RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Start in 12+ Team Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: WR3/FLEX
ANALYSIS: Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk has seen a diminished role in his offense this year, and with the return of tight end Evan Engram, who earned 10 targets last week, Kirk is now likely the third option in the passing game. He was even out-targeted by fellow WR Gabe Davis, 8-6.
WRs who have created “multiple steps of separation” vs. man coverage at the highest rate in 2024:
(Minimum 40 routes vs man)
(Source: @FantasyPtsData)1. Zay Flowers
2. Christian Kirk
3. Rome Odunze
4. Brian Thomas Jr.
5. Rashod Bateman
6. Demario Douglas
7. Brandon Aiyuk
8.…— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 16, 2024
He's still an excellent receiver, but it's been Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. who have seen the field the most in 2WR sets (plays where only two receivers are on the field) with Kirk rotating in for 3WR sets. Between this and his diminished target volume, he's not the solid WR2 he was in 2022, or even for a stretch last year.
The pass-catchers to own for the Jags are now Thomas and Engram, and while Kirk could have games out-targeting one or both of them, it's an uphill battle. In addition, the last game for Jacksonville was a pass-heavy game script, and Jacksonville abandoned the run early after going down by multiple scores.
In closer games, Kirk may see the field even less as there will be more run and pass plays out of 2WR sets. He plays often in the slot, which helps, but in games where he's out-targeted by Thomas, Davis, and Engram, it will be difficult for him to score a lot of fantasy points.
The Jags face the Patriots in Week 7, who just got demolished by RB Joe Mixon and the Houston Texans. If Jacksonville can establish the run early, Kirk could see six or fewer targets for another consecutive game.
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