Raiders vs. Chargers Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Jimmy Garoppolo

Welcome to our Chargers vs. Raiders fantasy football start 'em, sit' em matchups analysis article for Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season.

Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: Chargers -5.0
Implied Total: Raiders (21.75) vs. Chargers (26.75)
Pace: Raiders (24th) vs. Chargers (5th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 4.1% Pass (20th), -48.9% Rush (32nd)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 41.2% Pass (5th), 3.4% Rush (8th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 35.0% Pass (29th), -1.6% Rush (22nd)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 31.6% Pass (28th), 5.5% Rush (27th)

Matchups We Love

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

It's impossible to write about the Chargers without acknowledging the season-ending injury to Mike Williams. Health has been the only thing capable of slowing him. It's a little scary for Herbert because we saw injuries rob him of an elite year in 2022. Williams isn't the only star sidelined, as Austin Ekeler has missed their past two contests. They'll need him back if they're going to sustain their elite passing attack, but against the Raiders, Herbert will be able to make due.

Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)

Allen flexed his passing skills, tossing a 49-yard bomb to Williams. That was in addition to his 18 receptions for 215 yards. Aside from Justin Jefferson, there's no one else in football seeing the kind of volume Allen's getting. It's a little concerning long-term because we've seen him break down, but for now, he's ready to roll.

Keenan Allen in winning people fantasy matchups. pic.twitter.com/nJWpRFgANB

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 25, 2023

The team made a notable adjustment after losing Ekeler, shifting from a 47% neutral pass rate, which ranked 30th, to a 74% neutral pass rate, which ranks first. The sample size is small, so the most accurate number is likely somewhere in between, but it provides some insight as to how they cater their game plan to their personnel. Losing Williams could cause a shift towards the 47% mark from Week 1. In either case, the next man up is Joshua Palmer, who filled in for a significant stretch last year. He becomes a top-36 receiver with a top-24 upside, while Quentin Johnston is more of a stash to see if his usage gets a bump.

Matchups We Hate

None

Other Matchups

Davante Adams (WR, LV)

The concentration of targets to Adams and Jakobi Meyers (when active) has been outrageous. In the two games they've played together, they've combined for a 73% target share. It's fantastic for fantasy, making the decisions very easy. Unfortunately, their outlook might take a hit because Jimmy Garoppolo is in the concussion protocol. If he can't go, it's either veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell. Both are a downgrade, but the rookie has more unknown potential. The matchup is good enough to counteract the QB concerns, keeping them both in play.

UPDATE: Garoppolo is listed as questionable after practicing on Thursday and Friday. Adams is in no matter what, but it would thrust Meyers into the top 24 if Garoppolo returns. It would also making Garoppolo himself a sneaky streamer.

Jimmy Garoppolo returned to #Raiders practice but he's still in concussion protocol. This sound bite from Josh McDaniels tells me that he's leaning on starting Aidan O'Connell if Jimmy can't play. He says "experience" isn't indicative of success pic.twitter.com/1OhsB1TyGL

— The Ballast (@ballastsports) September 29, 2023

Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)

Jacobs has accounted for 71.4% of his team's total rushing attempts, which is the sixth-highest, and has a 14.9% target share, which is the fifth-highest. The workload is on par with his RB3 campaign, but the production hasn't followed. Things improved against the Steelers, but only to the point of an RB20 finish. Betting on those touches is typically a good bet to make. A backup signal-caller pours some cold water on that, but the matchup is ideal, so he's back in the top 20 with a top-12 upside if things correct themselves.

Chargers TEs

The other beneficiaries from Williams' absence are Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. Parham has hauled in a touchdown on 50% of his catches, which is obviously unsustainable, but Everett earned six targets against Minnesota. It's a great matchup to throw Everett out there as a high-end streamer.

Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)

We referenced the philosophical change the offense made since losing Ekeler. In addition to the pass-first approach, they also aren't throwing to Kelley. He has just one catch on three targets. The matchup and offense would indicate he's a player to start, but the way he's busted the past two weeks makes it really challenging to do.

For those willing to trust the process, he could score or rack up yards on the ground. For those unwilling to take the shot, it's possible we see exactly what we saw the past two weeks. This one is tough. Additionally, Ekeler is back at practice, which is worth monitoring into the weekend.

UPDATE: Ekeler is doubtful to play this week, which lines up with the earlier comments about his limited mobility. You can assume he'll be out at this point.

Notable Injuries

Austin Ekeler (ankle)
Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion)

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