Shanahan has had his wide receiver room average 11.94 receptions on 19.94 targets for 162.49 receiving yards and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game in the 192 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
The 49ers use of their wide receivers this past Saturday was uncharacteristic for a Kyle Shanahan wide receiver room. Looking ahead to Week 17, there should be a bit of a bounce-back performance from this group.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and Richie James
New York Giants Running Backs
Jason Garrett
The Giants lost 27-13 to the Baltimore Ravens, putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy. In this game, the Giants running backs struggled to get going, combining for 10 carries, 46 rushing yards, three receptions, three targets, 35 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns.
After this performance, the Giants running back room is averaging 19.53 carries, 78.13 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 3.87 receptions, 5.4 targets, 26.53 receiving yards, and 0.13 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 15 games of the season.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 New York Giants (15 games)* | 19.53 | 78.13 | 0.67 | 3.87 | 5.4 | 26.53 | 0.13 |
| Jason Garrett Prior (208 games) | 23.63 | 106.15 | 0.69 | 4.41 | 5.61 | 35.07 | 0.09 |
*Jason Garrett did not call plays in the Giants game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 15
Now let's compare this to what the Giants offensive coordinator, Jason Garrett, has traditionally gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Garrett has had his running back room average 23.63 carries, 106.15 rushing yards, 0.69 rushing touchdowns, 4.41 receptions, 5.61 targets, 35.07 receiving yards, and 0.09 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
The New York Giants running back room has disappointing relative to Jason Garrett's previous running back rooms. A significant part of this is due to star running back Saquon Barkley being out for the season, but even when he was playing he struggled more than he had in previous seasons. They should perform better than this last week for Week 17, but this is a clear down year for Jason Garrett's running back room.
Fantasy players this impacts: Wayne Gallman, Alfred Morris, and Dion Lewis
Tennessee Titans Wide Receivers
Arthur Smith
The Tennessee Titans got blown out by the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football, losing 40-14. In this game, the Tennessee Titans combined for six receptions on 13 targets for 74 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.
After this performance, the Titans wide receiver room is averaging 11.2 receptions on 16.47 targets for 161.93 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 15 games of the season.
| WR Rec. | WR Tgts. | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Tennessee Titans (15 games) | 11.2 | 16.47 | 161.93 | 1.2 |
| Arthur Smith Prior (16 games) | 10.69 | 15.94 | 160.69 | 1.06 |
Now let's compare this to what the Titans offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Smith has had his wide receiver room average 10.69 receptions on 15.94 targets for 160.69 receiving yards and 1.06 receiving touchdowns per game in the 16 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
The Titans wide receivers underperformed and were underutilized in Week 16 relative to Arthur Smith's previous success at utilizing the position. Expect a bit of a bounce-back performance in the final week of the NFL regular season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Corey Davis, A.J. Brown, and Kalif Raymond
Green Bay Packers Tight Ends
Matt LaFleur & Nathaniel Hackett
The Green Bay Packers destroyed the Tennessee Titans on Sunday Night Football, winning the game 40-14 on the back of excellent performances by Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. While the Rodgers-Adams connection prospered, the Green Bay Packers tight end room didn't fare as well, combining for two receptions on three targets for 30 receiving yards and zero receiving touchdowns.
After this performance, the Green Bay Packers tight end room is averaging 4.87 receptions on 6.07 targets for 53.67 receiving yards and 0.93 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 15 games of the season.
| TE Rec. | TE Tgts. | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Green Bay Packers (15 games) | 4.87 | 6.07 | 53.67 | 0.93 |
| Matt LaFleur Prior (48 games) | 3.73 | 5.65 | 44.06 | 0.31 |
| Nathaniel Hackett Prior (89 games) | 3.73 | 5.69 | 38.82 | 0.25 |
Now let's compare this to what the Packers head coach, Matt LaFleur, has historically gotten out of his tight end room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. LaFleur has had his tight end room average 3.73 receptions on 5.65 targets for 44.06 receiving yards and 0.31 receiving touchdowns per game in the 48 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the 89 games that Nathaniel Hackett had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Hackett has had his tight end room average 3.73 receptions on 5.69 targets for 38.82 receiving yards and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.
Sunday Night's performance was disappointing for the Green Bay Packers tight ends. But looking at the season as a whole, the Packers tight end room has been performing better than what we've been accustomed to from Matt LaFleur/Nathaniel Hackett tight end room. There should be a bit of a bounce-back performance from Week 16, but don't expect much to change from the 2020 season totals after the final week of the season.
Fantasy players this impacts: Robert Tonyan & Dominique Dafney
Los Angeles Chargers Running Backs
Anthony Lynn & Shane Steichen
The Los Angeles Chargers defeated the Denver Broncos in a closely contested game, 19-16. In this game the Los Angeles Chargers running backs combined for 16 carries, 63 rushing yards, five receptions, six targets, 35 receiving yards, and one receiving touchdown.
After this performance, the Chargers running back room is averaging 24 carries, 92.93 rushing yards, 0.33 rushing touchdowns, 7.8 receptions, 9.33 targets, 53.33 receiving yards, and 0.06 receiving touchdowns per game through the first 15 games of the season.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Los Angeles Chargers (15 games) | 24 | 92.93 | 0.33 | 7.8 | 9.33 | 53.33 | 0.06 |
| Anthony Lynn Prior (62 games) | 22.42 | 102.87 | 0.94 | 6.44 | 8.29 | 57.95 | 0.40 |
| Shane Steichen Prior (8 games) | 23.63 | 108 | 0.88 | 9.38 | 11.88 | 94.25 | 0.38 |
Now let's compare this to what the Chargers head coach, Anthony Lynn, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Lynn has had his running back room average 22.42 carries, 102.87 rushing yards, 0.94 rushing touchdowns, 6.44 receptions, 8.29 targets, 57.95 receiving yards, and 0.40 receiving touchdowns per game in the 62 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
In addition, in the eight games that Shane Steichen had been an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Steichen has had his running back room average 23.63 carries, 108 rushing yards, 0.88 rushing touchdowns, 9.38 receptions, 11.88 targets, 94.25 receiving yards, and 0.38 receiving touchdowns per game.
All year, the 2020 Chargers running backs have failed to live up to their coaches' previous success at utilizing the position, in large part because they have scored very few touchdowns. While they did manage to score a touchdown in Sunday's game against the Denver Broncos, the yardage and usage totals were below what we've come to expect from an Anthony Lynn running back room. With one game left this season, there isn't enough time to see a ton of improvement on the season totals. But at the very least there should be a bit of a bounce-back performance in Week 17.
Fantasy players this impacts: Austin Ekeler, Kalen Ballage, Justin Jackson, and Joshua Kelley
Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs
Randy Fichtner
The Pittsburgh Steelers had a dramatic come from behind victory against the Indianapolis Colts this past Sunday, winning the game 28-24. In this game, the Steelers running backs combined for 11 carries, 20 rushing yards, five receptions, five targets, 45 receiving yards, and one rushing touchdown.
After this performance, the Pittsburgh Steelers running back room is averaging 20.33 carries, 77.67 rushing yards, 0.67 rushing touchdowns, 3.67 receptions, 4.8 targets, 23.4 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns per game through the first 15 games of the season.
| RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Tgts | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs | |
| 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers (15 games) | 20.33 | 77.67 | 0.67 | 3.67 | 4.8 | 23.4 | 0 |
| Randy Fichtner Prior (32 games) | 20.13 | 81.09 | 0.63 | 5.47 | 6.59 | 42.19 | 0.25 |
Now let's compare this to what the Steelers offensive coordinator, Randy Fichtner, has historically gotten out of his running back room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Fichtner has had his running back room average 20.13 carries, 81.09 rushing yards, 0.63 rushing touchdowns, 5.47 receptions, 6.59 targets, 42.19 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game in the 32 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
The Steelers running backs have been the most consistent group to appear on this list since their hot start the first four weeks. Randy Fichtner has never been one to pound the rock, but the usage the last few weeks has been shockingly bad. The Steelers running backs should hopefully bounce-back in Week 17, but it appears that this group will be the least productive running back room of Randy Fichtner's career.
Fantasy players this impacts: James Conner, Anthony McFarland Jr., and Benny Snell Jr.
Detroit Lions Wide Receivers
Darrell Bevell, Robert Prince (WR Coach), and Sean Ryan (QB Coach)
Saturday's game between the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers was the perfect example of why coaching matters. Going into the game, the Lions were without interim head coach Darrell Bevell due to COVID-19 protocols and it led to Robert Prince (the Lions wide receivers coach) getting head coaching duties and Sean Ryan (the Lions quarterbacks coach) taking over play-calling duties. This is why the Detroit Lions offense struggled mightily against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they got blown out 47-7. While many position groups struggled in this game, the Detroit Lions wide receivers probably struggled the most, combining for 11 receptions on 16 targets for 87 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
After this performance, the Detroit Lions wide receiver room is averaging 13 receptions on 20.13 targets for 171.6 receiving yards and 0.87 receiving touchdowns per game over the first 15 games of the season.
Now while he didn't officially coach this game, just for fun let's compare this to what the Lions interim head coach, Darrell Bevell, has historically gotten out of his wide receiver room in his time in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role. Bevell has had his wide receiver room average 10.54 receptions on 17.76 targets for 145.24 receiving yards and 0.92 receiving touchdowns per game in the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season.
Robert Prince and Sean Ryan had no experience in a head coaching or offensive coordinator role prior to this past Saturday, and it showed on the field as the Detroit Lions offense failed to score a single touchdown. A situation where an interim head coach for the interim head coach is extremely rare and unlikely to ever happen again in the NFL. But it was the perfect opportunity to show why coaching matters and how it can impact your players' fantasy value.
Fantasy players this impacts: Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Danny Amendola, and Quintez Cephus
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