RADIO
Once again, it is time to attempt to sort through the statistical noise that comes standard with every baseball season and work out whether current performances are sustainable or if significant regression should be expected. This week, we look at a pitcher making a strong case for Comeback Player of the Year, a Pirates outfielder that seems to be the least popular player among his owners, and some Washington Nationals outfielder. I forget his name, but he is one of those under the radar types.
AJ Burnett (SP, PIT)
You would be forgiven if you forgot about Burnett heading into your 2015 drafts, as he was coming off a truly putrid campaign for a bad team. However, he has now proven that he deserves your undivided attention. Owner of a 6-1 record to go with a sparkling 2.20 ERA and 2.87 FIP, the guy that was finished in Philadelphia is a star in the Steel City. His 8.27 K/9 is solid, while his BB/9 are down significantly compared to last season (2.84 to 4.04). Can he keep this up?
The answer is yes, as his knucklecurve has become a dominant offering. Against this pitch, opposing batters have just a 59.1% contact rate, swinging and missing at it 19.7% of the time. It is also fooling batters into chasing it outside of the strike zone at a 42.1% clip. This gives Burnett the kind of put away pitch that older pitchers can sometimes lack, and supports at least the sustainability of his current strikeout pace.
Sometimes batters do make contact, however, so Burnett has an elite grounder rate to go with his strikeouts. His groundball rate is up to 55.4% this season, up from 50.9% as a Phillie. This is significant because it closely mirrors Burnett's rate in his previous run of success in a Pirates uniform (56.9% in 2012, 56.5% in 2013). Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage has worked magic with reclamation projects like Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, and Burnett himself before - and part of that magic is a groundball rate like referenced. The formula to bring this about has been an explosion of sinker usage (up to 52.3% from 37.2%), which seems logical. After all, a sinker's purpose is to induce a groundball, so throwing more of them should lead to more groundballs. Burnett's sinker is doing its job, generating a grounder 50.8% of the time and being a strike 58.1% of the time if allowed to go by. Do that twice, and the knucklecurve will put you away - or generate grounders at a 68.9% clip if it is hit. The two pitches are a nasty combination, requiring only token support from a fastball and a changeup to retire major league batters.
Therefore, both the Ks and the groundballs are supported by Burnett's peripherals. The sinker's habit of being in the strike zone also explains why fewer batters are walking against Burnett. Burnett has seen some luck in an elevated strand rate (82.1%) and low HR/FB (6.4%), but he has the K potential for the former and the grounders to not be hurt too much by the latter. He has also been the recipient of some rather poor BABIP luck (.314) for a pitcher with a history of low line drive rates (career 18.7%) on a team that shifts a ton. Overall, I cannot endorse Burnett strongly enough. He is the real deal.
Verdict: Champ
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT)
If I had a dollar for every fantasy owner complaining about Polanco on baseball forums, I could play in a lot more fantasy leagues. Polanco currently has a triple slash line of .251/.313/.371 with three homers, 13 SB, and three CS. He has a slightly favorable .308 BABIP, but it is supported by a decreased flyball rate (31.4% last year, 25.4% this). Flies have the lowest BABIPs of any batted ball type, so reducing them figures to lead to stronger BABIPs. More specifically, Polanco has cut back significantly on his infield flies (11.6% last year to 2.9% this), a batted ball type that yielded just a .015 batting average to major league batters in 2014. Combined with an uptick in contact rate (78.9% to 80.9% this season) and a solid walk rate (8.3%), Polanco could see a higher batting average in the not too distant future.
That projection becomes rosier when his BABIP is examined in closer detail. On grounders, Polanco currently sports a BABIP of just .219. League average is around .249, and with Polanco's speed he should be able to sustain something better than average. While some fast guys never parlay their speed into base hits, most do and Polanco is still only 23. In short, the BABIP should rise along with the average.
"But where's my power?" malcontent fantasy owner whines. Roughly a third into the season, Polanco has three bombs - that's a pace for around 10 given a full season. Polanco is also on pace for 40 SBs and a great stealing percentage with the potential for a strong average and a bunch of runs scored on a postseason team that only recently started to look like it. That is an elite leadoff hitter that is a nonzero in the power categories - a pretty strong asset. His HR/FB is below average but still respectable at 8.8%, and while he might hit a couple more bombs with more flies that would weaken his batting average projection going forward. Polanco owners need to remember that they drafted Gregory Polanco, not Andrew McCutchen, got him at a much lower price than his teammate, and that "potential" to be McCutchen-lite does not mean "will be McCutchen at age 23." Anyone that thought Polanco was McCutchen is a Chump, but Polanco is definitely a . . .
Verdict: Champ
Bryce Harper (OF, WAS)
So unless you've lived on Jupiter for the past five years you know all about this guy. Harper has finally started to live up to his potential this early season, posting a ludicrous .325/.469/.724 triple slash line with 18 HR, two SB, and 43 RBI at age 22. He is striking out less (26.3% to 22.5%) and walking much more frequently (9.6% to 21.1%). His contact rate is up (72.7% to 77.9%) and his whiff rate is down (13.8% to 9.5%). Clearly, this is the breakout everyone has been waiting for, right?
This may sound crazy, but I'm not sure. No one is as good as Harper's current numbers, but even discounting that there are some issues with approach, luck, and team. As for his approach, the sky high walk rate might lead you to believe that he has mastered the strike zone. This is not really the case, as while his O-Swing% is down compared to last season (35.7% to 29.7%) his Z-Swing% is also down by a comparable margin (75.5% to 70.7%). He is simply swinging at fewer pitches, which is currently leading to walks because pitchers are petrified of him. Eventually, he will cool off and pitchers will see that he is giving them a first pitch strike - like what happened to Joey Votto. It might be a justifiable approach to hitting, but it is one that fantasy owners find frustrating. A true breakout would be to be aggressive in the zone and selective outside of it, and Harper is not doing that.
Next up is luck, manifested in a .354 overall BABIP and 36% HR/FB. Babe Ruth couldn't sustain those numbers, and Harper hasn't either - at least not together. Harper's luck has been a tale of two months: In April, he posted a .395 BABIP on the back of a 25.5% LD% - a number prone to fluctuation with no support in Harper's history. Even while remaining scorching hot in May, the liners fell to 22.1% with a BABIP of .321 as a result. Should the liners finish returning to a normal pace, the .325 average will be a thing of the past. His average has not been affected yet because bombs count as knocks in batting average, and May saw Harper's HR/FB spike to a ridiculous 39.4%. You know that number is going down, which is why 13 HR months do not happen very often. April's HR/FB was 29.4% - still unsustainably high but not by quite as much. He hit five bombs in April, and there are four months left in the season. Figure some regression at four bombs a month, and that is 16 the rest of the way - less than his current total in half the time.
Harper has also demonstrated that he could be vulnerable to a lower than average BABIP going forward. On groundballs, Harper's BABIP is a measly .184 - a result of opposing teams shifting against him. Shifts have proven difficult to beat for other players, and Harper should be no exception. He has also seen his FB% spike (43.5% this year, 34.5% career). This can be seen as growth in a young power hitter, but even the best of them have to deal with an elevated popup rate as a result of all of the balls in the air. Harper hasn't yet, with a IFFB% of just 6% compared to last year's 14.3% mark. That number is going up, so the average will go down.
Finally, Harper's skull seems to be magnetically attracted to outfield walls, leaving him more prone to injury than would be the norm given his age. The Nationals also have a history of being overly cautious with their young studs, preferring to wrap Stephen Strasburg in bubble wrap rather than compete for a World Series title most notably. With a weak division (NYM are not as good as some think) the Nats could easily have the division won by September 1. Harper could sneeze and get a week off in that scenario. Fantasy teams would likely still need him even if the Nats don't, which could lead to aggravation.
Make no mistake - Harper's season thus far has been amazing, and he has already matched my low preseason expectations for him. However, he will not hit 70 HR or hit .300, and he probably will miss time for one reason or another. He can't be labelled a Chump, but I do not think he is a Champ either. I would try to trade him, if only to see what his current value would be in other players. Kershaw and Trout?
Verdict: Sell
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