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Rob's 2023 fantasy football running back draft sleepers - undervalued workhorse RBs with an ADP after the sixth round who should log more than 250 touches.
One of the most common sayings when it comes to fantasy football is "volume is king." This is especially true for running backs, but it really applies to every single position. The more opportunities a running back has to touch the ball, the more yards they'll gain, and the higher chance they'll have of finding the end zone. Historically, if a running back finishes with 250 or more touches, they'll have a very good chance of finishing in the top 24.
Last season, among the top 24 running backs in terms of full-PPR points per game (PPG), only three of them failed to reach an average of 14.7 touches per game, which is equivalent to 250 over 17 games. Additionally, only one running back who surpassed the 14.7-touch mark per game failed to finish within the top 24 in full-PPR PPG, and that was Latavius Murray. In 2021, only three running backs finished inside the top 24 in full-PPR PPG without maintaining an average of 14.7 touches per game, and not a single running back managed to average 14.7 touches without making the top 24. Therefore, if you are looking for a running back who has a good chance of finishing within the top 24, it is important to ask yourself, "Will this player receive 14.7 touches per game?" If the answer is no, there's a good chance they won't crack the top 24.
With that in mind, our focus will be on identifying cheap running backs who have the potential to surpass 250 touches and likely maintain an average of 14.7 touches per game, assuming they remain injury-free. For the record, we can define "cheap" as a player that should be available in the seventh round or later. These players have a strong historical track record of finishing inside the top 24. If you've read any of my previous articles, you know that I believe in the power of history repeating itself. So let's get started and identify these cheap workhorse running backs. Don't forget to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.
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Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
RB30, ADP of 90.2
Fantasy managers aren’t currently drafting Isiah Pacheco as a top-24 running back. This is most likely due to his shoulder injury, but he falls just within our range and can be drafted in the middle of the eighth round. This makes him an appealing target for fantasy managers who plan to prioritize other positions early in the draft, which has become a more favorable strategy. Pacheco is expected to reprise his role as Kansas City's early-down plodder in 2023.
Last season, Week 10 was the first time that Pacheco played more than 31% of the team's snaps. From Week 10 through the Super Bowl, he averaged a 45.1% snap share and played in at least 35% of the snaps in every game. During this period, Pacheco averaged 11.0 half-PPR points per game, which would have placed him as the RB26 over a full season.
However, despite ample opportunities in the red zone, he only scored four touchdowns in 11 games. Before we delve into the positive aspects of his fantasy appeal, here are Pacheco's per-game averages from Week 10 through the Super Bowl, along with what those averages would translate to over a 17-game season.
| Time Period | CPG | RuPG | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TPG | SYPG |
| Weeks 10–22 | 13.5 | 68.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 16.5 | 15 | 85 |
| 17-Game Pace Stats | 230 | 1,165 | 27 | 25 | 280 | 255 | 1,445 |
As shown in the table, Pacheco is hitting our 14.7 touches per game threshold, averaging 15.0 touches during that stretch. It's also important to remember that he achieved this as a seventh-round rookie. It's fair to think he could improve on the numbers he showcased last season. Although his half-PPR PPG may be slightly lower compared to his current RB ranking, fantasy managers should expect Pacheco to find the end zone more in 2023 compared to his 11-game stretch last season.
During that stretch, he averaged 2.45 red zone carries, 1.54 carries inside the 10-yard line, and 0.81 carries inside the five-yard line. Extrapolating these averages over 17 games, he would have finished with 42 red zone carries, 26 carries inside the 10-yard line, and 14 carries inside the five-yard line. These numbers would have ranked fifth, tied for third, and tied for fifth among all running backs, respectively.
In comparison, there were nine running backs who had similar red zone utilization as Pacheco. Those backs had 35 red zone carries, 20 carries inside the 10-yard line, and 11 carries inside the five-yard line last season. They all scored at least seven rushing touchdowns while the highest had 17. The average was 10.2 and the median was 12, which is what we should expect from Pacheco in 2023. Based on the scoring potential of those comparable running backs, we would have expected Pacheco to score 6-8 touchdowns during his 11-week stretch as opposed to four.
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
RB22, ADP of 71.3
Cam Akers, much like Pacheco, had two very different seasons. In the first 11 weeks, Akers had a limited snap share of just 25.2%, which included two inactive games due to his trade request. If we eliminate his two DNPs, his snap share over the first 11 weeks was 31.4%.
However, when a trade didn't materialize, the Rams and Akers were forced to make amends. Following the surprise release of Darrell Henderson Jr., head coach Sean McVay entrusted Akers with the starting role in Week 12. This decision came amidst a challenging season for the Rams that was marked by injuries to key players such as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. What happened next was truly unexpected.
Despite the absence of their best offensive player, their starting quarterback, and running behind one of the worst offensive lines in all of football, Cam Akers dominated. His impressive performance during this period is highlighted in the table below. Notably, the Rams only made one addition to their running back room during the offseason, selecting sixth-round rookie Zach Evans. As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words, and this move by the Rams was a ringing endorsement for Akers and his 2023 prospects.
| Time Period | RAPG | RYPG | TPG | RPG | ReYPG | TPG | SYPG |
| Weeks 12–18 | 16.0 | 78.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 14.1 | 17.6 | 92.5 |
| 17-Game Pace | 272 | 1,333 | 29 | 27 | 240 | 299 | 1,573 |
Akers' performance during that stretch goes beyond his impressive counting stats as he proved to be one of the most effective rushers in the NFL. His average of 4.9 yards per carry would have ranked 12th for the 2023 season. Additionally, his average of 2.5 yards after contact per rush would have placed him second in the league.
He also showcased elusiveness, with a broken tackle rate of 9.8%, which would have ranked as the sixth-highest. Furthermore, he exceeded expectations by averaging 0.47 rushing yards over expected, placing him 14th in the league. He wasn't solely reliant on volume during those final seven games of the season; he stood out as one of the top running backs in the league overall.
With the return of Stafford and Kupp, Akers' job should become even easier, and his scoring potential is likely to increase. Head coach Sean McVay has a proven track record of utilizing one primary running back, and it appears that Akers will assume that role in 2023. This was evident in his usage late last season, where he averaged a 67.5% snap share per game and handled 60.5% of the team's rushing attempts. Both of these numbers would have placed him inside the top 10 among running backs if maintained over the course of a full season.
Those numbers actually improved once the team got inside the red zone. Akers' snap share jumped to 78% in the red zone, and he handled nearly 80% of the team's carries. With his strong finish last season, Akers comfortably clears our 250-touch threshold. Considering the Rams' offensive potential, if they can regain their form, Akers is likely to have a stranglehold on this backfield. He could be one of the bigger surprises this fantasy season.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RB29, ADP of 85.3
Continuing the trend set by Pacheco and Akers, Rachaad White essentially played two completely different seasons last year as well. After being drafted by the Buccaneers in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, White initially played a limited role behind Leonard Fournette during the first nine weeks of the season. However, a significant shift occurred in Week 10 when the Bucs deployed their two-back scheme. It resulted in a much larger role for the rookie out of Arizona State.
| Time Period | Snap % | CPG | RuPG | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TPG | SYPG |
| Weeks 1–9 | 22.2% | 5.0 | 14.6 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 15.6 | 7.5 | 30.2 |
| Weeks 10–17 | 51.3% | 12.4 | 49.9 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 22.1 | 16.7 | 72 |
| 17-Game Pace | 211 | 848 | 80 | 73 | 376 | 284 | 1,224 |
Similar to Akers and Pacheco, Tampa Bay's approach to their running back position during the offseason was a surprise. They released Fournette and made only one addition, signing Miami cast-off Chase Edmonds. Surprisingly, they did not draft a running back and instead added undrafted free agent Sean Tucker, who was extremely productive at Syracuse but had medical concerns that likely impacted his draft stock.
With the current state of the team's depth chart, it's hard to envision a scenario where White does not cross our 250-touch threshold. The table above demonstrates that he already had a significant workload from Weeks 10-17, even with Fournette on the team.
Although the chart may suggest that it's unlikely for White to have 73 receptions in 2023 due to the potential decrease in passing volume with the departure of Tom Brady, it's worth remembering that the team said goodbye to Fournette and his 83 targets and 73 receptions. While it's expected that the overall passing volume will decrease, we can also subtract Fournette's share from the equation.
Additionally, it's worth noting that Tampa Bay operated with an exceptionally high-volume passing attack last season, allowing for a substantial decrease while still maintaining a top-12 ranking in terms of passing volume. Last season, the Bucs averaged 45.4 pass attempts last season. Even if we subtract 10 pass attempts per game, representing a 22% decline, they would still finish in the top 12 in terms of passing volume with a total of 170 pass attempts removed. If we increase the decline to 26%, they would still be in the top half of the league with roughly 571 total pass attempts.
Considering that the league average for running back targets is around 18%, the Tampa Bay backs would still be looking at 103 targets, even with a 26% decrease in overall passing volume. Given the current depth chart, it wouldn't be surprising to see White handle 80% of that workload.
With White's receiving profile and the barren depth chart behind him, his current ADP looks like a gift to patient fantasy managers. You can go ahead and thank Baker Mayfield for that one, but don't let him keep you from drafting White. Unlike Akers, who could be game-scripted out of production when the Rams are behind, White's ability to contribute as a pass-catcher will ensure he remains involved in the offense.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
RB26, ADP of 80.4
I get it, ladies and gentlemen, I really do. I understand that James Conner isn't a sexy or exciting name, and his ADP has been affected by factors such as Kyler Murray's potential absence in the first month of the season. However, Conner is virtually guaranteed to cross our 250-touch threshold and, like White, he won't be limited by the game script. This is incredibly important because the Cardinals are going to be very bad. In fact, this situation could work in Conner's favor, as he could be one of the most heavily targeted running backs this upcoming season.
Conner's 2022 season was impacted by injuries, causing him to miss four games and play fewer than 35% of the snaps in two additional contests. However, if we look at the 11 games where he played in at least 50% of the snaps, a clear picture emerges. It's evident that Conner is another hidden workhorse running back that fantasy managers shouldn't be ignoring this season.
| Time Period | Snap % | CPG | RuPG | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TPG | SYPG |
| 2022 Stats | 79.2% | 15.2 | 63.8 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 24.2 | 19.1 | 88 |
| 17-Game Pace | 258 | 1,085 | 82 | 66 | 411 | 324 | 1,496 |
Conner was one of the most heavily used running backs in the passing game last season and that shouldn't change this year. While there may be some concerns about the quarterback change in the early part of the year, there's a possibility that it could benefit Conner in terms of PPR scoring.
Comparing Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy's intended air yards per attempt from last season, Murray averaged 6.9 while McCoy averaged 6.5. Additionally, Murray had more deep targets per start than McCoy. This shouldn't be surprising as backup quarterbacks tend to be less inclined to push the ball deep down the field. As a result, McCoy may rely more on Conner's receiving abilities out of the backfield.
Even when Murray returns to the lineup, his torn ACL could potentially limit his rushing ability, at least in the early part of the season. This situation could also result in more running back targets for Conner. Despite his age, Arizona, similar to Tampa Bay and Los Angeles, opted not to make significant additions to their running back room. The depth chart behind Conner consists of Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, and Ty'Son Williams. With such a thin running back room, it is highly likely that Conner will be required to handle a ton of snaps and touches in Arizona's offense.
While it's true that Arizona's offense may not provide Conner with frequent touchdown opportunities, he is expected to receive a large number of touches on a weekly basis. A good portion of those touches could come in the way of receptions, which boosts his fantasy value in PPR formats. All of this makes him an ideal target in PPR-scoring leagues.
David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
RB25, ADP of 78.9
David Montgomery's ADP appears intriguing when considering Jamaal Williams' productive 2022 season. Williams finished with 274 total touches, amassing 1,139 total yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. That performance resulted in an RB18 half-PPR PPG average finish.
Looking ahead to the 2023 season, the Lions' backfield is expected to operate similarly to the split between Williams and D'Andre Swift in 2022. With the addition of Jahmyr Gibbs, a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, it's expected that he will assume Swift's role. Collectively, the Lions' running backs combined for 426 carries, 115 targets, and 81 receptions.
Considering Montgomery's size at 222 pounds, fantasy managers can expect him to be the team's primary ball carrier. Gibbs, weighing in at 199 pounds, is likely to serve as the change of pace and pass-catching back. Additionally, Montgomery should operate as the team's primary short-distance and goal-line back. While Gibbs may be the more exciting option, Montgomery is much cheaper.
Fantasy managers can anticipate Montgomery handling around 50% of the team's rushing attempts, with Gibbs seeing around 40%, while the remaining 10% will be shared among the backups. In terms of passing work, it's likely that Gibbs will handle the majority, following a similar pattern to Swift's usage.
However, it's important to note that Montgomery has been a much better pass-catcher throughout his career compared to Williams. Even if Gibbs handles 70% of the passing workload and Montgomery handles 20%, this distribution still puts Montgomery very close to that 250-touch threshold.
Based on the distribution mentioned above and considering last year's touch totals, Montgomery would be projected to finish with roughly 225-235 touches for the season. While he may fall slightly short of the 250-touch threshold, his potential as the Lions' primary goal-line back gives him massive scoring potential.
Williams' red zone utilization from the previous year, along with his high number of carries inside the 10-yard line and five-yard line, indicates the team's preference to use a power back in those situations. Considering Montgomery's size advantage over Gibbs, it's easy to envision him being the team's primary rusher near the goal line. That elite scoring potential more than makes up for the slight shortfall in touches. Additionally, in the event of an injury to Gibbs, Montgomery would immediately become a top-10 running back.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
RB23, ADP of 75.2
I understand if there may be some hesitation regarding Javonte Williams due to his injury from last season. Evaluating the risk and reward is an important aspect for fantasy managers. However, it's worth noting that Sean Payton has historically been one of the most running back-friendly coaches in the NFL.
As shown in the tweet above, Payton's running backs have consistently outperformed the league average in terms of scoring. Throughout his 18 seasons as an offensive coordinator and head coach, there have been seven times when his running backs have scored over 100 points more than the league average.
From 2015 to 2021, the Saints' running backs averaged 140 targets and 111 receptions per season, along with 359 rushing attempts per season. Based on this seven-year average, Williams would only need to handle around 54% of the workload to cross the 250-touch threshold.
In 2015, Mark Ingram finished as the RB7 in half-PPR PPG scoring as a member of the Saints. Ingram followed that up with an RB10 finish in half-PPR PPG scoring in 2016. Then in 2017, Alvin Kamara finished as the RB4 while Ingram was the RB8. Kamara continued his success in the following years, finishing as the RB3 and RB5 in 2020 and 2021, respectively. After Ingram left in free agency prior to 2019, Kamara finished as the RB9 while pairing with Latavius Murray. Simply put, few coaches have been as beneficial to running backs in fantasy football as Payton has been.
The Broncos have bolstered their offensive line this offseason as well, which makes Williams even more appealing. They added free agents Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. With the return of left tackle Garrett Bolles, the Broncos are poised to have a formidable offensive line this season. Pro Football Network ranks Denver's offensive line as the 11th-best going into the 2023 season, while FTN Fantasy had them at 12th and The GameDay ranked them 13th.
As a rookie, Williams had a total of 246 touches. This offseason, the Broncos added former Bengals running back Samaje Perine. Throughout Perine's six-year NFL career, he has only surpassed 85 touches twice, with his most recent season in 2022 resulting in 133 touches. While Perine presents an intriguing option for fantasy managers late in drafts due to Williams' injury concerns, it's hard not to be enamored with Williams' potential.
By all accounts, Williams has looked fantastic in OTAs, and he appears to be on track for Week 1. Even if the Broncos bring him along slowly in the early weeks of the season, the potential upside of Williams operating as the No. 1 running back in a Sean Payton-led offense is immense and could offer surplus value at his current ADP.
Does it have some risks? Of course. But is the reward huge? Also, yes. Payton's offensive schemes have historically featured high touch totals for running backs, creating an opportunity for Williams to become a workhorse even if that role doesn't fully materialize until Week 4.
Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
RB36, ADP of 104.4
Brian Robinson's 2022 offseason was something that no one should ever have to go through. After being shot and returning in Week 5, Robinson's usage was initially limited, with him playing only 27.6% of the team's snaps and receiving just nine carries. However, in the following game, his snap share increased to 48.1% and he was given 17 carries. From Weeks 6-17, Washington kept Robinson extremely busy and he looks like a safe bet to finish with more than 250 touches this upcoming season.
| Time Period | CPG | RuPG | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TPG | SYPG |
| Weeks 6–17 | 17.7 | 68.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 18.5 | 73.8 |
| 17-Game Pace | 301 | 1,161 | 19 | 14 | 94 | 315 | 1,255 |
While he wasn't really involved in the passing game, he was on pace for over 300 carries. This certainly makes him more appealing in standard leagues. While he may not be as appealing in full-PPR leagues due to his limited involvement in the passing game, his high volume of carries makes him a viable option in half-PPR formats at his current price. Luckily, Robinson's established role in the red zone for the Commanders adds to his value for fantasy managers.
Based on the time period above, Robinson handled 44% of the red zone carries to Antonio Gibson's 35%. More importantly, Robinson's utilization increased as the team got close to the end zone. He received 56% of the team's carries inside the five-yard line, compared to just 25% for Gibson. This tells fantasy managers that Robinson is a safe bet to receive the majority of red zone scoring opportunities on the ground.
| Time Period | RZ Carries | Carries Inside the 10 |
Carries Inside the 5
|
| Per Game Averages | 2.18 | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| 17-Game Pace | 37 (12th) | 14 (28th) | 14 (5th) |
In the table above, you can see how many carries Robinson averaged per game inside the 20, 10, and five-yard lines, respectively. You can also see how those per-game averages would translate over 17 games. In parentheses, you can see where those numbers would have ranked among running backs last season. When you combine Robinson eclipsing our 250-touch threshold and his role in the red zone, he could make for a good late-round target for fantasy managers that address other positions early.
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