Chris Olave and Derek Carr 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

One of the first moves of this year’s free agency period was when Derek Carr decided to sign with the New Orleans Saints. This move was met with a lot of excitement from the fantasy community, believing that rookie standout Chris Olave received a pretty significant quarterback upgrade. If you’re wondering what this signing does for Olave and how to value Carr this year, you’ve come to the right place. We’ll be tackling both questions. Two birds, one stone. If you're looking for more analysis on how some of the biggest free agency moves have affected fantasy football values, check out this article on the impact of DJ Moore's trade to Chicago here.

Carr has been a fairly pedestrian quarterback his entire career. Recently, he’s put up some gaudy yardage markers largely off the back of a high number of pass attempts per game, but he’s rarely elevated his offense and he’s only thrown for more than 30 touchdowns once in nine seasons. Many expected Carr to have his true breakout season last year with offensive guru Josh McDaniels in as head coach and the trade for Davante Adams. But you can’t teach an old dog new tricks and after nine years in the NFL, Derek Carr was who Derek Carr had always been.

As far as Olave, he entered the league with the reputation of being one of the better pure route runners to come out of the college game in the past several years and he was expected to make an immediate impact. Despite Michael Thomas getting hurt and being thrust into the No. 1 role with a declining veteran quarterback, Olave delivered. The bar is even higher in 2023, but what should fantasy managers be realistically expecting this season? Let’s find out.

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Derek Carr’s Value and His Impact on Chris Olave

The addition of Derek Carr to the Saints’ roster has already had a significant impact on Olave’s fantasy value this year without Carr even putting on a Saints jersey yet. Despite finishing as the WR26 in full-PPR PPG average, he is currently being drafted as the WR14 on Underdog with an ADP of 24.0. He’s going ahead of guys like DK Metcalf, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb, among many, many others.

At this current price tag, we need to see a realistic outcome where Olave finishes as a top-10 receiver or else we’re being forced to draft him at his ceiling and whenever possible, this is something fantasy managers should try to avoid doing. Is that something we can realistically expect? Let’s look at the numbers.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Andy Dalton actually played pretty well last year. Don’t believe me? He completed 66.7% of his passes, which was the 10th-best in the NFL. His touchdown rate of 4.8% was the 12th-highest, his 7.6 yards per attempt was the eighth-best, and he had a 95.2 quarterback rating, which was ninth among qualifying passers. Now, many of his counting stats, such as total passing yards and touchdowns didn’t rank that high because the Saints didn’t pass the ball all that much. He averaged just 27 attempts per game, which ranked 29th among quarterbacks with at least eight games started.

What fantasy managers will need to decide is if the low passing volume was due to Dalton himself or a product of how their team is built. Specifically, because they have a top-10 defense and a strong offensive line with limited pass-catchers, so they decided to play ball control offense. Could that change with Carr? Maybe. Will it change drastically? Probably not, but let’s look at Derek Carr in his career vs what Olave played with last year, Andy Dalton in 2022.

There are several numbers here that stand out that we’re going to touch on, but let’s start with what I believe to be the most obvious and maybe the most important for both Carr’s 2023 value and Olave’s – pass attempts per game. You’ll see that Carr averaged 33.5 attempts per game in 2022 and 36.8 in 2021. Dalton was at 27.0 last year and Carr’s career average is 34.9. This is a significant difference and one that will have major fantasy ramifications.

In each of the last two seasons, the Raiders finished 26th in points allowed. Meanwhile, the Saints in 2022 finished ninth. That created a very different sense of urgency for these two offenses. Carr and the Raiders were either finding themselves trailing on the scoreboard or in a shoot-out while Dalton’s Saints didn’t have that pressure put onto them offensively. The difference between Carr’s career and Dalton in 2022 equals eight fewer pass attempts per game and that’s something we simply cannot ignore.

However, if we look elsewhere at this table, you’ll find that in 2022 Dalton actually outperformed Carr’s career averages in a lot of metrics. Dalton had a higher completion percentage than Carr had last year by almost six percentage points and was better than Carr’s career average by more than two percentage points.

Dalton’s touchdown rate in 2022 is also higher than Carr’s career average and was tied with Carr’s 2022 mark. The Red Rifle’s yards per attempt average of 7.6 was also better than Carr's last year (7.0) and better than his career average (7.1). Dalton’s quarterback rate was also higher than Carr’s career average and higher than each of his last two seasons. Actually, Dalton’s quarterback rating in 2022 was better than six out of Carr’s nine years in the NFL.

So how sure are we that Carr is going to play better than Dalton in 2022? I’m not entirely convinced; however, I do believe we’ll see more passing volume with Carr and the Saints’ passing offense, which will be a big added benefit to Olave this year. However, if you’re looking for significant improvement, you’re likely to be disappointed.

Last year:

Dalton
14 games
18-9 TD-INT
66.7% completion
7.6 Y/A
50.7 QBR
81.0 PFF Passing Grade

Carr
15 games
24-14 TD-INT
60.8% completion
7.0 Y/A
55.5 QBR
65.4 PFF Passing Grade

I think Chris Olave improves (because rookies do) – but I’m not convinced he got a QB “upgrade.”

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) April 16, 2023

The reality is, out of nine seasons in the NFL, Derek Carr has only thrown for 29 or more touchdowns on one occasion. He’s only thrice led an offense to a 16th or better finish in overall team points scored. In the other six years, his offenses have finished 31st, 17th, 23rd, 28th, 24th, and 18th in points scored. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence, does it?

Derek Carr and his Previous Receivers

Carr does have a history of supporting some pretty good fantasy players. Specifically, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, and Davante Adams. All of these players had seasons where they averaged 14 or more full-PPR PPG. However, there have been only two players who have ever finished with a PPG that would’ve landed them in the top 10 at the receiver position for full-PPR PPG. That was Adams in 2022 and Darren Waller in 2020.

Crabtree finished as a high-end WR2 twice with Carr (2015-2016). Cooper finished as a high-end WR2 once (2016) and Renfrow finished as a mid-WR2 once (2021). In the table below, you’ll find Carr’s top-two leading receivers in each of his nine seasons and where he ranked in terms of his pass attempts per game.

You’ll notice that for all of those players I just listed, only one of them – Waller – accomplished his feat while Carr was below league-average in pass attempts per game. That’s important to consider because the Saints team is not built to be a pass-heavy offense and while their pass attempts per game is likely to increase in 2023, we should still be expecting them to be below league average based on their offensive makeup and the strength of their defense.

A lot of Carr’s success in Las Vegas has been volume-based, which begs the question, how will we view Carr once some of his counting stats are depleted like they surely will be in New Orleans to some extent? It’s a fair question to ponder.

Carr shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a QB3 with QB2 streaming potential. He’s currently going off the board over at Underdog as the QB20 with an ADP of 132.0. In his nine years, Carr has PPG finishes of 28, 19, 17, 20, 25, 26, 15, 14, and 18. Remember, those PPG finishes are with Carr averaging 35 attempts per game. Fantasy managers shouldn’t want anything to do with Carr at his current price.

Is Chris Olave Worth the Cost of Admission?

There’s no way around it, Chris Olave’s rookie season was sensational. Despite being forced into the No. 1 role for the Saints when Michael Thomas got hurt, Olave performed spectacularly. There was no transition time required. He stepped into that No. 1 role from the get-go and didn’t look back.

The table above doesn’t look like that of a rookie, but it is nonetheless. It’s incredibly, incredibly rare to find a rookie wide receiver who finishes with a target share north of 25% and a yard per route run as high as 2.47. It’s virtually unheard of. Olave has the look of a budding superstar and is someone every wants to get their hands on, evidenced by his WR14 ranking. However, are we getting a little ahead of ourselves?

Most yards per route run by a rookie WR over the last 10 years (PFF)

1. 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
2. 2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
3. 2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
4. 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
...
5. 2022 Chris Olave (2.42)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 31, 2023

Let’s take a second and envision what a 2023 stat line for Olave might look like. As you can see from the table above, Olave was mostly used down the field with a 14.1 average depth of target. With Juwan Johnson and most notably Michael Thomas returning in 2023, fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a change to the role we saw him in last year. However, one area where Carr has been better than Dalton throughout his career has been his deep ball completion percentage and that could play major dividends for Olave in 2023.

Last year, Olave caught 60% of his targets, but with Carr’s better deep ball completion percentage, let’s say Olave’s catch rate increases to 62%. We’re not going to mess with Olave’s target share at all, keeping it at 26.5%. There’s an argument to be made it could increase in his second year although 26.5% is an elite rate as it is. There’s also an argument it could decrease ever so slightly with the return of Thomas and possibly another receiver in the draft. We’re going to give him a 14.5 YPR, a slight increase from last season. We’ll also give him a 4% touchdown rate, which is up from 3.3% as a rookie. Now, let’s input these numbers with the Saints’ throwing the ball 26, 28, 30, 32, and 34 times per game.

I expect the Saints to be around the 28-32 pass attempts per game range, which gives Olave a realistic range of outcomes of 13.00 to 14.94 full-PPR PPG. As far as 2022 player PPG averages go, you’re looking at a range of outcomes like this, Chris Olave's rookie self to DeVonta Smith, 2022. Smith finished as the WR13, so in my opinion, Olave’s cost of admission right now is pretty much at his realistic ceiling.

I think it’s incredibly optimistic to expect the Saints to go from 27 pass attempts per game to 34 based on their offensive makeup and the strength of their defense. Their division is also a pretty big dumpster fire, giving them six games against poor offenses, in which they very well might be content to lean on their defense.

Fantasy managers shouldn’t be balking at Olave’s current price, but they definitely shouldn’t be reaching to draft him because his current ADP is very close to his realistic best-case scenario. He’s a young, ascending player and those are the best players to bet on, but the market has already baked in a significant jump in production from his WR26 finish last year to his current WR14 price. Olave’s current price seems slightly high, one where there’s a bit more risk than reward, but that’s bound to happen when you’re talking about a player fresh off a rookie season like the one he had.

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