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The bulk of the 2024 MLB season is set to get underway, but fantasy baseball drafts will take place up to the first pitch on Opening Day and beyond. There is still time to find and analyze which players are sleepers and which players have bust potential ahead of Thursday's action.
Chas McCormick, Kerry Carpenter, and Adolis Garcia are three players that baseball fans are buzzing about, and all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.
Should you draft McCormick, Carpenter, or Garcia in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.
Chas McCormick Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 157
Current ADP: ~pick 179
Analysis: On paper, Chas McCormick's 2023 season was spectacular. The outfielder took a step forward in his third season in the majors, slashing .273/.353/.489 with 22 home runs, 59 runs, 70 RBI, and 19 stolen bases through 115 games. Despite the impressive numbers, a crowded Astros outfield meant the 28-year-old lacked the regular at-bats necessary to be incredibly productive in fantasy baseball. But with GM Dana Brown committing to McCormick as a regular starter in the outfield, he is worth serious consideration in fantasy.
His 11.1% barrel rate, 38.4% sweet spot rate, and .415 xwOBAcon point to continued power production in 2024. While a .341 xwOBA compared to a wOBA of .362 indicates some hitting luck, his contact rate has improved significantly since the start of his career (from 65.9% in his rookie year to 73% in 2023), so a solid batting average is also in play. And despite his sprint speed falling to 28.2 ft/sec, his mark of 19 steals was a career best. With the potential to contribute in all five categories, McCormick is a worthwhile pick at his ADP.
Kerry Carpenter Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 183
Current ADP: ~pick 213
Analysis: After a short taste of the majors in 2022, Kerry Carpenter put together a great 2023 season. He hit his way into a full-time role, slashing .278/.340/.471 with 20 home runs, 64 RBI, 57 runs, and six stolen bases through 118 games. The 2019 19th-round draft pick was solid offensively to start the season, but a shoulder injury that took him off the field in May meant a long-term spot in Detroit was yet to be secured.
Kerry Carpenter hits his second #SpringTraining home run, contributing to the Tigers' total of four homers so far today!
pic.twitter.com/fwTkuC8Pup— OutOfSightSports🚀™️ (@OOSSports) March 21, 2024
He followed up a mediocre July with a fantastic August performance, slashing .347/.405/.653 with nine home runs, 20 RBI, 21 runs, and two stolen bases through 28 games. With a .280 xBA and four short porch home runs in August, it isn't reasonable to expect him to replicate that effort. However, Carpenter's .339 xwOBA, .258 xBA, and .460 xSLG in 2023 are all metrics of an above-average hitter. With a spot secured at the top of the order, the 26-year-old should be solid on the offensive side in 2024.
With an incredibly low ADP of 183, the young outfielder is well worth drafting at his ADP.
Adolis Garcia Fantasy Baseball Value
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 38
Current ADP: ~51
Analysis: Adolis Garcia enjoyed a stellar 2023 season with the World Series champion Texas Rangers, slashing .245/.328/.508 with 39 HR and nine steals. The career-best in HRs was supported by outstanding Statcast metrics: 115.1 mph max exit velocity, 16.1% rate of Brls/BBE, and 95.9 mph average airborne exit velocity, plus a surge in FB% (46.9 vs. 39.8 in 2022).
It's everything fantasy managers look for to sustain a power increase, and Garcia's .523 xSLG suggests that there could be further upside. Garcia also improved his plate discipline in 2023, besting his career marks in both K% (27.7 vs. 29.1 career) and BB% (10.3 vs. 7.1) with corresponding improvements in SwStr% (14.4 vs. 16.1) and chase rate (33 vs. 37.6). The only negative was the nine steals after Garcia swiped 25 in 2022, and he lost a step, per Statcast Sprint Speed (27.3 ft./sec vs. 28 in 2022).
His 90% success rate indicates he should still swipe a few bags, however. Projected to hit third in the potent Texas lineup, Garcia delivers value at his current ADP of 51.
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