Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 1 and the 2020 Season (Premium Content)

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It's an absolute pleasure to be back for NFL week 1 with the opportunity to provide you degenerates with winning bets (hopefully).

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing - very important.  We are sticking with the Replacements cover photo for Week 1 just like my DFS Rankings piece.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

This week I will layout a little more information than usual since it is week 1.  Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units.  If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes.  For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor.  For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following:  22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following:  22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following:  22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

So, let's discuss the trend.  Everyone finished in the green.  However, Mr. Danny Boi being up 22.5U means something much more financially positive than Mr. Uncle Leo. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

So, where do we go from here?

Let's remember that we are in unchartered waters this season with the 2020 season as a whole.  It doesn't change everything but it changes enough to call it out.  No preseason and a 'Rona year means we should at least acknowledge proceeding with caution.  I have a good idea of what I will be betting on Sunday but check back in Saturday Night / Sunday morning to get the betting card.  I usually wait until Saturday to post it when we have the most news and betting line movement.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 1 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 1 picks.  Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial.  Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets - Pending

Alright, what calls for a good time to do something completely different than my normal approach?  Posting on RB + 'Rona!  Jokes aside, in a normal year, some of these plays would be heavier than 1-2U, but I am going to hold back with the unknowns.  This is higher in the volume of total plays but lower in average units per bet than normal:

• Miami +7.5 vs NE - Risk 2.2U to win 2U
  • Chef's True Line:  Miami +3.5  The Quant Edge True Line:  Miami +2.6
• Miami ML vs NE - Risk 0.5U to win 1.3U
• Buffalo -6 vs NYJ - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
  • Chef's True Line:  Buffalo -7  The Quant Edge True Line:  Buffalo -5.1
• Buffalo vs NYJ Under 39.5 - Risk 1.1U to win 1U
• Cincinnati +3 vs LA Chargers  - Risk 1.15U to win 1U
  • Chef's True Line:  Cincinnati +2  The Quant Edge True Line:  Cincinnati Pick'Em
• Arizona +7 vs SF - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
  • Chef's True Line:  Arizona +6  The Quant Edge True Line:  Arizona +5.6
• TB +4 vs NO - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
  • Chef's True Line:  TB +2.5  The Quant Edge True Line:  TB +1.1
• DAL ML vs LA Rams - Risk 1.35 to win 1U
• IND/MIA 7 PT Teaser (IND -1.5, MIA +14.5) - Risk 1.35U to win 1U
• IND/BUF 6.5 PT Teaser (IND -2, BUF PK) - Risk 1.2U to win 1U
• IND/AZ 7 PT Teaser (IND -1.5, AZ+14) - Risk 1.35U to win 1U

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