RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~68 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~77
ANALYSIS: Last year, only 14 receivers had at least 120 targets, 15 red-zone targets, and seven targets inside the 10-yard line. 11 of those 14 scored six or more touchdowns. The average number of touchdowns scored was 7.7. Godwin scored just two, the fewest of the 14 who qualified. Adam Thielen and Garrett Wilson were the only other receivers who met these criteria but failed to score at least six touchdowns. The Panthers threw 13 touchdowns. The Jets threw 11. The Buccaneers threw 28.
Godwin finished 19th in targets (123), 15th in receptions (83), 23rd in yards (1,024), 24th in red-zone targets (25), 18th in end-zone targets (10), but 68th in touchdowns (two). Godwin finished as the WR39 with a 9.7 half-PPR PPG average. However, his expected half-PPR PPG average was 10.4, ranked as the WR29. Godwin’s expected touchdowns were 6.2, giving him the worst touchdown differential among any receivers last season at -4.2.
Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin connected for a TD on just *1* of their 10 end zone targets last season — tied for the lowest TD rate of any qualified WR.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 8, 2024
From Weeks 14 through Tampa Bay’s playoff loss in the Divisional Round (seven games), Godwin had a higher target share than Evans and per-game averages in targets, receptions, and yards. Godwin’s slot rate last year was just 37.1%. In 2022, it was 73.0%; in 2021, it was 70.4%.
The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has repeatedly verified that Godwin will return to the slot role this season. That’s great news for his fantasy prospects.
Chris Godwin is officially back in the slot🔥
PPG finish vs. Slot snap % (via @rotounderworld):
2023: WR38 / 32.1%
2022: WR14 / 57.6%
2021: WR9 / 57.5%
2020: WR15 / 55.8%Screaming value at ADP WR34. pic.twitter.com/SMVA3tLCX5
— Victoria (@ffb_victoria) July 25, 2024
With better touchdown luck and a move back to the slot, Godwin is in a terrific position to provide fantasy managers with a lot of positive value at his current price.
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