Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Cincinnati Bengals as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The Bengals had a down season last year and missed the playoffs. Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins missed multiple games. Their offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan, went to the Titans to become their head coach. Cincinnati seems to have a chip on their shoulder. Higgins is playing for a contract. Ja'Marr Chase, at least as of right now, is too. Burrow wants to prove that he can win the big game and wants to put his name back at the front of the best quarterbacks in the world. This is a team worth betting on this season.

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Joe Burrow: QB7, ADP 62

Seeing a player’s ADP reflect the market’s understanding that injuries happen is so refreshing! Burrow was hurt last year. He was clearly not himself for the first few weeks of the season. You could see that in his play. You can see that in the statistics by comparing his first six weeks of the 2023 season to his 2021 and 2022 seasons. We can easily and definitively say that was not the Joe Burrow we know.

From 2021-2022, he averaged 21.9 PPG. That would’ve been good for a QB3 finish. In his three games after their Week 7 bye, where Burrow admitted he finally felt like himself again, he averaged 23.9 PPG. He finished as the QB4, QB6, and QB7 in those contests. From 2021-2022, Burrow finished five times as “the” QB1. He finished as a top-six quarterback 11 times and a top-12 quarterback 21 times, 67.7% of the time. He had three games where he scored between 25.0-29.9 points, three scoring between 30.0-34.9 points, and two scoring over 35. Now, “that” is the Joe Burrow we know.

There’s reason to believe he could be even better in 2024. In 2021-2022, Cincinnati had a neutral pass rate of 62.3%, the fifth-highest in the NFL. However, during this two-year stretch, they also employed Joe Mixon. Mixon had 502 carries during this span, seventh-most in the NFL. Cincinnati also ranked just 11th in pass attempts per game. With Mixon now in Houston and Cincinnati having replaced him with journeymen Zack Moss and second-year running back Chase Brown, could we see an even more pass-heavy attack? The answer is yes. Cincinnati could have the highest neutral pass rate in the NFL this season, and you can almost guarantee they’ll be higher than 11th in pass attempts per game, where they ranked from 2021-2022 when Burrow was still dominating.

I'm working on 2024 projections for the Cincinnati Bengals and feel like they could pass a lot more after finally moving on from Joe Mixon.

The following data covers the 2021-23 seasons:

CIN first down pass rate:
61% -- Joe Burrow ON, Joe Mixon OFF
50% -- Burrow+Mixon ON

CIN…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 22, 2024

In the past couple of years, Cincinnati’s offense has been hampered by injuries. Whether that be Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tee Higgins. If we eliminate the first six games of the season last year when Burrow’s calf was still an issue, this trio played just two games all year where they all logged 50% of the snaps. In 2022, however, there were 12 such games. Burrow averaged 278.3 yards and 2.16 touchdowns per game in those contests. Over 17 games, we’re talking about 4,731 yards and 37 touchdowns. He averaged 23.6 PPG in those contests. Folks, that is really, really good.

Joe Burrow + Bengals stacks are going to feed generations of your family after you win all of the best ball money

Last three seasons, Burrow is...
* QB5 in FPG
* QB3 in passing yards per game
* QB4 in TD rate
* QB5 in YPA

+ Bengals were #2 in pass rate over expected when…

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 8, 2024

One thing that likely doesn’t get talked about enough is that he’s an underrated rusher. In 2021, it was his first season back following his ACL tear. Not going to run much there. In 2023, he had his calf injury. However, in 2022, he had 257 rushing yards and five scores. He’s not Lamar Jackson. He’s not even Trevor Lawrence on the ground, but he’s certainly not Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr. Having 260 yards of rushing and three touchdowns is still an extra 2.58 PPG. That’s not nothing. If we get full, healthy seasons from Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, plus an increased pass rate, Burrow can finish in the top three, especially if he’s chipping in 2.5 PPG via rushing. He’s a player to buy this season.

Verdict: Buy Joe Burrow

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Zack Moss: RB26, ADP 77
Chase Brown: RB39, ADP 112

Joe Mixon was traded to the Houston Texans this past offseason. Cincinnati signed Zack Moss, formerly of the Indianapolis Colts, to offset that loss. From 2017-2023, Mixon's per-game averages equated to 275 carries, 61 targets, and 50 receptions. Last year, Bengals running backs combined for 318 carries, 89 targets, and 74 receptions. They combined for 311 carries, 133 targets, and 103 receptions the year before. In 2021, Bengals running backs had 379 carries, 98 targets, and 85 receptions. During Joe Burrow's rookie season in 2020, their running backs had 353 carries, 108 targets, and 89 receptions. Those four-year averages equate to 340 total carries, 107 targets, and 88 receptions. We can reasonably expect those numbers to decrease due to the state of the backfield, but as you can see, there will still be plenty of touches to go around.

Regardless of how "talented" you think Mixon was, he was a player the coaches trusted. That matters! With Moss coming over from Indianapolis, his second team in four seasons, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting him to become the bell-cow or the clear No. 1 option. Moss has had more than 130 touches in four seasons just once. He only has one season with over 600 scrimmage yards in his career. He is, however, coming off the best season of his career, filling in admirably for Jonathan Taylor.

Moss finished last season with 183 carries, 794 yards, and five touchdowns. He also chipped in 37 targets, 27 receptions, 192 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. He was efficient with his opportunities last season. Among 48 running backs with at least 100 carries, he finished:

• 18th in yards per carry (4.23)
• 31st in explosive run (carries of 15 yards or more) rate (3.5%)
• 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24)
• 29th in yards after contact per attempt (2.59)

As you can see, Moss was good. He was not great, but he was a quality runner last season and came at a cheaper cost than they were paying Mixon. Brown was their fifth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. While many view him as a pass-catching specialist or a scat back, he weighed 215 pounds at the combine. He has the size for a three-down role. Brown had 499 carries, 2,637 yards, and 15 touchdowns in his final two years of college at Illinois. He averaged 5.28 yards per carry. He also had 49 targets, 41 receptions, and 382 receiving yards. He posted a 1.06-yard per route run average. In his final season at Illinois, he had 83 missed tackles forced, the third-highest in the country.

Brown played sparingly as a rookie, logging just 93 snaps total. His rushing success rate was just 34.1%, dead last among 77 running backs with at least 40 carries. He finished with just 44, so we're working on a small sample size. Despite the poor consistency, Brown flashed big play potential. He posted a 9.1% breakaway run rate, almost three times higher than Moss's. He also averaged more yards after contact (3.09) and had more missed tackles forced per attempt rate (0.25).

As evidenced by the number of routes run by each player, we're once again working off of a very small sample, especially for Brown. Are his numbers realistic? Absolutely not, but he displayed the ability to hit the big play. He showed explosiveness, which Mixon hasn't had the past few seasons, and Moss likely lacks, as well. Reports from the training camp have indicated that Brown is playing more with the starters than Moss. How much are we to read into that?

Realistically, fantasy managers should expect a committee approach to this backfield, and it's possible that either player could emerge as the No. 1 guy. The most likely outcome is that we have a 1A and a 1B scenario. It shouldn't be surprising if the rushing workload is split 55/45 between the two, with Moss commanding more of the work. Given his size and willingness to get the simple yards, Moss is a better bet for short-yardage and goal-line situations.

Brown is likely to have the advantage when it comes to receiving work. He should be viewed as Cincinnati's most likely third-down and pass-catching back. It's important to note that Moss signed just a two-year deal, while Brown is a player they drafted last season and seem to have enough faith that they only felt they needed to add someone like Moss. That should be viewed as a vote of confidence for the young player.

#Bengals HC Zac Taylor on his favorite thing he’s seen from Chase Brown in camp:

“Consistency… Chase has been very consistent, and that’s what we’re counting on from him. He didn’t get a ton of opportunity last year, and so now is the first time he’s really getting a bunch of… pic.twitter.com/O0sqrA3CyJ

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 5, 2024

Based on the running back touch totals during Burrow's stint in Cincinnati, we can reasonably expect the running backs to have 310-330 total carries and 80-95 targets. A reasonable expectation of the workload distribution is for Moss to handle 55% of the carries and 35% of the targets. Conversely, Brown would handle 40% of the carries and 60% of the targets. That would leave 10% for both carries and targets to the RB3 and RB4. This would leave Moss finishing with between 171-182 carries and 28-33 targets. Brown would have roughly 124-132 carries and 48-57 targets.

Given those projections, Moss would finish with roughly 882-958 total yards and 21-25 receptions. Brown would finish with roughly 842-920 total yards and 38-45 receptions. Moss is the better bet for having 7-9 touchdowns, while Brown is likelier to have 4-6. Based on these projections, Moss is likely being drafted close to his ceiling, which is always dangerous for fantasy managers.

The other thing to remember is that we'll likely see less rushing volume for the Cincinnati offense, which will negatively impact Moss more than Brown. Moss being drafted ahead of Jaylen Warren, Tony Pollard, and Javonte Williams indicates he's being solidly over-valued. He's a clear sell. Brown, on the other hand, is intriguing. He showed flashes as a rookie, and his competition was not overly intimidating. There's certainly an avenue he operates as the team's No. 1A back, which would put him in a great position to outplay his current ADP solidly. He's a buy.

Verdict: Sell Zack Moss and Buy Chase Brown

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Ja'Marr Chase: WR4, ADP 7
Tee Higgins: WR26, ADP 55
Jermaine Burton: WR75, ADP 216

Let me preface this by saying that Tee Higgins is an absolute steal. A steal. Last year, Higgins played nine games where he logged at least a 50% snap share. He averaged 12.03 half-PPR PPG. That would have been WR20 last season. DeVonta Smith averaged 11.7 PPG. Chris Olave averaged 11.6. Both players are being drafted ahead of him and way ahead of him in the case of Olave. The funny thing is that this isn't the first time. In 2022, Higgins finished as the WR12 with a 13.2 half-PPR PPG in 16 games. DeVonta Smith averaged 12.3 PPG, and Olave was down at 10.7 PPG. This isn't about Smith or Olave, though. This is about Higgins!

In 2021, Higgins finished as the WR12 again, this time with a 13.0 half-PPR PPG average. His ADP has fallen to where it is this year because he struggled with injuries last year, missing five games. However, in one of the 12 games he played in, he scored 0, and he played under 55% of the snaps in three others. So why is he so low? He burned people last year. Recency bias. Because fantasy managers think they can predict injuries. Pick any of those three. Maybe it's a combination of them all, but whatever it is, the reasoning isn't based on facts rather than on feelings. That's a dangerous way to come to conclusions. I've taken the time to review all the games from the past two seasons (2022-2023), where Burrow, Chase, and Higgins all played at least 50% of the snaps. In total, there were 17 games. The results are below.

First, we need to give credit where credit is due; Chase is a certified alpha. He has "the" WR1 in his range of outcomes, but we'll get to him in just a second. Let's stick with Higgins for a second. Now, many of these games included Tyler Boyd, a dependable slot receiver who commanded more targets and volume than likely any of the receivers Cincinnati rolls out in the WR3 role this season. This is also using the passing volume from 2022-2023. We've already touched on why there's a good chance Cincinnati passes more this season, increasing the upside and volume for all of their pass-catchers.

However, Higgins still finished with 129 targets, 78 receptions, and 1,018 yards despite that. He averaged 12.68 half-PPR PPG. Last year that would have been WR19. In 2022, it would have been WR13. At WR26, fantasy managers are buying Higgins on his floor. There is a whole wealth of upside. He showed that to us last year. He showed that to us in 2022 and again in 2021. All he needs to do is stay healthy, which, before last year, he had done. From 2020-2022, Higgins played in 46 of 50 regular season games. He logged seasons of 16, 14, and 16 games.

Even if we take his stats at face value and do not eliminate games he played fewer than 50% of the snaps or remove games where Burrow wasn't the starter, from 2021-2023, Higgins has compiled 295 targets, 190 receptions, 2,776 yards, and 18 touchdowns. He's done that in 42 games, counting all of the games. Even the 14% snap count ones. If we break that down by per-game averages and multiply those averages by 17, we'd get 119 targets, 77 receptions, 1,124 yards, and seven touchdowns.

Sometimes, this game doesn't have to be so difficult. Higgins has finished as a WR1 in two of his last three seasons in half-PPR PPG. The one year he didn't, he struggled with injuries, and his quarterback missed many games. Now, because of that, you can draft him at WR26. Joe Burrow is an MVP-candidate quarterback. The Bengals will be one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. Just draft Tee Higgins. It's easy.

Come to think of it, just draft Chase too. I love Justin Jefferson, and I believe that Jefferson is a better receiver than Chase all-around, but Jefferson will be catching passes from either Sam Darnold or a rookie who barely threw the ball in college. As long as Burrow is healthy, Cincinnati's offense will be top-10 in points scored, pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Minnesota will not be that, even in the best outcome. Fantasy football isn't just about talent. It's about production, and for receivers to be productive, they need the help of the system and their teammates. In that sense, I trust Chase's situation much more than I trust Jefferson's, so I'm taking Chase over Jefferson this season.

If we look at the table above, Chase finished with 163 targets, 112 receptions, and 1,292 yards. There are yards unaccounted for there. Fantasy managers should not expect Chase to average just 11.5 yards per reception. There is a much higher ceiling than 1,300 yards, which is nothing to slouch at when a player of Chase's caliber gets 163 targets over a full season from Joe Burrow. That's really what we're betting on with Chase; considering Burrow and Chase's talents, it feels like a good bet. We're betting on health and two of the best positions at their position, maximizing their opportunities.

From 2021-2022, when Burrow was fully healthy, averaged 16.56 half-PPR PPG in Weeks 1-17. In 2022, Chase wasn't 100% for the latter part of the year after missing a few games due to a hip injury. 16.56 half-PPR PPG last year would have been WR4. Overall, Chase's price is more than fair. He still has an upside at his given price, and personally, I'd take him over Jefferson, but it's hard to be a "buy" when you're going No. 7 overall, and we're not about to squabble over 1-2 spots. He's going in the right spot in drafts, but I like his chances to give fantasy managers a positive return. Higgins is a screaming buy all day long.

The Bengals selected Burton in the third round, and many draft scouts and analysts thought he had second or even first-round talent. Unfortunately, Burton is said to have character issues and off-the-field problems, which is what caused his draft stock to slip. We won't get into any of that. Burton is an exciting prospect. Burton began his career at Georgia, where he logged 52 targets, 27 receptions, 404 yards, and three touchdowns as a true freshman. Those numbers for an 18-year-old are nothing to scoff at, especially in the SEC. Unfortunately, his role decreased in his sophomore season. While that’s never ideal, looking at the Bulldogs roster, you can begin to understand why that happened. The team welcomed Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey, and Adonai Mitchell. Most of those names are bound to sound familiar.

He transferred to Alabama and immediately became their No. 1 receiver for the 2022 season, finishing with 58 targets, 40 receptions, 677 yards, and seven touchdowns. He had a strong 73.6 PFF receiving grade, following up a sophomore season with a 72.1 score. Burton led Alabama in receiving again this past season, finishing with 57 targets, 39 receptions, 798 yards, and eight touchdowns. His PFF receiving grade bumped up to 82.0.

From 2021-2023, Burton posted three straight seasons of a 70 or higher PFF receiving score and a yards-per-route run average of over 2.00. He finished with his best yards per route average this past season at 2.75. Out of 286 receivers with at least 50 targets, this ranked 25th. While Burton was not a target hog in college, he proved to be a quality downfield option, finishing with a 16.8 average depth of target. This past season, his 20.5 yards per reception average was the sixth-highest in the county out of the previously used sample. Over the last three years, he has also been excellent in contested catch situations, coming down with 16 of 28 for a 57.1% catch rate.

He's a "better in best ball" type of player because his role and volume will be inconsistent week-to-week, but he has big-play potential. The problem is that he's a rookie, and from training camp reports, Andrei Iosivas, a sixth-round pick from the 2023 NFL Draft, is turning heads and playing well. It's unlikely either player becomes the full-time, No. 3 receiver that Boyd was, which lowers both of their fantasy values. They both have strong contingency value if Higgins or Chase were to get hurt and miss time, but at this time, it's hard to know who the biggest beneficiary of that given scenario would be. For that reason, Burton's price is fair. He will probably not be fantasy-relevant without an injury, but he might have a splash in a week or two.

Verdict: Fair Price on Ja'Marr Chase, Buy Tee Higgins, and Fair Price on Jermaine Burton

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Mike Gesicki: TE28, ADP 232

The truth is, we don't know who the starting tight end will be for the Bengals. Gesicki is two years removed from being a starter and turn 29 in October. The Bengals also have Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson, rookies Erick All Jr., and Tanner McLachlan. The reality is that fantasy managers shouldn't get excited about drafting any of these guys because it will be a committee approach. Last year, Sample played the most snaps for the Bengals. He finished with a 45.7% snap share. Between Sample, Hudson, Irv Smith, and Mitchell Wilcox last year, there were just three games where a tight end logged a snap share higher than 65% in any game last season. Six games had a tight end with a snap share higher than 60%. This was, and will still be a full-blown committee.

Last year, the Cincinnati tight ends combined for 115 targets, 88 receptions, 686 yards, and four touchdowns. Those numbers are okay, but only if someone finishes 75% of them. That would still be 86 targets, 66 receptions, and 515 yards. The problem is 75% isn't going to happen. As noted, no tight end had a snap share higher than 50% last year. Hudson finished last season with 210 routes and a route participation rate of just 42.9%. That was the best.

Last year's numbers are even slightly inflated with the loss of Burrow. In 2022, when Burrow played the entire season, the Cincinnati Bengals finished with just 92 targets, 73 receptions, 556 yards, and three touchdowns. To be fair, in 2022, Boyd was still on the roster as the team's No. 3 target-earner, and Cincinnati may not have that kind of player this season. The most likely outcome in that scenario isn't that one of these random tight ends becomes relevant. Chase and Higgins have huge years because we know them to be good.

Gesicki barely played last year with the Patriots. He was benched in 2022 with the Miami Dolphins. However, if we go back far enough, in 2021, Gesicki had 112 targets, 73 receptions, and 780 yards. He had 85 targets, 53 receptions, and 703 yards the year before. In 2019 as a sophomore, he had 89 targets, 51 receptions, and 570 receptions. Gesicki does have a history of earning targets and being a fantasy-relevant player. If you're taking a swing, he's probably the guy to do it, and I hope the team opts to replace Boyd with him, utilizing him as a big slot receiver.

That will certainly be the case sometimes, but will it be consistent enough? Given the lack of tight end production from this year in recent seasons, the price on Gesicki is fair. Yes, he's had some fantasy-relevant seasons, but he's never been better than a backend TE1, so he's never demonstrated a high ceiling. His best seasons were 3-5 years ago. He's since been benched by not one but two different teams. Gesicki is likely nothing more than a touchdown-dependent TE3. However, he plays on a great offense, with a great quarterback, and on an offense that will have a ton of passing attempts. There's nothing wrong with taking a few dart throws on that player, but I wouldn't recommend going crazy.

Verdict: Fair Price on Mike Gesicki (Take a few dart throws)

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