RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~40
CURRENT ADP: ~50 overall
ANALYSIS: Morton’s price may rise as more top-end starting pitchers succumb to injury or potential COVID shutdown, but his current discount is nearly a full round in most formats. That’s plenty of room for profit given his elite turnaround since adding velocity at the end of 2016. He was one of 10 qualified SPs with a strikeout rate of at least 30%, as well as one of 11 above 28% in 2018.
Not only that but he injury concerns with him are perhaps unfairly weighing older information. Morton has thrown a minimum of 146 innings in each of the last three years and has made improvements in ERA and K% in each of the last three years. What's more, his BB% was a seven-year low 7.2% last year, which also gives him some ratio stability.
Lastly, his 2.81 FIP in 2019 was bested only by Max Scherzer (2.45), Gerrit Cole (2.64), and Jacob deGrom (2.67), with no other qualified SP finishing below 3.00. He’s got the whiffs and the ratios to offer SP1 upside for those that focus on hitting early, while also making for a monstrous SP2 on more balanced squads. In a short season, it would be a shame to discount Morton for his inability to consistently pitch a full season considering no pitchers will be throwing more than around 60 innings.
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