Fantasy Baseball Sleepers Analysis - Christian Yelich, Carlos Rodon, CJ Abrams

The bulk of the 2024 MLB season is set to get underway, but fantasy baseball drafts will take place all the way up to the first pitch on Opening Day. There is still time to find and analyze which players are sleepers and which players have bust potential ahead of Thursday's action.

Christian Yelich, Carlos Rodon, and CJ Abrams have all had plenty of fantasy values in the past, and all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.

Should you draft Yelich, Rodon, or Abrams in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.

Christian Yelich Fantasy Baseball Value

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 61
Current ADP: ~pick 72

Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich put together one of his best seasons in some time in 2023. The 32-year-old slashed .278/.370/.447 with 19 home runs, 106 runs scored, 76 RBI, and 28 stolen bases in 632 plate appearances. His expected numbers finally caught up to his realized performance, as his high average exit velocity and hard-hit rate materialized into a solid batting average and slugging percentage. His HR count likely won't return to his 2018-19 marks as his average launch angle has not exceeded 3.6 degrees over the last three seasons.

So you threw a meatball to @ChristianYelich... pic.twitter.com/NXISvPEOd7

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) March 18, 2024

However, his power/speed profile could return 20 HR and at least 20 stolen bases, and he should be able to gather plenty of other counting stats hitting leadoff for the Brewers. Yelich is currently being drafted at about pick 72, making him the 18th OF off the board. Most of the hitters around him offer greater upside in certain categories but not as much of a floor in all categories. As such, Yelich seems like a safe pick at a reasonable ADP heading into 2024.

Carlos Rodon Fantasy Baseball Value

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 161
Current ADP: ~pick 153

Analysis: After pretty much hitting rock bottom in 2023, things can only get better in 2024 for New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon. Multiple injuries delayed his 2023 campaign until July, but the former 2x All-Star seemed to never shake off the rust. His final line was 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA, 5.79 FIP, 1.45 WHIP, 12.6% K-BB%, 76.4% Contact%, and 15.2% HR/FB%. Looking on the bright side, the Southpaw still had a 22.4% K%, 12.5% SwStr%, and his Stuff+ was 111, good for 18th-best in the league.

The BB and HR appear to be what did him in, but with a career BB% of 9.0%, there might not be much of an improvement in that area in 2024. The former first-round pick's career HR/FB% of 11.1% indicates there should be some regression, which should help lower his ERA to a more tolerable level. FGDC projections seem a tad rosy, going 11-8 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 20.9% K-BB%, and 194 K in 163 IP. A RotoBaller rank of 161 is right near his consensus ADP, but there are pivot options if the poor 2023 and lengthy injury history make you queasy, such as Nick Pivetta and Eduardo Rodriguez who are going a bit later.

CJ Abrams Fantasy Baseball Value

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 44
Current ADP: ~61

Analysis: There's little doubt Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams had himself a fine season in 2023. In his age-22 season, the former Padres farmhand hit .245 with 18 home runs and 47 stolen bases, the latter of which ranked fourth in all of baseball. His power came as a little bit of a surprise as he hit just two homers in 90 games as a rookie in 2022 and hadn't previously displayed much pop in the minors. At the same time, while he posted a quality 19.2% K%, Abrams walked in just 5.2% of his plate appearances, producing a subpar .300 on-base percentage in the process.

Additionally, he ranked in the 21st percentile or worse in xwOBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, just to name a few inferior Statcast categories. Still, he comes in as a draft value in our rankings compared to ADP.

CJ Abrams with a lead off double (2nd hit of the day) pic.twitter.com/HEfyxQ74nn

— Kev (@OnePursuitTakes) February 25, 2023

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