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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Chicago Bears as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Throughout this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
The Chicago Bears' 2024 season is a big one. They retained head coach Matt Eberflus but let go of former offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. Chicago hired Shane Waldron, the offensive coordinator for the Seattle Seahawks, for the past three seasons. While fantasy managers are quick to give Dave Canales, the quarterback coach in Seattle, credit for Geno Smith's late-career resurgent, Waldron deserves an equal amount of praise. Courtesy of the Carolina Panthers, Chicago had the No. 1 overall pick, which they used on elite prospect Caleb Williams. The bar has officially been raised in Chicago, and fans hope they've finally solved their franchise-long quarterback issue. The offense, on paper, looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and if Williams is as good as many think he is, the Bears could compete for a playoff spot.
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Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Fantasy Football Team Previews
| NFC West | AFC West | NFC South | AFC South | NFC East | AFC East | NFC North | AFC North |
| Rams | Broncos | Saints | Colts | Cowboys | Jets | Lions | Browns |
| Seahawks | Chargers | Buccaneers | Titans | Giants | Patriots | Bears | Ravens |
| 49ers | Raiders | Panthers | Jaguars | Commanders | Bills | Vikings | Bengals |
| Cardinals | Chiefs | Falcons | Texans | Eagles | Dolphins | Packers | Steelers |
Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Caleb Williams: QB14, ADP 99
Williams is set up for immediate success more than any other former No. 1 overall quarterback in the NFL's history. You could argue that no rookie quarterback has ever walked into a more appealing situation than the one he’s facing with the Bears.
Going into the 2024 season, PFF has the Bears ranked with the 11th-best offensive line in football. Last season, the group struggled with health, and a quarterback who held onto the ball took far too many sacks. Chicago has two young, quality tackles, Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright. Teven Jenkins has been a bright spot since switching to guard in 2022 and has been one of the better players at that position. Ryan Bates rounds out the group at center, and Nate Davis at the other guard spot. It’s a good collection of talent, youth, and experience.
At receiver, Williams is spoiled. Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Rome Odunze make up one of the best trios, if not the best, in the NFL. Allen was first in targets per game, while Moore was 18th. In terms of receptions per game, Allen ranked first, and Moore was 15th. Allen was fourth in yards, and Moore was 11th. Granted, Allen was a Charger last year, but this still amounts to an abundance of riches. Allen finished 11th in yards per route run, and Moore was 16th.
We haven’t even mentioned Odunze, the No. 9 overall pick in last year’s draft. From 2022-2023, Odunze racked up 167 receptions, 2,785 yards, and 20 touchdowns. From 2014-2023, there had been 11 receivers selected in the top 10, slightly more than one per season. That’s not to say all of them hit, but to be drafted there, you must be viewed as an elite prospect. Odunze passed the test. You can legitimately say Chicago has three No. 1 receivers on their team. Had Allen stayed in Los Angeles, he’d be Justin Herbert’s No. 1. Had Odzune been drafted to the Giants instead of Malik Nabers, he’d be Daniel Jones’ No. 1 receiver.
It's not that Williams will or should need more to be successful, but there’s more. His tight end, Cole Kmet, finished 10th in targets (90), seventh in receptions (73), and ninth in yards (719). Allen only played 13 games, but these three players combined for 376 targets, 277 receptions, and 3,326 yards! Now, add Rome Odunze to the mix!
In addition, Chicago signed D’Andre Swift in free agency. He finished fifth in the NFL in rushing yards last season with 1,049. Since he came into the league in 2020, he’s been viewed as one of the NFL's most explosive and best pass-catching backs. Williams has an above-average offensive line, five excellent pass-catchers, and what should be a quality running game.
That would be enough for most first-round prospects to be successful, but Williams isn’t any first-round prospect. He’s been called the best prospect since Trevor Lawrence, who was the best prospect since Andrew Luck. Over the past two seasons at two different schools, Williams threw for 8,170 yards, 72 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
Some people have discussed how Williams didn’t appear against the best teams. Williams and the Trojans have lost eight games in the last two seasons. Their opponents scored 344 or 43 points per game in those eight games. In those eight losses, Williams completed 67.5% of his passes for 2,648 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also added two rushing scores. In their eight losses, Williams averaged 331 yards and 2.6 total touchdowns. I think it’s fair to say he did his part.
He’s already shown himself to be a prolific passer at the collegiate level, but he’s also been a capable runner. He’s not like Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson, but he could be compared to someone like Trevor Lawrence regarding their rushing potential. He could easily give fantasy managers 300-450 rushing yards and a 3-5 rushing scores each year. In the past two years at USC, he finished with 21 rushing scores. If he has 375 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns, that’s an extra 3.6 PPG from rushing alone.
Let’s talk about Shane Waldron, Chicago’s new offensive coordinator. He spent the last three seasons as the offensive coordinator with the Seattle Seahawks, and for the most part, fantasy managers should be optimistic. Below, you'll find a very surface look at what Seattle's offense, specifically their passing offense, has looked like over the past three years.
| Year | Points | Yards | Plays | Pass Attempts | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Pass YPA |
| 2021 | 16th | 20th | 32nd | 31st | 23rd | 10th | 8th |
| 2022 | 9th | 12th | 22nd | 15th | 12th | 6th | 8th |
| 2023 | 17th | 21st | 32nd | 17th | 14th | 20th | 11th |
The table above certainly has some good and some bad. Right off the bat, you can see just how few plays Seattle's offense has run the past three seasons. That has correlated with Seattle's ranking average or below-average in pass attempts. However, despite the lack of volume, they've performed well in passing yards and touchdowns. As previously indicated, however, this is just a very surface-level viewpoint. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic.
| Year | Second Per Play | Neutral Pass Rate | Red Zone Pass Rate | Up 8 Pass Rate | Down 8 Pass Rate |
| 2021 | 7th | 17th | 19th | 15th | 13th |
| 2022 | 14th | 9th | 11th | 20th | 11th |
| 2023 | 5th | 4th | 9th | 26th | 11th |
Since 2021, Seattle has operated one of the most up-tempo offenses in the NFL. They've twice been in the top 10 in the fewest seconds taken to snap the ball. While teams routinely hang around 30 seconds, Seattle has operated in the 25-26-second range. That up-tempo offense is good for fantasy football. Waldron's neutral pass rate has increased in the past two seasons. It should also be noted that in 2021, their quarterback was Russell Wilson, who suffered a mid-season injury, which likely impacted the team's standard operating procedure. However, in the past two years, in neutral situations, Waldron's offenses have passed the ball frequently, finishing in the top 10 in both seasons.
Based on where Seattle has ranked in passing touchdowns compared to their overall pass attempts, it's no surprise that Waldron is favored in the passing game inside the red zone. In 2022 and 2023, Seattle ranked 11th and ninth in neutral pass rate inside the red zone. These are all excellent figures. One of the reasons Seattle's offense hasn't run more plays is because their defense was unable to get off the field. In 2023, Seattle had the lowest time of possession per game in the NFL. It ranked 31st in 2022 and 32nd in 2021. Part of that is on the offense for being so up-tempo, and part is on the defense. However, Seattle has also ranked 16th, 10th, and 12th in points per drive from 2021-2023, so their opportunities have been efficient. In 2022, Seattle's defense finished 25th in points and 26th in yards allowed. In 2023, those figures were 25th and 30th, respectively.
Still, we see a lot of good signs for a fantasy football offense. They're up-tempo. They pass the ball above average in neutral situations and inside the red zone. Given Waldron's desire to lean on the passing game with Geno Smith in Seattle, imagine what he does with Caleb Williams and the trio of receivers he has. Not to mention Kmet at tight end and Swift at running back.
Play action rate on pass plays
(Shoutout Saints - last in both motion and play action in 2023) pic.twitter.com/0CoBm6CpqC
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 29, 2024
Last year, Seattle also used pre-snap motion and play-action at league-average rates. That's a good thing! These plays can make life easier for a quarterback. Play action can help a quarterback create plays downfield, while pre-snap motion helps create easy throwing windows. Williams' current price is a fair one, but one that has plenty of potential. While Tua Tagovailoa is going ahead of Williams, something I'm not crazy about, Trevor Lawrence is also going behind Williams, another close one that could go the other way. Overall, Williams at QB14 feels just right, but if he's as good as we think he is, watch out. Because with the weapons he has at his disposal, he could explode, even as a rookie.
Verdict: Fair Price on Caleb Williams (good value and potential)
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
D'Andre Swift: RB 22, ADP 67
Khalil Herbert: RB56, ADP 179
Roschon Johnson: RB62, ADP 209
Many people might be surprised to know this, but Swift recorded his worst half-PPR PPG average of his career last year in Philadelphia despite rushing for 1,000 yards for the first time. That’s kind of crazy to think about because, on the surface level, it doesn’t make much sense. Especially considering how much better the 2023 Eagles were compared to any of the Lions’ teams Swift was a part of. Oh, and the offensive line! Don’t even get me started on the differences between Detroit’s offensive lines from 2020-2022 to Philadelphia’s last year.
The difference came in touchdowns and targets. Swift’s reception per game average from each season from 2020-2022 was higher than his target per game average from last season. Think about that. He averaged more catches per game in each season with Detroit than he averaged targets per game last season with Philadelphia. Consider that in his rookie season, Swift scored 5.4 half-PPR points via receiving statistics only. In 2021, it was at 6.8 half-PPR PPG. In his final season with Detroit, in 2022, he averaged 5.8 half-PPR PPG via receiving stats. However, last year in Philadelphia, his receiving half-PPR PPG average dropped to 2.9.
He also scored a lot less! He scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie playing in just 13 games. In 13 games in his second season, Swift found the end zone seven times. He scored eight times in his final season with Detroit playing in 14 games. In 16 games with Philadelphia last year, he scored just six times. While we can acknowledge Philadelphia's offense and offensive line was better than Detroit's during Swift's time there and will be better than Chicago's in 2024, it's fairly clear that Swift's fantasy value is better when he's not in Philadelphia.
| Year | Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Yards | YPRR | YPR | YPT | YAC/Rec | Rec/Broken Tackle |
| 2020 | 12.8% (10th) | 57 (13th) | 46 (13th) | 357 (11th) | 1.69 (6th) | 7.8 (11th) | 6.3 (10th) | 7.6 (15th) | 23.0 (33rd) |
| 2021 | 18.4% (2nd) | 78 (4th) | 62 (4th) | 452 (5th) | 1.52 (16th) | 7.3 (23rd) | 5.8 (23rd) | 8.1 (15th) | 7.8 (16th) |
| 2022 | 15.1% (6th) | 70 (10th) | 48 (12th) | 389 (11th) | 1.78 (5th) | 8.1 (11th) | 5.6 (20th) | 9.2 (5th) | 16.0 (29th) |
| 2023 | 10.0% (25th) | 49 (22nd) | 39 (21st) | 214 (28th) | 1.13 (25th) | 5.5 (42nd) | 4.4 (39th) | 6.9 (35th) | 19.5 (40th) |
Assuming we see Swift's target share and receiving efficiency bounce back to where it had been from 2020-2022, Swift should receive a nice boost in his fantasy value. However, it should be noted that in 2021, Shane Waldron's first year in Seattle, the Seahawks running backs finished dead last in target totals with just 67. The next closest group of running backs belonged to the Rams at 76. In 2022, the Seattle running backs combined for 84 targets. This ranked 26th in the NFL. This past season, Seattle's running backs finished with 86 targets, 26th. That's slightly concerning and something to be cognizant of, although he certainly didn't have anyone of Swift's caliber in catching the ball out of the backfield.
However, he chose to funnel the team's targets to his trio of receivers, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which is very similar to what Chicago has this year. In reality, we should expect Swift to have more involvement in the passing game this year than in Philadelphia, but it's unlikely to rebound to his Detroit playing days. Chicago has just far too many other options in the passing game. The one bright spot is that Williams is not nearly the runner that Hurts is and will be, in theory, more willing to check down to his running back.
One of the things that makes Swift appealing is his penchant for big plays. In 2023, his breakaway run rate (percentage of carries gaining 15 or more yards) was 4.8%, ranked 17th among running backs. In 2022, it was 8.1%, ranking fifth. In his first two seasons in the league, his breakaway run rate was 5.3% (2020, 13th) and 5.3% (2021, 14th). Given the strength of their offensive line and the pass-catchers Chicago will put onto the field, Swift may run into many light boxes this year. It all sets up for a nice bounce-back season for Swift.
Waldron has a history of putting forth a strong running game. In 2021, Seattle ranked 11th in yards, ninth in touchdowns, and third in yards per attempt. However, they struggled the past two seasons, although much of that can be attributed to their poor offensive line. In 2022, Seattle ranked 18th in yards, 22nd in touchdowns, and seventh in yards per attempt. They finished 28th, 20th, and 16th this past season in these categories.
As a rookie, Swift finished as the RB18 with a 12.8 half-PPR PPG average. He followed that up by finishing as the RB13 in 2021 (13.8 half-PPR PPG) and the RB21 in 2022 (11.9 half-PPR PPG). Swift struggled with injuries in all three seasons with Detroit, and there were multiple games where he was limited or knocked out of games early, negatively affecting his PPG. He finished as the RB25 this past year with an 11.2 half-PPR PPG average.
Last year with Seattle, Waldron leaned on Kenneth Walker IIIin a big way, which should assure fantasy managers that Swift will be the guy in Chicago. Khalil Herbert has looked great in spurts, but the truth is that Herbert was drafted in 2021 when Ryan Pace was still the general manager, and Matt Nagy was still the head coach. In 2022, the organization hired Ryan Poles as general manager, who hired Matt Eberflus as head coach. That hire, they took Roschon Johnson in the fourth round of the NFL draft, and this offseason, they gave Swift the second-biggest running back contract of the summer. Regardless of how you or I feel about Herbert, it appears Chicago's brass has decided on him to some degree.
| Player | YPC | Breakaway Run % | MTF/Attempt | YAC/Attempt | YBC/Attempt | Target Share | TPRR | YPRR | YAC/Reception |
| Swift | 4.58 | 4.8% | 0.17 | 2.38 | 2.21 | 10.0% | 21% | 1.13 | 6.92 |
| Herbert | 4.63 | 5.3% | 0.26 | 2.33 | 2.30 | 9.5% | 22% | 0.99 | 6.80 |
| Johnson | 4.35 | 2.5% | 0.14 | 2.43 | 1.91 | 9.5% | 24% | 1.09 | 7.56 |
From the numbers above, it's not like Swift was significantly more efficient than Johnson or Herbert. He did have a much better environment for efficiency, but he also dealt with a much larger volume, which made things more difficult. It's somewhat unknown how this backfield will shake out. What seems to make the most sense is that Swift will be the primary rusher and pass-catcher. Herbert will be Swift's primary backup for the early-down work and short yardage. Johnson will be Swift's primary backup for the third-down role and pass-catching situations. If Swift were to miss time, fantasy managers would likely see a committee approach.
Fantasy managers should expect Swift to handle 55-60% of the snaps and touches in Chicago's backfield. Given his talent profile, pass-catching ability, and the overall strength of the Bears' offense, Swift certainly has the ability and environment to match his current positional ADP. Over the past two seasons, these are likely the best indicators of what a Waldron offense will look like in Chicago. In 2022, the Seattle running backs have combined for 350 carries, 84 targets, and 68 receptions. This past season, they combined 337 carries, 86 targets, and 68 receptions. Assuming the target volume increases to 100 with Swift's talent in that department, we're roughly looking at 340 carries, 100 targets, and 80 receptions. If Swift were to command 55%, he'd finish with 187 carries, 55 targets, and 44 receptions. A 60% workload would be 204 carries, 60 targets, and 48 receptions. That's roughly the kind of volume fantasy managers should be expecting.
Given his 5.3 yards per touch career average, this would project him for 1,224 and 1,336 scrimmage yards. Now, away from Jalen Hurts and the tush-push, Swift will have some serious red zone potential with the Bears. Last year, Swift finished with 229 carries. There were 23 running backs with at least 200 carries. Swift ranked 18th among this sample in the percentage of carries they were given of their team's carries inside the 5-yard line. He ranked 19th in percentage of carries handled inside the 10-yard line. With Hurts not lurking around the corner, his overall touchdowns should go back up.
Swift's price is fair, but so are Herbert's and Johnson's. There is the possibility that this turns into an ugly three-headed monster, with all three of them wrecking the returns of fantasy managers. That is something to be cautious about. However, concerning Swift, it's hard to be too concerned, given his historical fantasy production and the environment he is now walking into. All three players have fair prices, but Swift seems to have some real potential at his current cost.
Verdict: Fair Price on D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, and Roschon Johnson
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
D.J. Moore: WR21, ADP 39
Keenan Allen: WR30, ADP 68
Rome Odunze: WR42, ADP 95
As we've already discussed, many changes are going on in Chicago. There is a new offensive coordinator, quarterback, and two new highly-regarded receivers. Allen is fresh from one of the best seasons of his career, and Odunze was a top-10 pick in this year's NFL Draft. To say that Moore has competition is an understatement. However, Moore is also coming off of one of the best seasons of his career, which makes evaluating the target hierarchy in Chicago a bit difficult. To simplify this, here is what I expect this year. Odunze will be the starting X receiver. Moore will be the flanker or the Y receiver. Allen will be the slot receiver. In two receiver sets, I would expect Odunze to go to the bench, Moore to play the X, and Allen to be the Y. It shouldn't be a surprise if Allen leads the team in targets and catches while Moore leads the team in yards.
| Player | Target Share | TPRR | 1st Read % | TPG | RPG | RePG | YPRR | YPT | YPR | YAC/Rec | aDot | AYPG | Air Yard Share |
| Moore | 26.9% | 25% | 40.0% | 8.1 | 5.9 | 91.8 | 2.79 | 11.36 | 15.52 | 6.38 | 12.2 | 98.8 | 41.9% |
| Allen | 31.1% | 31% | 40.8% | 11.4 | 8.5 | 97.9 | 2.67 | 8.58 | 11.52 | 4.07 | 9.5 | 108.5 | 38.0% |
The table above is based on Moore's 12 games where Justin Fields started and finished the game at quarterback and the 12 games where Justin Herbert started and finished the game at quarterback. As you can see from the table, Allen had the advantage on Moore regarding target share, target rate, targets per game, receptions per game, and just barely squeaked out a win in yards per game. Moore was more efficient with his routes and touches, besting Allen in yards per route run, yards per target, and yards per reception. This shouldn't be surprising when you consider their average depth of target. Moore was used more downfield, but he was also much better after the catch. Allen will be the guy that moves the sticks, but Moore is likely the big-play threat. Odunze is the wild card.
Given his draft pedigree and prospect profile, no one should be surprised to see him excel right out of the gate. He's that good. He had 250 targets, 167 receptions, 2,784 yards, and 20 touchdowns in the past two years at Washington. 123 receivers had 70 targets last year for college football. Here's where Odunze ranked among them in a few compelling categories:
- Third in targets (140)
- Seventh in receptions (92)
- First in yards (1,639)
- 14th in yards per reception (17.9)
- Sixth in touchdowns (13)
- Eighth in PFF Receiving Grade (89.5)
- 17th in yards per route run (2.93)
- First in first-down receptions (78)
It isn't just the stat sheet where Odunze shines, he also makes a strong case for him on film too. Reception Perception did a film study on his route-running and the reviews are glowing. Here's a sample from Odunze's Reception Perception profile written by Matt Harmon,
"Odunze operated as a pure perimeter receiver for Washington last season and primarily lined up as the X. He took 84% of his sampled snaps outside and 67.4% on the line of scrimmage. He ran out like a classic No. 1 wideout at the collegiate level. All of Rome Odunze’s success rate vs. coverage scores are impressive but his 80% success rate vs. press is the most impressive mark. He saw a good amount of press in a legitimate Power 5 conference. That’s as bonafide a result as you’re going to find. With a 76.2% success rate vs. man coverage, Odunze is in striking distance of Chris Olave and DeVonta Smith in this metric. His 83.5% success rate vs. zone coverage puts him right in the middle of those two. This is the type of separator we’re talking about. Odunze is a great route runner who shows a mastery level of deception with plenty of quickness and a litany of tricks in the toolbag to work himself open. As you can see from his route success rate chart, there is no area of the field where Odunze is not dominant. He posted an above-average success rate on every route on the tree. He gets open underneath with precision and as a former star high-school sprinter, has all the speed to demolish teams on vertical routes. I don’t use the word “elite” lightly in prospect profiles but everything about Odunze’s film and Reception Perception profile screams elite route runner. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ja'Marr Chase and Rome Odunze are the top three prospects I have charted for Reception Perception between the 2021 and 2024 classes. By the time I’m ready to settle the rankings, he very well may end up the top prospect on the board. "
So, that's the kind of prospect and player the Bears drafted at No. 9 overall. By any measurement, Odunze is not just some rookie; he's a star in the making. As good as Allen and Moore are, and make no mistake, they are very good. Odzune's talent could allow him to be far more involved than most rookies, given the target competition he's facing in year one. That's something to keep in mind with Moore and Allen.
Allen will be entering his age-32 season, which is why fantasy managers prefer Moore. However, Allen has been ridiculously good for a long time. From 2017-2023, Allen has averaged 141 targets, 98 receptions, 1,130 yards, and six touchdowns per season. His per-game averages during this seven-year stint over 17 games equate to a seasonal projection of 166 targets, 115 receptions, 1,332 yards, and seven touchdowns. As you can imagine, it's all translated directly to elite fantasy production,
- 2017: WR4 (13.6 half-PPR PPG)
- 2018: WR18 (13.5 PPG)
- 2019: WR15 (12.7 PPG)
- 2020: WR11 (13.9 PPG)
- 2021: WR11 (13.1 PPG)
- 2022: WR19 (11.6 PPG)
- 2023: WR3 (17.3 PPG)
Moore is no slouch, either. While his production is not nearly as impressive as Allen's, he also hasn't Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert throwing him the ball. In 2019, he caught passes from Kyle Allen, Will Grier, and 30-year-old Cam Newton and finished with 1,175 yards. The next season, it was Teddy Bridgewater and P.J. Walker. Moore still had 1,193 yards. In 2021, Sam Darnold, 32-year-old Cam Newton, and P.J. Walker all got starts in Carolina. Moore had 1,157 yards. In 2023, he had to catch passes from Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent, but that didn't stop him from finishing with 1,364 yards.
Combining every receiver's first six years of their career from 1990-2023, Moore ranks 23rd in targets, 22nd in yards, and 15th in yards. The fantasy production hasn't always followed because, until 2022, his fifth season in the league, Moore hadn't scored more than four touchdowns in a season. The quarterback play didn't do him any favors. Moore is a certified stud and always has been, but he's never been paired with a quarterback who lifted him as much as he lifted them. It's been a pretty one-sided relationship, to say the least. That was true even last year with Justin Fields.
Given Moore's new extension, age, and breakout season in Chicago, he should be expected to be the most productive receiver for the Bears this season in terms of yards and touchdowns. He's more explosive than Allen in almost every way at their respective career stages. If Williams is as good as draft analysts and experts believe him to be, this offense will be very good. Moore's fantasy price is fair. While he finished far higher than his current ranking last year, he also has a lot more target competition. It should be noted that if Allen were to miss time like he did last year, or maybe Odunze isn't quite as ready as we all expect him to be, Moore could out-perform his ranking.
Each receiver has a lot of contingency value if they miss time. Allen's price is also fair, given his age, injury last year, changing teams, target competition, and utilization. Due to his low depth of target, Allen needs volume. He can still rack up catches, but his upside could be limited if Moore and Odunze are the primary downfield threats, which they're likely to be.
Odunze's price is also fair. If Moore or Allen were to miss time, Odunze would become a weekly top-25 receiver immediately, and given his talent, the upside could be even higher, which is what makes him appealing. If all three of them are healthy, he's likely to be held back due to playing time (likely won't be on the field in two receiver sets, at least not early) and the elite target competition around him. He'll likely be a boom-or-bust player with Moore and Allen on the field. However, ignoring a top-10 pick at the round 8/9 turn is hard.
Verdict: Fair Price on DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Cole Kmet: TE15, ADP 126
Gerald Everett
Kmet and Dalton Schultz are two of the easiest tight end sells this offseason. What kind of target volume will Kmet get with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, two receivers who finished first and 21st in targets per game? If it was only Moore and Allen, you could still argue Kmet would be a sell, but then they went and added Odunze at No. 9 overall, who is regarded as an elite prospect and one of the better receiver prospects over the past few seasons. To make matters worse, Chicago signed Gerald Everett, who quietly followed Waldron around most of his career. When Everett was drafted, Waldron was the tight end coach in 2017 with the Rams. When Waldron became the offensive coordinator for the Seahawks in 2021, guess who Seattle signed in free agency? Everett.
| 2023 | |||
| Player | Snap Share | Routes | Route % |
| Noah Fant | 54.6% | 324 | 56.3% |
| Colby Parkinson | 47.3% | 231 | 40.2% |
| Will Dissly | 36.1% | 168 | 31.2% |
| 2022 | |||
| Player | Snap Share | Routes | Route % |
| Noah Fant | 60.4% | 330 | 57.6% |
| Will Dissly | 52.0% | 231 | 45.0% |
| Colby Parkinson | 40.5% | 196 | 34.2% |
| 2021 | |||
| Player | Snap Share | Routes | Route % |
| Gerald Everett | 65.6% | 321 | 73.1% |
| Will Dissly | 51.6% | 173 | 39.1% |
| Colby Parkinson | 18.9% | 49 | 12.0% |
The table above shows how Waldron has divvied up the playing time and routes in Seattle over the past three years. It's ugly, folks. Really ugly. Given his clear positive feelings toward Everett as a player, fantasy managers can feel pretty confident he will play far more snaps than Kmet fantasy managers would like to see. Kmet is still guaranteed to be the TE1 for Chicago. There's no question about that. However, if Everett eats into his route share, even just a bit, especially with the increased target competition, it will spell bad news for Kmet and his fantasy value.
Kmet finished with 90 targets (ninth-most), 73 receptions (eighth-most), 719 yards (ninth-most), and six touchdowns (tied for second-most). However, it’s important to put some of those numbers in context. The Bears finished the 2023 season 27th in passing attempts, 27th in passing yards, and 23rd in passing touchdowns. They were 24th in completion percentage, eighth-highest interception rate, 24th in yards per pass attempt, and 25th in quarterback rating.
Their offense finished 18th in total points and 20th in total yards. They were a below-average offense and a bad passing offense. That context is important when looking at Kmet’s season. Despite this, here’s where Kmet ranked in some key metrics among tight ends with 40 or more targets:
- Third-Lowest Drop Rate (1.1%)
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Target Average (8.0)
- 11th-Highest Target Share (19.3%)
- 12th-Highest Target Per Route Run Rate (21.6%)
- Eighth-Highest Yard Per Route Run Average (1.70)
- 10th-Highest Yards Per Team Pass Attempt Average (1.40)
- First in Contested Catch Rate (77.8%)
Kmet finished the 2023 season as the TE8 with an 8.7 half-PPR PPG average. He provided fantasy managers with 10 top-12 weekly performances, including three top-five finishes. He scored over 20 half-PPR points on two occasions. He scored 1.9 half-PPR points in Week 6, the week Fields was injured and left in the first half. He put up a goose egg with Bagent under center the following week. While he did well in Bagent's other three starts, these two weeks greatly hindered his PPG average.
Kmet is a talented tight end, and there's the possibility he will fend off Everett completely and retain his role from last season. However, even if that remains true, it's hard to see Kmet being a fantasy asset, given the team's upgrades at receiver. Pat Freiermuth is next to Kmet at TE16 with an ADP of 128. Fantasy managers are much better off drafting him, who will likely be Pittsburgh's No. 2 target-earner. Otherwise, drafting Luke Musgrave three rounds later seems like a better bet. Musgrave is in a similar target pinch as Kmet, but at least he's cheaper. For these reasons, Kmet is a sell.
Everett is completely irrelevant here. He's only mentioned because of his past relationship with Waldron and what that could mean for Kmet. Even if Kmet were to get hurt, Everett wouldn't be anything more than a boom-or-bust, touchdown-dependent TE3. He's not someone who will have any value himself, but he could certainly negatively impact Kmet's.
Verdict: Sell Cole Kmet and Ignore Gerald Everett
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