Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 4

All other Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Drew's article is available for free to all readers as a special this week. 

"Hard work pays off.....sometimes!"  A quote that I love to bring up when people say that hard work pays off.  Well, right now, hard work is paying off as I am currently on the hottest NFL run with a 22-4 record over Weeks 2 and 3 of the season. Even I did not envision this sort of run when RotoBaller reached out to me wanting to increase betting content.

Varsity Blues brings us into Week 4, and I wanted to go with the whipped cream scene for the cover photo, but I figured that would no sit well with the powers that be at RB.  If you have not seen it, basically the cheerleader girlfriend tries to jump ship and get with the backup QB and main character, Mox (James Van Der Beek), after star QB, Lance Harbor (Paul Walker) gets injured.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information than usual since it is Week 1.  Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units.  If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes.  For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor.  For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following:  22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following:  22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following:  22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

So, let's discuss the trend.  Everyone finished in the green.  However, Mr. Danny Boi being up 22.5U means something much more financially positive than Mr. Uncle Leo. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 4 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 4 picks.  Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial.  Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+19.8u) 24-11 Total [1-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record:  14-9
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record:  9-2
• 4-5U Risk Record:  1-0

Releasing this post earlier this week because of a Thursday night official play.

• Lions +3 vs Saints - Risk 1.1U to win 1 - I played this early in this week at 4.5 for more than 1U but since it wasn't posted, it will be scored from +3.
• Cardinals -3 vs Panthers - Risk 1.1U to win 1 - I predicted the Cardinals let down a spot last week, but hoping to see them get back on track against a Carolina team with Bridgewater starting to look more comfortable.
• Bengals ML vs Jaguars - Risk 2U to win 1.5U
• Seahawks/Dolphins Over 54 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
• Bears +3 vs Colts - Risk 1.8U to win 1.5U - This is another line I played early in the week at 3.5 but will score it from 3.
• Bills -2.5 vs Raiders - Risk 1.9U to win 1.5U (Don't mind ML here if you want to pay the juice)
• Bills/Raiders Under 53 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
• Bucs/Seahawks ML Parlay - Risk 1.8U to win 1.5U
• Bucs/Lions Teaser  (Bucs Pick, Lions +10) - Risk 1.3U to win 1U
• Seahawks/Bills ML Parlay - Risk 1u to win 1.3U
• Texans ML vs Vikings - Risk 2.55U to win 1.5U

Chef's Yolo Parlay:  Lions +3, Bears +3, Bucs ML, Seahawks ML, Bills ML - Risk 0.5U to win 4.5U

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