RADIO
The playoffs are in full swing but it's not too early to look forward to next year's fantasy season.
With teams going all out and putting out their strongest rotations, we can see how teams truly value each of their pieces, so big performances and surprising turns can be taken with more validity than during the last few months of the regular season.
Let's take a look at some of the more surprising performances so far this postseason, and try to analyze what it could mean for their stock in next year's fantasy season.
Changing Tides: A Look Into Surprising NBA Playoff Performances
Rajon Rondo, PG, New Orleans Pelicans
So the myth of playoff Rondo is real, and a locked-in Rondo looked fantastic on both ends of the floor in the Pelicans evisceration of the Portland Trail Blazers. He's nearly averaged a triple double this postseason with 11.3/13.3/7.5 splits in the popcorn stats to go with 0.8 steals and 3-pointers apiece, in 35 minutes a game. Rondo showed flashes of this form last season in the 2 games before he got hurt as the Bulls stole the first 2 games from the 1 seed Boston Celtics, and he has played a huge part in the Pelicans success so far this postseason, taking primary ball-handling duties and unlocking Jrue Holiday as a potent off-ball threat.
Outlook: Doesn't move the needle on his value much
Rondo's contract situation does put a question mark on his value next season, as he is an unrestricted free agent and it's unclear whether one good postseason can make up for a few years of regular season track record suggesting that he is not consistently a good player. His effort level wanes during the regular season, and his value next season will depend a lot on his situation more so than his talent and productivity. If he finds himself in a situation where he can consistently get more than 25 minutes a game, he will still be a strong option in punt points leagues, and a great source of steals, assists and out of position boards.
Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans
All Holiday's performance this postseason has done is narrow the still incomprehensible gap between his value and performance and the public perception of Jrue as a player. Holiday has been excellent for quite some time now, yet doesn't get the recognition as a star that many other players worse than him receive. With averages of 27.8/6.5/4.0 in the spotlight of the postseason, it looks like the gap between how good Holiday is and how good people think he is will finally narrow. Unfortunately, this means he will probably be drafted a little more appropriately next year.
Outlook: Won't inexplicably fall as far in drafts next season as he has in the past
Jrue Holiday is a dynamic 2-way guard who can play both on and off ball, and his extremely high steal rate makes him an elite fantasy guard that has been consistently undervalued over the years due to overblown injury concerns and lack of name recognition. The fact that he has racked up 6.5 assists per game this post season playing off the ball shows that even as a 2, he can get dimes, and the elite steal rate won't be going away any time soon. One thing that makes Holiday unique is his out of position FG%, which makes him very easy to slot into a number of builds. Jrue should be valued around where Mike Conley has been the past few seasons ( in the 20s), and next year looks to be the year he will get finally get his due.
Derrick Rose, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
Derrick Rose has been surprisingly productive for the Wolves in their playoff series against the 1-seed Rockets, providing a much needed spark off the bench. Reunited with his old coach Tom Thibodeau from his glory days in Chicago, Rose has gotten a green light to run the offense and he's responded with 14.8 ppg in 24 minutes per game this series. He's also hit 1.3 3s per game, a part of his game that has been severely lacking for him all career.
Outlook: This is a mirage
You can dismiss this as fast as you can because nothing about this performance is sustainable. The 3-point shooting and 52.0 FG% is being buoyed but a ridiculous 71.4% 3-point shooting percentage and Rose has still been as anemic as ever in assists and steals with 2.8 and 0.5 respectively over the 4 game series so far. While this makes for a pretty cool story (Rose performing for his old coach), there is nothing here to suggest that he has turned a corner, and he is still undraftable in most formats next season.
Carmelo Anthony, SF/PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
While playoff Rondo has been a thing, Olympic Melo has been proven again and again to be a myth and his performance in the Thunder's first round series against Utah has been an abomination to put it lightly. Melo has averaged just 12.8 points per game on 36.9% shooting and only 1.2 3s per game on a putrid 21.4% 3-point rate. This is Melo we're talking about, so if he's not scoring anymore, then what use does he have?
Outlook: Undraftable
Someone will still take Melo because of the name value, just make sure that someone isn't you. It's telling that in the Thunder's frantic game 5 comeback, the run was ignited when Melo went to the bench, and he didn't come in until the Thunder had completed the comeback and taken the lead. Melo is a very bad player now, who doesn't contribute in the defensive categories and can't even score much anymore, and he should not be drafted at all next year.
