Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 7

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The bets have been red hot this season with another great week last week going 7-1.  Either I jinxed myself or some of you that reached out via DM jinxed me when the last bet of the day was easily projected to win for a perfect 8-0, but the Bucs and Packers literally stopped scoring in the 2nd half to ruin it.

Be sure to give We are Marshall a watch leading up to the NFL slate.  The movie features Matthew McConaughey as the Head Coach but also has a throwback GOAT in January Jones (shoutout to Mad Men).  On a more serious note, the movie closely follows the Marshall University football program in the aftermath of a catastrophic plane crash in 1970.  While the movie could have been better and somewhat underdelivered, it definitely has it's moments that make it well worth the watch.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing.  Also, be sure to check out the betting tools.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information than usual since it is Week 1.  Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units.  If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes.  For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor.  For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following:  22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following:  22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following:  22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

So, let's discuss the trend.  Everyone finished in the green.  However, Mr. Danny Boi being up 22.5U means something much more financially positive than Mr. Uncle Leo. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 7 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 6 picks.  Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial.  Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+30u) 40-19 Total [2-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record:  24-15
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record:  14-4
• 4-5U Risk Record:  2-0

Be sure to check back for updates or added plays Sunday morning.  

• Browns -3 vs Bengals - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
• Cowboys/Washington Over 44 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
• Lions +3 vs Falcons - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
• Panthers +7.5 vs Saints - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
• Panthers/Saints Under 50 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
• Chargers -7 vs Jaguars - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
• Steelers +1.5 vs Titans - Risk 1.65U to win 1.5U
• Seahawks -3 vs Cardinals - Risk 1.8U to win 1.5U
• Chargers/Chiefs 6.5 PT Teaser (Chargers -0.5, Chiefs -1) - Risk 1..8U to win 1.5U
• Chiefs/Seahawks 7 PT Teaser (Chiefs -0.5, Seahawks +4) - Risk 1.3U to win 1U
• Packers -2.5 vs Texans - Risk 1.25U to win 1U
• Bucs ML vs Raiders - Risk 3U to win 1.5U
• Chef's Yolo Parlay (Or play?) - 7PT Teaser - Panthers/Bills/Steelers/Bucs/Chiefs/Chargers/Seahawks - Risk 0.5U to win 4U

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