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Merry Christmas, RotoBallers! I can't believe we've already reached Week 17. This year the NFL is sliding down the chimney and gifting us two awesome matchups for this special holiday slate that features the Ravens vs. Texans and Steelers vs. Chiefs.
The Christmas Day slate figures to be a unique animal, as we're likely to see lots of duplicate lineups with just two games to choose from. Being unique in your roster construction can certainly be a bit risky, but it can also be very profitable - and almost necessary - in this type of environment. As a result, this article's write-ups will touch on one "core" play at each position and also on a "pivot" play that might be a bit contrarian.
Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE in 2024! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups -- let's dominate this special slate together!
DraftKings Quarterbacks - Christmas Day DFS Picks
Core Play: Lamar Jackson - BAL at HOU ($8,000)
Lamar Jackson has slate-breaking DFS potential in any environment, but that's especially true on a two-game slate such as this one, where we will likely need as close as possible to the optimal lineup to take down a big score.
Not rostering the Ravens' dynamic quarterback - who has topped 35 DraftKings points three times this season and is averaging 26.4 DK points per game - could mean you have no chance of winning a GPP on Christmas Day.
Lamar Jackson: Good at football.
🟦 91.9 overall grade (Highest in NFL)
— All-22 (@All22_PFF) December 21, 2024
The narrative surrounding Jackson is that his MVP campaign has cooled off in recent weeks, but you wouldn't be able to tell it by his DFS output.
Sure, there's been a couple of underwhelming-by-his-standards outings against the Steelers, but if we take out those performances Jackson has averaged 29.5 DK points per game since Week 10, and that's despite facing a couple of the league's tougher defenses in the Eagles and Chargers during that stretch.
While an overall rugged Texans defense isn't one we'd normally go out of our way to target, there are some hints that Jackson could find success against DeMeco Ryans' unit. Houston is tied for last in the league with 29 passing TDs allowed to opposing QBs. It also ranks near the bottom in yards per carry allowed to the QB position this season.
Pivot Play: C.J. Stroud - BAL at HOU ($6,000)
The second-year pro has failed to live up to expectations in 2024 following a breakout rookie campaign last year. A big part of Stroud's issues this season has been his lack of decent protection - he's attempted the NFL's second-most passes under pressure - and constant injuries to his top receivers (this gets even worse with the recent loss of Tank Dell for the year).
These factors might make Stroud's Christmas Day ownership low, though there's reason to believe he's capable of a spike performance against Baltimore in the domed environment of NRG Stadium. The Ravens field one of the league's most prominent pass-funnel defenses.
They have yielded the NFL's second-fewest rushing yards but have also relinquished the league's second-most passing yards. While Houston would probably prefer to lean on Joe Mixon in this one, they might have no choice but to put this game in Stroud's hands.
DraftKings Running Backs - Christmas Day DFS Picks
Core Play: Derrick Henry - BAL at HOU ($8,200)
The Christmas Day slate is a brutal runout for the running back position, as all four of the teams in action on Wednesday feature run defenses that are ranked inside the NFL's top 10. So, in the absence of great matchup availability, Derrick Henry is perhaps the greatest bet-on-talent player in recent history.
If anyone can overcome a less-than-stellar matchup, it's The King. His elite goal-line usage means that he can overcome limited rushing production to still post strong DFS results.
Though the Texans - a team that Henry routinely destroyed during his time in Tennessee - are one of just five NFL defenses allowing less than four yards per carry this season, would it really surprise you if the legend breaks off a 60-yard run at some point and finds the end zone multiple times from the goal line?
Pivot Play: Kareem Hunt - KC at PIT ($5,200)
Most assumed that the return of Isiah Pacheco to the Kansas City backfield would result in Kareem Hunt being banished to irrelevancy. However, Hunt leads the Chiefs backfield with a 38.6% snap share while serving as the primary pass-catching back for this offense.
Kareem Hunt puts the nail in the coffin for the Chiefs to beat the Texans 🤯 pic.twitter.com/5KjxLxONfe
— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) December 21, 2024
The veteran was more effective than Pacheco in KC's Week 16 win over the Texans, totaling 79 all-purpose yards and a TD on 14 opportunities. His role in this offense remains prominent enough to earn him GPP consideration on this two-game slate against a Steelers defense allowing an 80% catch rate and 6.54 yards per target to opposing running backs this season.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Christmas Day DFS Picks
Core Play: Nico Collins - BAL at HOU ($8,300)
Collins remains the last man standing in a Texans receiving corps that's been decimated by injuries in 2024. With Tank Dell joining Stefon Diggs on Injured Reserve following a horrific injury last week, the uber-talented Collins will be tasked with shouldering even more of the load for this Houston passing attack.
Nico Collins with filthy release off the LOS 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/gy0UWeLReH
— Ray G (@RayGQue) December 21, 2024
Averaging an elite 3.17 yards per route run, he draws a Christmas Day matchup against a Ravens secondary that's been one of the league's weakest in 2024. Baltimore has been blasted repeatedly through the air this season and has coughed up the NFL's second-most DraftKings points to the WR position.
Pivot Play: Calvin Austin III - KC at PIT ($4,200)
With George Pickens sidelined over Pittsburgh's last two, Austin has served as Russell Wilson's primary target and garnered 10 total looks since Week 15. The former University of Memphis track star has amassed 130 yards and nine catches in Pittsburgh's last two games and - with Pickens currently questionable for Christmas Day - would again serve as the Steelers' WR1 if Pickens can't go against the Chiefs.
While the Kansas City defense is one to respect, we're forced to make some tough decisions on a two-game slate such as this one. The Chiefs have relinquished a 64.1% catch rate and 15 TDs to the WR position in 2024 while ranking middle of the pack in receptions and yards allowed.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Christmas Day DFS Picks
Core Play: Dalton Schultz - BAL at HOU ($4,100)
While some small slates can be absolutely ugly at the tight end position, we get the gift of choices on this Christmas Day slate. It kind of feels weird to tag Schultz as a core play on a slate that features TE heavy hitters such as Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
However, while we know that Kelce and Andrews are capable of big scores at any given time, the Houston tight end might arguably be in a better spot to succeed this week.
Thanks to the almost comical number of injuries to the Texans' receiving corps, Schultz has essentially been vaulted into the role of the team's de facto WR2 behind Nico Collins. He's coming off a Week 16 outing in which he tied a season-high with eight targets that resulted in five catches for 45 yards and a score.
Schultz will continue to be peppered with targets this week against a Ravens squad that's coughed up 880 receiving yards and four TD catches to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play: Pat Freiermuth - KC at PIT ($3,900)
Before last week's clunker, "Muth" had been on a heater that included three straight games with double-digit DraftKings points. He's an interesting buy-low candidate on Christmas against a Chiefs defense whose Achilles' heel this season has been the tight end position.
Pat Freiermuth has been targeted 50 times and has 44 receptions so far this season. That's an 88% catch percentage. pic.twitter.com/v3KtaQrkxh
— Billy Hartford (@CamHeywardFan) December 12, 2024
Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to tight ends this season. Freiermuth has been a legit red zone threat for the Steelers this year, hitting paydirt six times, including TDs in three of Pittsburgh's last four games.
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