Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Pittsburgh Steelers as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

Pittsburgh's offense will undergo many changes this season. They hired Arthur Smith, the former head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. However, after years of watching him misusing Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and, more recently, Bijan Robinson, there is little confidence in this offense. However, when he was the offensive coordinator of the Titans, he was quite good. Pittsburgh dealt with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL last season but added Russell Wilson and traded for Justin Fields. While they're unlikely to have good quarterback play, it should be significantly better than last season. There's still a quarterback competition ongoing, but it seems Wilson will be under center in Week 1.

There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. Be sure to bookmark our fantasy football ADP page for the latest industry consensus ADPs. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

 

Fantasy Football Team Previews

NFC West	AFC West	NFC South	AFC South	NFC East	AFC East	NFC North	AFC North
Rams	Broncos	Saints	Colts	Cowboys	Jets	Lions	Browns
Seahawks	Chargers	Buccaneers	Titans	Giants	Patriots	Bears	Ravens
49ers	Raiders	Panthers	Jaguars	Commanders	Bills	Vikings	Bengals
Cardinals	Chiefs	Falcons	Texans	Eagles	Dolphins	Packers	Steelers

 

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Russell Wilson: QB27, ADP 209
Justin Fields: QB26, ADP 191

These ADPs and positional rankings are interesting because despite Mike Tomlin continuing to express that Wilson is in "pole position" and the most likely quarterback to start Week 1, fantasy managers are still drafting Justin Fields ahead of him, although it is close. For fantasy, Wilson had a bounce-back season last year but still left much to be desired regarding his on-the-field play.

Much of his fantasy football value came down to a high touchdown rate. While that was common for Wilson early in his career, it's difficult to continue banking on this current version of Wilson to continue out-performing in the touchdown department.

Wilson finished 19th in attempts but ninth in touchdowns due to a 5.8% touchdown rate, ranked third among qualifying quarterbacks. Only Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott were better. It would be unwise for fantasy managers to expect Wilson to perform that much above average in terms of touchdown rate. Wilson was either chucking it deep or checking it down. He rarely worked the intermediate part of the field.

He finished sixth in deep-throw percentage at 13.4% and first in check-down rate at 18.6%. Almost a third of his pass attempts were either checkdowns or passes 20+ yards down the field. This style of play negatively impacted Denver's ability to consistently move the chains and keep drives moving. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Wilson finished 24th in pass success rate, according to Pro Football Reference.

Despite Wilson's penchant for pushing the ball downfield, he still finished 25th in intended air yards per attempt at just 7.1. However, Wilson was one of the more accurate quarterbacks last season. He finished fourth with the lowest off-target throw percentage at just 13.2%.

His on-target throw percentage was ninth-highest at 77.9%. His adjusted completion percentage of 77.9% ranked third among quarterbacks. Wilson was pressured on 43.9% of his dropbacks, the highest among quarterbacks. He tends to hang onto the ball, looking for that big play downfield, but it leads to many sacks. Wilson was sacked 45 times last year in just 15 games. That was the fourth-most.

Wilson had some great plays, and there are moments where you can see vintage Seattle Seahawks Wilson, but at the end of the day, he holds onto the ball too long, takes far too many sacks, and doesn't take the easy play enough. He checks down a lot but cannot consistently work the intermediate part of the field. It's all (downfield throw) or nothing (check down) with Wilson. Or it's worse, and he's taking a sack.

Wilson was solid for fantasy football last season despite all his negatives. He finished as the QB14 with a 17.8 PPG average. As you can see from the table below, Wilson did not finish outside of the top 24 in any given week this past season. He scored over 13 points in 14 of his 15 starts and surpassed 20 points four times. He finished as a top-12 quarterback 47% of the time, which was higher than Jared Goff if you can believe that. You would have been very happy if you drafted him as your QB3 last season.

An underrated part of his game is his ability to run the football. He finished with 381 rushing yards, eighth-most among quarterback, and three rushing touchdowns, 12th-most. While he's getting older, he's still athletic enough to get outside of the pocket and play with his legs.

What makes drafting Wilson difficult is it seems likely that he'll eventually be benched so that Pittsburgh can see what they have with Justin Fields. Fantasy managers should expect Wilson to outplay his positional ADP as long as he's the starter, but therein lies the problem. How long does his starter stint last? Due to this, his price is fair. There are other quarterbacks with more upside.

Fields is one of those quarterbacks. At this stage, we know his issues. He hangs onto the ball too long, struggles reading the field, and makes far too many negative plays. Fields has a penchant for hanging onto the football and taking sacks like Wilson. He was pressured on 43.1% of his dropbacks, right behind Wilson. 22.3% of Fields' pressures turned into sacks, the seventh-highest among quarterbacks.

He's slow to read the field and does not throw with any anticipation. He needs to see it, nice and clear, before he unloads. Those openings are not regular in the NFL, so he struggles to complete passes.

Last year, Fields had the eighth-highest rate of off-target throws out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. He also had the fifth-lowest amount of on-target throws. Not surprisingly, his completion percentage ranked just 29th at 61.4%. His pass success rate was 38.4%, ranking 29th, only ahead of Will Levis, Zach Wilson, and Bryce Young.

He's not a good passer. He's not accurate. He plays either too fast or too slow. He never seems to be in rhythm and takes far too many negative plays. That's why coaches get tired of his up-and-down nature despite his ability to make big plays.

Real-life football, though, isn't fantasy football. As you can see above, Fields has been dynamic for fantasy managers. His 5.92 performance in Week 6 of this past season was when he got injured and left early. Eliminating that game, he's been a top 12 quarterback 65% of the time. It's not just that, though. It's how much he scores. He has week-winning upside, scoring over 25 points seven times, which includes two 40+ point performances. He accomplishes this because of what he can do on the ground.

From 2022-2023, in games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, Fields has averaged 10.2 carries, 64.9 yards, and 0.44 rushing touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, that equates to 173 carries, 1,103 yards, and 7.5 rushing touchdowns. That's 155.3 total fantasy points or roughly 9.13 points he's scoring. on the ground. If we want our fantasy quarterback to score 20 PPG, he only needs to score 10.87 passing the ball to get us there. That's 172 passing yards and one passing touchdown. His ability to score points with his legs gives fantasy managers a solid floor and a very appealing ceiling.

Since Wilson is more likely to start early and Fields late, he could become a league-winning waiver wire addition. Fields has week-winning upside in fantasy football, given his rushing prowess. If he's the starter for fantasy managers in the fantasy playoffs, he'll be someone to keep an eye on.

The problem is, we don't know when he'll finally get the starting nod or if he'll get it. If you have deeper rosters, he's worth a stash. Otherwise, keep an eye on Wilson's performance. If he starts playing poorly, add Fields a week or two early because if he becomes the starter, he'll likely be ranked as a top-12 quarterback.

Verdict: Sell Russell Wilson, Keep an Eye on Justin Fields (potential midseason league-winner)

 

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Najee Harris: RB24, ADP 68
Jaylen Warren: RB28, ADP 84

Warren suffered a hamstring injury in their most recent preseason game, which is expected to keep him out "several weeks." That will push right into Week 1, and it's possible Warren may not be ready to go at the start of the season. Because of this, fantasy managers should expect both of their ADPs to move slightly in opposite directions. Warren will likely become cheaper, while Harris' ADP could become pricier in the next week or two. That'll be something to keep an eye on.

For the past two seasons, Harris has left a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy managers. However, he has been really good in the second half of the past two seasons. In 2022, Harris suffered a Lisfranc injury and played with a steel plate in his shoe for the first half of the season. They had their bye week in Week 9, and following that break, Harris no longer played with that steel plate in his shoe. Below, you can see his splits from the first and second half of the 2022 season. As you can see, Harris was much better!

Year	Carries Per Game	Broken Tackle %	YAC/Carry	RYOE	Half-PPR PPG	Half-PPR PPG Rank
Weeks 1-8, 2022	13.5	6.5%	1.3	-1.15	9.4	RB29
Weeks 10-17, 2022	17.6	9.2%	2.2	-0.17	14.3	RB9

His carries per game increased, as did his overall efficiency. He averaged just 45.1 rushing yards per game in the first eight weeks of the 2022 season, but that increased to 74.8 in the final nine games. A 74.8 rushing yards per game average would put him on pace for 1,271 yards over 17 games. He was the RB9 during that second-half stint, averaging 14.3 half-PPR PPG. Surprisingly, Harris had very similar first and second-half splits this past season. If you look at his rushing yard per game average, it's again over 70.

Time	RAPG	RuYPG	YPA	TDs	YAC/Att	Half-PPR PPG	RB Rank
Weeks 1-8, 2023	12	313	3.73	1	2.69	7.6	RB39
Weeks 9-18, 2023	17.1	72.2	4.22	7	2.83	12.9	RB18

That graph and table display the two different seasons Harris had last season. After Week 9, he finished as a top-12 running back in 50% of his games. While we typically associate the Steelers with having great offensive lines, that hasn't been the case in recent seasons. However, the Steelers are expected to have a strong group up front this year.

The Steelers used their first two picks in this year's draft on offensive linemen, selecting Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier in the first and second rounds. They drafted Mason McCormick in the fourth round. These improvements up front should help Harris be more efficient with his touches.

Also, Arthur Smith should be a big positive for the rushing game. Smith has called plays for five seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach. In four of those five seasons, his teams have finished in the top 10 in rushing attempts. In three of those five seasons, they finished top-three in rushing attempts.

They also finished in the top 10 in four of the five seasons in rushing yards and three seasons in the top three. His offenses have finished in the top 15 in rushing touchdowns four times, which includes a top-10 finish, and two years where they finished with the second-most.

Given the offensive line upgrades, the improvement at the quarterback position, which will help create more scoring opportunities and an offensive coordinator with a strong history of developing a strong rushing attack, Harris could be a good value this season. He's routinely available in the sixth round. Harris has finished with more than 300 touches in two of his three seasons.

This past season, he finished with 284. Finding a running back with that volume in the sixth round is rare. He's finished with over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eight or more touchdowns in his three seasons. Harris could be a nice value if Warren's injury keeps him out longer or lingers into the season. I'm okay with Harris' ADP rising to RB20-21 with the Warren injury, but anything more than that, and the market is probably overreacting.

Warren was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL last season. He had the fifth-most targets (70) and fifth-most receptions (61). His 15.3% target share ranked sixth among running backs. With Wilson likely starting at quarterback, Warren's involvement in the passing game could be even higher with his penchant for checking the ball down. He had a 1.58-yard-per-route run average, ninth-best among running backs. Warren just checked off box after box after box.

RB’s to finish Top-12 in BOTH YAC/attempt & receiving targets last year:

⁃ Christian McCaffrey
⁃ Breece Hall
⁃ Jaylen Warren
⁃ Tyjae Spears

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) July 3, 2024

This backfield is similar to {Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard for Dallas in 2022. Pollard, like Warren, was one of the most efficient running backs in the league. However, Zeke, like Harris, still ended up touching the ball more than their counterparts. Fantasy managers should expect that to continue in 2024. While Warren's role could grow, he won't overtake Harris regarding total touches. That doesn't mean Warren cannot out-score him or be a valuable fantasy football asset. A big component of that will come down to scoring opportunities. Last year, Harris handled most of the red zone touches in Pittsburgh.

Only two RBs with a 14.0% or better target share in 2023 failed to score at least 17.0 FPG:

+ Bijan Robinson
+ Jaylen Warren

Why?

They each ranked outside the top-45 in red zone attempt share.

Your move, Arthur Smith. pic.twitter.com/xSyTe3XOij

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 11, 2024

Harris handled 50% of the carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to just 22.7% for Warren. From 10-yards out, Harris handled 59.0% of the team's carries, and Warren handled just 20.5%. The lack of touchdown opportunities could limit Warren's upside. There's just no denying, however, that Warren is the better player. He's more explosive.

He's a bigger threat at making big plays. He does more with less. The question becomes how the coaches will interpret all of this. Harris's experience and size are certainly assets to his game, and the Steelers and Tomlin appreciate them. However, Warren continues to make his case for more touches.

Out of 12 and 13-personnel, Jaylen Warren smoked Najee Harris in:

+ Yards per carry (1st among 44 qualifiers)
+ Explosive run rate (1st)
+ Yards after contact/attempt (1st)
+ Yards before contact/attempt (11th)

[via @FantasyPtsData]

Your move, Arthur. https://t.co/OdJkwpCHE3 pic.twitter.com/VS2VD9ROwT

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) July 26, 2024

It's fair to wonder how Warren would handle a bigger workload. Pollard got one last year and did not come close to repeating his insane efficiency from the 2022 season. Might Warren be best used in the role they've deployed him in so that he can be fresh and more explosive? Harris can handle a large workload.

However, given Smith's history for running the football and Wilson's history for checking the ball down, both of these running backs are going to be instrumental and highly involved in Pittsburgh's offense.

One cool way to look at missed tackles forced is filtering for plays with 7+ defenders in the box.

This describes explosiveness on "typical" carries, and levels the playing field between players w/ different roles

Jaylen Warren still passes with flying colors.@FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/kQ2UGg62pD

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) July 9, 2024

It's hard to ignore just how well Warren played, however. It seems as though ever statistic or data point showcases just how good of a season Warren had. At this point, it's hard to argue that Warren is not the better back than Harris, but coaches are not always impressed with stats and numbers.

They have their roles for players; sometimes, that's just how it is. Warren's injury adds another wrinkle fantasy managers will need to decipher. It doesn't sound like a mild hamstring injury, but it is more of a moderate one.

#Steelers RB Jaylen Warren, who left Saturday’s preseason game with a hamstring injury, could miss “a few weeks,” a source confirms.

Warren’s status for Pittsburgh’s Week 1 game vs the #Falcons is currently unclear. pic.twitter.com/1eQhibZaX4

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) August 19, 2024

Hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger. That's the concern with Warren. However, with the injury, his ADP is likely to drop even further, which makes him well worth the price of admission. Fantasy managers should buy Warren at his current cost, but he's likely to get even cheaper in the coming days. Harris is a decent buy at RB24, but I fear his ADP is likely to grow with Warren's injury, and he could start creeping closer to RB20 or possibly even inside the top 20 for running backs.

That's a concern; at that price, fantasy managers should be out. I'd prefer to target Harris in the sixth round, around RB22-25, but if he starts to creep inside the fifth and up near RB20 or inside of it, fantasy managers are likely best looking elsewhere.

Verdict: Buy Najee Harris at Current Price (Careful with his likely increasing ADP) and Buy Jaylen Warren (especially with the likely decreased ADP)

 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

George Pickens: WR28, ADP 57
Roman Wilson: WR76, ADP 233
Van Jefferson: WR103, ADP 329

If fantasy managers look at where Pickens finished for fantasy football, they may not fully appreciate the kind of season he had. However, Pickens had a full-blown breakout season last year, and if the Steelers had a quarterback closer to Derek Carr (a very low bar) and not Zach Wilson (the kind of quarterback play they received), Pickens may have fulfilled his fantasy promise.

Pickens finished the season as the WR26 with an 11.1 half-PPR PPG average. That may not seem like a breakout performance, but again, there was only so much he could do given his situation. The Steelers passing game finished with these numbers:

• 29th in Pass Attempts
• 21st in Completion Percentage
• 25th in Passing Yards
• 30th in Passing Touchdowns
• 23rd in Yards Per Attempt
• 21st in Quarterback Rating
• 28th in Total Points Scored
• 25th in Total Yards Gained

With that level of ineptitude on offense and at the quarterback position, there’s only so much a receiver can do. Not surprisingly, Pickens was a boom-or-bust pass-catcher this past season. He had four top-12 weekly performances, two top-25 finishes, and nine weeks where he finished below WR40. However, Pickens showed up and showed out in the fantasy playoffs. He scored 33.5 half-PPR points in Week 16 (WR2) and 16.6 half-PPR points in Week 17 (WR11).

While some of Pickens’ efficiency stats aren’t nearly as high as others, it’s important to remember just how poorly of a situation he was dealing with. Pickens finished with 106 targets (28th-most) and 63 receptions (36th) but still managed to finish with 1,140 yards (16th-most). He did this by having the highest yards-per-reception average among receivers with at least 50 targets (18.1 YPR). Considering the trio of quarterbacks he was catching the ball from -- Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph -- that deserves some major props right there.

Only 4 WR’s in NFL HISTORY have posted 60+ receptions & averaged 18.0+ YPR in a season by age 22.

⁃ Randy Moss
⁃ Josh Gordon
⁃ Ja’Marr Chase
⁃ George Pickens

George Pickens is an ELITE deep-threat. pic.twitter.com/KS49j3YSiJ

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) January 12, 2024

He also averaged 10.8 yards per target, which trailed only Brandon Aiyuk and Nico Collins. He was a menace after the catch, averaging 6.2 yards. That was the seventh-best number among receivers with at least 50 targets. Since just 68.9% of his targets were deemed catchable, which ranked 61st among receivers, it was a good thing Pickens was so sure-handed because he didn’t get a lot of opportunities. His 1.9% drop rate was the sixth-lowest.

Looking towards 2024, fantasy managers can see plenty of untapped potential. He had 1,428 air yards (18th-most) and a 37.8% air yard share (15th), but still managed to finish with the 16th-most unrealized air yards (676). Give him a more accurate quarterback, and Pickens could easily take another step forward next season. Despite his quarterbacks' inefficiencies, Pickens still had a very impressive yards-per-route run average of 2.20, the 17th-highest, and averaged 2.25 yards per team pass attempt (11th-best).

The Steelers traded Kenny Pickett, brought in Russell Wilson, and traded for Justin Fields. Now, Wilson isn’t great. This is not the Seattle Seahawks' Russell Wilson, but the bar to be better than Pickett is incredibly low, and Wilson clears it by a country mile. Consider the stats below:

Stat/Quarterback	Russell Wilson	Kenny Pickett
Deep Ball Attempts Per Game	4.3	2.6
Pressured Completion %	63.6%	53.8%
Red Zone Completion %	62.3%	43.8%
Clean Pocket Completion %	67.6%	64.8%
Off-Target Completion %	13.2%	18.4%
On-Target Completion %	77.9%	71.6%
True Passer Rating	101.0	76.7
Yards Per Attempt	6.9	6.4
Completion %	66.4%	62.0%
Touchdown Rate	5.8%	1.9%
Quarterback Rating	98.0	81.4

The numbers speak for speak for themselves. Whatever you think of Wilson, he’s much better than Pickett. Pickett is on the Zach Wilson level. Wilson is on the Derek Carr level. Neither is great, but one is a lot better than the other. Now, that’s just one piece of the situational improvement. The other is the Diontae Johnson trade. Now check this out.

Stat	With Diontae	Without Diontae
Games	13	4
Targets	5.69 (97)	8.25 (140)
Receptions	3.54 (60)	4.25 (72)
Yards	60.23 (1,024)	89.25 (1,517)
Touchdowns	0.23 (4)	0.50 (8)
Half-PPR PPG	9.19 (156)	14.45 (246)

Some of you might be worried about the new offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith. I get it. His stint in Atlanta was rough. However, some of that can be attributed to the quarterbacks he was forced to play. Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder… there’s only so much a coach can do. In 2019, the Titans, with Smith as offensive coordinator, finished 10th in points and 12th in yards. In 2020, they were fourth in points and second in yards. In his final season in Tennessee (2021), they finished 15th in points and 17th in yards. Not too shabby, am I right? Also, look at Smith’s No. 1 receivers from 2020-2023, excluding 2019, which was A.J. Brown’s rookie season.

• AJ Brown, 2020: 25.9% (9th highest)
• AJ Brown, 2021: 27.0% (9th highest)
• Drake London, 2022: 29.4% (5th highest)
• Drake London, 2023: 23.3% (25th highest)

Those are some elite target shares! We can be wary of Smith as the offensive coordinator. That's fair. We can also be concerned about Wilson and/or Fields being able to get Pickens to reach his ceiling. That's also fair, although it should be noted that D.J. Moore was a top-10 receiver with Fields last year in Chicago. However, those concerns are baked into Pickens' price. He's currently being drafted behind where he finished last season with Kenny Pickett at quarterback. The biggest concern is the lingering Brandon Aiyuk trade, but as long as he stays in San Francisco, Pickens is a buy.

Wilson dealt with a sprained ankle in training camp and, based on preseason utilization, does not appear close to regular playing time. Instead, Jefferson looks locked into that No. 2 receiver role opposite Pickens. There are a couple of things that make Wilson a sell. First, it's that injury during camp. That took him off the field and negatively affected his ability to move up the depth chart.

This offense will have limited passing volume, and it'll be difficult for any receiver to break through to fantasy relevance. Freiermuth's bar to fantasy relevance, being a tight end, is much lower. Offseason reports have also indicated that Calvin Austin III has had a good training camp and appears to be working ahead of Wilson.

Given how far Wilson has to go to get into a position on the depth chart where he's playing regular minutes, fantasy managers still cannot trust Wilson or this offense to support two fantasy-relevant receivers. Wilson is a promising player, but he doesn't enter the league with the same talent profile or college production as other receivers. He was marginally used in his first three years at Michigan, posting a combined 90 targets, 59 receptions, 918 yards, and eight touchdowns.

It wasn't until his fourth and final season that Wilson broke out, finishing with 67 targets, 48 receptions, 789 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He did post a 2.00 or higher yard-per-route run average in each of his final three seasons at Michigan. He was drafted in the third round, and while he's certainly someone to keep an eye on in dynasty football, he's not a rookie fantasy managers need to be targeting in redraft leagues. He's a sell.

That brings us to Van Jefferson. He's been in the league for four seasons but has only one season with more than 50 targets. He has only one season with more than 25 receptions. He also only has one season over 375 yards. This past season, he spent time between the Rams and the Falcons.

Changing teams mid-seasons is hard for anyone, but Jefferson really hasn't shown us much throughout his career. His best season came in 2021, his second season in the league, when he finished with 89 targets, 50 receptions, 802 yards, and six touchdowns. He finished that season as the WR49 with an 8.4 half-PPR PPG.

Van Jefferson led the Steelers WRs in snaps and targets with Russell Wilson. Clearly is the #2 behind Pickens as of now

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) August 18, 2024

Before switching teams this past year, he posted a 14.8% target share in 2021 and 15.3% in 2022. Assuming he can bounce back to having a 15% target share, Jefferson can be expected to finish with 75-85 targets. That volume, especially in a below-average offense, won't do fantasy managers much good.

However, he has a career of 14.2 yards per reception average and has been a decent deep threat. Wilson also posted an above-average touchdown rate last season. Those two components, at least, gives him a chance to be a dart throw in best ball leagues. However, in managed redraft leagues, Jefferson can also be avoided.

Verdict: Buy George Pickens, Sell Roman Wilson, and Dart Throws at Van Jefferson in Best Ball Only

 

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Pat Freiermuth: TE15, ADP 126

Freiermuth is likely a player many fantasy managers have forgotten about, especially after his dreadful 2023 season. Based on current drafting data, Freiermuth is available in the 11th round as the TE15. That makes him one of fantasy football's best tight-end values this season.

Freiermuth struggled with an injury-plagued second season in 2023. He played just 64.0% of snaps compared to 70% in 2022. He had eight games with a snap share below 67% out of just 12 games, a 66.7% rate. In 2022, he had just five games out of 16 contests, a 31.2% rate.

Injuries happen, and they can negatively impact a player’s performance. Freiermuth, no doubt, fell victim to that last season, but we shouldn’t forget what he did in 2022, just his second season in the league. Let me refresh your memory...

Target Share	19.0% (9th)
Target Rate	24.9% (7th)
Targets	98 (5th)
Receptions	63 (6th)
Receiving Yards	732 (6th)
Air Yards	849 (4th)
Unrealized Air Yards	403 (4th)
Yards Per Route Run	1.86 (7th)
Yards Per Reception	11.3 (13th)
Yards Per Team Pass Attempt	1.35 (9th)
Red Zone Targets	10 (15th)
Total Touchdowns	2 (32nd)
Half-PPR PPG	8.3 (TE9)

He posted top-10 numbers in basically every statistic across the board. Every statistic except total touchdowns, where he posted just two. Just two touchdowns despite having the fifth-most targets, sixth-most receptions, and 15th-most red-zone targets. That doesn't make much sense, but when you consider that his quarterback was Kenny Pickett, who has arguably been just as bad as Zach Wilson, it makes much more sense.

Since 2000, 36 quarterbacks have attempted at least 450 passes in their first two seasons in the NFL. Pickett's 1.8% touchdown rate is the worst, and the only player below 2.1%. For goodness sake, Zach Wilson and Josh Rosen are at 2.4%. Pickett had the sixth-worst quarterback rating and fourth-worst yard-per-attempt average. Through his first two seasons in the NFL, Pickett is in the same group as Wilson, Rosen, and Drew Lock. That's how bad he's been.

Freiermuth has had to deal with that in each of the past two seasons, but no more! This offseason, the Steelers signed Russell Wilson as their starting quarterback. Below, you'll see just how big of a difference even Wilson can be when compared to Pickett. The table below was featured under Pickens, so you're likely familiar with it at this point, but it's significant enough that it's worth pointing out again.

Stat/Quarterback	Russell Wilson	Kenny Pickett
Deep Ball Attempts Per Game	4.3	2.6
Pressured Completion %	63.6%	53.8%
Red Zone Completion %	62.3%	43.8%
Clean Pocket Completion %	67.6%	64.8%
Off-Target Completion %	13.2%	18.4%
On-Target Completion %	77.9%	71.6%
True Passer Rating	101.0	76.7
Yards Per Attempt	6.9	6.4
Completion %	66.4%	62.0%
Touchdown Rate	5.8%	1.9%
Quarterback Rating	98.0	81.4

The numbers speak for themselves, but pay attention to their red-zone completion percentage and touchdown rate. Looking back at Freiermuth's 2022 season, when he had just two touchdowns and a touchdown rate of just 2.0%, it's safe to point a lot of the blame at Pickett. Last season, Wilson's red-zone completion percentage was 18.5 percentage points higher, and his touchdown rate was 3.9 percentage points better. That difference is astronomical. If they each throw just 550 passes, the difference is 22 (!!!) touchdowns.

Wilson will likely be the best quarterback Freiermuth has ever played with in his young season. Even if Wilson falters, Pittsburgh also traded for Justin Fields. Fields helped Cole Kmet as the TE8 last year in half-PPR PPG. Kmet finished with 91 targets, 73 receptions, 719 yards, and six touchdowns. He was eighth in yards per route run and ninth in yards per target. It doesn't matter. Whoever is under center will be better than Pickett.

With Freiermuth fully healthy, we should see the player who started to emerge in his second season. If fantasy managers get that player along with a better quarterback from Wilson, as illustrated in the table above, it wouldn't be a shock to see Freiermuth finish inside the top 12 and possibly even the top 10. He did that already in 2022 with just two touchdowns and Pickett at the helm. Why can't he do it again this season? He's a buy this season!

Verdict: Buy Pat Freiermuth

 

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