RADIO
Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players in this draft class, with detailed insight into future NFL standouts' strengths, weaknesses, and projections.
Scouting NFL Draft prospects is about projecting translatable traits. There is often overlap between translatable traits and college performance, but there's a reason many top college players are not considered legitimate professionals. For example, a wide receiver being able to get in and out of breaks efficiently will not change from college to pro. Conversely, an edge-rusher who got most of his sacks due to hustle or missed offensive line assignments may not have shown translatable traits on film.
The film clips in this series show each pro prospect's positive and negative traits. Reading this article will give you a more in-depth look into each player with actual in-game visual evidence. We will continue our Coach Knows Ball series with a player projected to be a Day 2 or Day 3 pick. In the past, this series has only focused on projected first-round picks. Hopefully, this Kentucky RB Ray Davis evaluation will age as well as my Kyren Williams prediction.
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Not surprised by Kyren pic.twitter.com/yhShkhCbRA
— Andrew (@draft32teams) September 18, 2023
Ray Davis Rookie Profile
Ray Davis is a 24-year-old RB prospect who started his career at Temple in 2020. He then transferred to Vanderbilt, where he earned a degree in communications. He dealt with some injuries at Vandy, and decided to finish his collegiate career at Kentucky, where he ran for 1,129 yards and 14 touchdowns with a 5.7 yards per carry average last season. Davis' life story is inspirational, and definitely worth reading. In this article, we'll focus on his impressive film. I believe he has a chance to be a solid pro, despite being an older prospect.
Hidden Yardage
Ray Davis is a solid back with an intriguing skill set. However, he's doesn't have that one elite trait that pops off the screen. A cursory look at Davis's film and analytical profile might be underwhelming. However, I believe if you dive deeper into his film, there are plenty of translatable traits that make him a great bet to be a productive pro back.
Davis ran 4.52 at the NFL Combine and is older than you'd like at a position with a short shelf life. He didn't produce at a high level until he was 24 at Kentucky. But there is a lot to like on film.
One of the most impressive translatable habits that will carry over to the pro game is Davis's ability to always fall forward and churn out hidden yardage. He is rarely stonewalled at first contact and will frequently contort his body to maximize yardage after contact. That could be by spinning, diving, or falling forward.
The clip below is a one-yard run. But it still shows translatable traits. The Kentucky offensive line leaves two unblocked defenders in Davis's face. He's contacted three and a half yards behind the line of scrimmage but uses aggressive feet, phone-booth quickness, and the will to spin forward to make it a positive gain.
Davis is not a prolific tackle-breaker on a per-rush basis, but he does have flashes of impressive power. He runs behind his pads and has natural leverage at just 5-foot-8.
In the clip below, you can see Davis score on the goal line, running through two arm tackles. His body is lower than everyone else's and his feet don't stop moving. He's highly competitive as a runner.
In the clip below, Davis executes a brilliant cutback against an elite Georgia defense. Notice how he sticks his left foot into the ground and bursts to get around his log block. As No. 22 takes his angle, Davis gives a quick two-step to get vertical and finish the run with active feet falling forward. Everything about this run translates.
Kentucky has historically had a pretty good offensive line and there were plenty of clips of them giving Davis huge holes. Davis thrived in both zone and gap schemes, and was most creative when given the opportunity to bounce runs to the edge. While 4.52 isn't blazing, he possesses a solid mix of short-area quickness and physical decisiveness. I think his internal clock as a runner will translate well.
In the clip below, Davis bounces the counter run outside, sheds the backside pursuer with nonstop feet, and takes an SEC safety on a piggyback ride for extra yardage. Notice the natural stairstep to get around his receivers' blocking. Natural is a great word to describe Davis's instincts as a pure runner.
Natural Receiver
The aspect of Davis's game that separates him from some of the other backs in this class is his receiving ability. Davis caught 33 passes for 323 yards and seven touchdowns this past season and finished his college career with 94 total receptions. That's big-time receiving production from a RB.
Davis was adept at figuring out checkdown locations and transitioned to a runner quickly after the catch. He also feasted on some well-designed screens. However, Davis didn't exclusively run routes close to the line of scrimmage. He made plays down the field on wheels and seams as well.
In the clip below, you can see his natural ball skills on a flat-and-up at the Senior Bowl. The quarterback places the ball backshoulder, and Davis makes a great adjustment with full extension and the ball security to rip the football away from the defender and survive the ground. His sticky hands will translate.
In the clip below, Davis shows great timing and deception on his screen path and transitions to a runner quickly after the catch. He's quick and creative to fool the free defender, then powers his way through two more Florida defenders to score. Davis had 26 carries for 280 yards and four total TDs against Florida in one of the most impressive single-game performances of the season in all of college football.
Georgia is a great litmus test for RB prospects. In the clip below, Davis executes the screen as intended and shows how he can stick his foot in the ground and get vertical. That quickness and burst off the cut against possible future pros is special. Also notice how his hands are matter-of-fact natural and how quickly he transitions to a runner.
Blocking Questions
Davis can play at the next level, but it's fair to wonder what his role might be. He's likely not going to be drafted high enough to start right away, and his pass blocking makes him a questionable bet to earn a receiving role as a rookie.
In the X post below, you can see he ranks in the lower half in terms of pass block grade by PFF.
#NFLDraft RB pass block grades pic.twitter.com/45ki3KhHqN
— Andrew (@draft32teams) March 19, 2024
In the clip below, you can see one of his blocking issues. Davis leans in with his shoulder, delivering a weak attempt at the blitzer. He should get his hands involved and step to engage, rather than accept the blow.
In the clip below, you see a similar mistake. Blocking with his shoulder is surely not the technique he's been taught. The edge defender disposes of him quickly.
Davis is not a good pass blocker right now, but he's an excellent receiver. If he can improve technique, he has the solid base to protect at the next level. At this point, he looks much more comfortable running routes.
NFL Outlook
Ray Davis has exciting film and all the traits to be a solid NFL RB. He'd have to be somewhat of an outlier to succeed as such an old prospect. Even if he does excel in the NFL, he has a longevity disadvantage compared to his peers. Despite all this, Davis is worth betting on because of his natural ability and resilience. Draft capital will be important, but he could be a value in all fantasy formats as a rookie regardless.
If you want to read and watch some of my past film breakdowns, click the links below.
- Malik Nabers - WR, LSU
- Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Ohio State
- Rome Odunze - WR, Washington
- Brock Bowers - TE, Georgia
- Caleb Williams - QB, USC
- Drake Maye - QB, North Carolina
- Jayden Daniels - QB, LSU
- C.J. Stroud - QB, Ohio State
- Anthony Richardson - QB, Florida
- Bijan Robinson - RB, Texas
- Jahmyr Gibbs - RB, Alabama
- Breece Hall - RB, Iowa State (2022)
- Garrett Wilson - WR, Ohio State (2022)
- Ja'Marr Chase - WR, LSU (2021)
Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for more draft content in the coming days.
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