X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Lucas Erceg and Coby Mayo Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Coby Mayo - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookies

Are Lucas Erceg (Royals RP) and Coby Mayo (Orioles 3B) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

MLB's trade deadline was a week ago today. Roles are still unsettled, and talented players will receive their first opportunity. This will probably be the last chance for fantasy managers to add impact talent off waivers until September call-ups.

Lucas Erceg was traded from the A's to the Royals, and he doesn't have a fantasy-friendly role in Kansas City... yet. Meanwhile, the Orioles shuffled their roster and called up two big prospects: Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo. Mayo is a name that should be on the fantasy radar.

Without further ado, let's find out what these two players offer in fantasy.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Lucas Erceg (RP, KC) 8% Rostered

Erceg has pitched to a 3.46 ERA over 39 IP this season, and he's deserved that mark no matter which ERA estimator you trust most. His xERA is 3.59, his FIP is 3.30, and his xFIP is 3.41. He also has three saves on the year, though they all came in Oakland.

Erceg isn't a household name, but his strikeout stuff is real. He has a 27.0% K% against an 8.0% BB% and features a legitimate four-pitch mix: fastball, slider, sinker, and change. His fastball is probably his best pitch. It averages 98.5 mph, within the 99th percentile of all MLB pitchers. It gets Erceg ahead with a 56.6% Zone% and puts opposing hitters away with a 13.2% SwStr%. His sinker works similarly with a 9.4% SwStr% and 54.3% Zone%.

Erceg's slider has more vertical break than horizontal break, and posts underwhelming strikeout indicators: 12.8% SwStr%, 41.1% Zone%, and a 31.3% chase rate. Still, hitters have struggled against it to the tune of a .186/.304/.322 line. Erceg's change is a work-in-progress with a 46.3% Zone% and 16.3% SwStr% but a 33.3% chase rate and a .391/.440/.696 slash line against.

Erceg is 29 years old but didn't start pitching full-time until 2022, so it makes sense he's still learning. Kansas City is also an ideal landing spot for him. The Royals lead MLB with 35 Outs Above Average as a team, while the A's rank last at -35. The superlative defensive support should help Erceg outpitch his peripherals moving forward.

Likewise, Kansas City's closer job is wide open. James McArthur is the current closer, but his 16.8% K% and 5.32 ERA aren't closer material. Hunter Harvey has received closing opportunities too, and his 4.44 ERA is better than McArthur's. However, he had a 6.97 ERA in June (10.1 IP), an 8.00 ERA in July (9.0 IP), and a 9.00 ERA so far this month (2.0 IP).

Erceg is easily the best pitcher in this bullpen, he has late-inning experience, and Kansas City is in the thick of the playoff hunt. They'll make the switch sooner than later, and Erceg will become a Champ in fantasy.

 

Coby Mayo (3B, BAL) 33% Rostered

Few scouts question Mayo's bat even if they have concerns about his glove. The fourth-round draft pick in 2020 climbed to No. 15 on MLB Pipeline's top-100 prospects list and No. 12 on the FanGraphs list before his MLB debut. He doesn't have a hit yet, but look at his scouting reports:

Both scouting reports see a slightly below-average hit tool that his massive power more than makes up for. Mayo's MiLB resume supports the power, but his hitting tool looks better than the scouts expected.

Mayo first reached the high minors with Double-A (Bowie) in 2022, slashing .250/.331/.398 with five homers in 145 PAs. His 34.5% K% looked alarming, but his 11.3% SwStr% wasn't bad for a 20-year-old at Double-A and his 8.3% BB% was promising.

Mayo returned to Bowie in 2023 and conquered the level, hitting .307/.424/.603 with 17 HR and four steals over 347 PAs. His SwStr% declined to 10.2%, helping Mayo trim his K% to 24.8%. He also refined his eye, walking in 14.7% of his PAs. He even added considerable loft to his swing, increasing his FB% (36% to 40.5%) and LD% (20% to 24.5%).

The performance punched Mayo's ticket to Triple-A (Norfolk), where he hit .267/.393/.512 with 12 HR and a steal in 267 PAs. His SwStr% held steady at 10.5% despite facing more advanced competition, leading to a solid 23.2% K%. His 25% chase rate also suggested an advanced understanding of the zone and helped produce an exceptional 15.7% BB%. Mayo's added loft stuck with a 40.6% FB% and 23.9% LD% as well.

Mayo returned to Norfolk for the 2024 campaign and performed even better, hitting .301/.375/.586 with 20 HR and four steals in 341 PAs. His 10% BB% wasn't as high as the previous year, but his 25.5% chase rate was virtually unchanged. His 12.1% SwStr% contributed to a 24.3% K%, but a few extra strikeouts were a small price for a power uptick.

Mayo increased his FB% to 46.3% while his LD% held steady at 23.8%. Better yet, Mayo meaningfully cut down on pop-ups. In 2023, he had an IFFB% of 28.6%. This year, his IFFB% is 17.2%. You need to halve MiLB IFFB% marks to get a major league equivalent since the stat is calculated differently on the farm, and Mayo seems to have nipped a potential issue in the bud.

Mayo's HR/FB consistently hovers around 20%, so the power in his scouting report is showing up in games. However, this author fails to see a below-average hit tool. Swing-and-miss hasn't been an issue for him at any level, and he's posted above-average LD% rates since 2023 (roughly 950 PAs). Mayo's plate discipline is a strength, so poor swing decisions shouldn't adversely affect him. He even has a 50% Sweet Spot% in his first three MLB games.

Mayo was only successful on 50% of his SB attempts this season, so fantasy managers shouldn't count on any steals from him. The Orioles haven't given their top prospects much of a leash this season, so there is some risk he goes back to Norfolk if he gets off to a slow start. He's hit eighth in each of his first three games, and Baltimore even pinch-hit for him once. Still, Mayo's upside and likelihood of reaching it are too great to ignore.

Scouts may not like the look of Mayo's swing, but all available evidence suggests it gets the job done. He knows how to elevate the baseball, is willing to take a walk, and has 30 HR upside over a full season. Mayo is a Champ who should be rostered in all formats.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Darius Garland

Available "Under the Right Circumstances"
Zach Edey

to Undergo Surgery, Expected to Miss Start of the Season
Seiya Suzuki

Slugs Two Home Runs in Win Over Tigers
Miami Dolphins

Ben Stille Reuniting with Miami
Chimere Dike

Signed by Tennessee
Dillon Gabriel

Inks Rookie Deal
James Cook

to Miss Mandatory Minicamp?
Tyler Reddick

Has Tire Issue in Practice at Michigan
Ryan Preece

Should Have Good Speed at Michigan
Brad Keselowski

a Core DFS Play at Michigan
Chase Briscoe

Continues to Find Speed in Qualifying, Wins Pole for Michigan
Chris Buescher

Looking for Another Win at Michigan
Christopher Bell

Has Puzzling History at Michigan
Ty Gibbs

a Risky but Cheap DFS Option at Michigan
Erik Jones

Has Sneaky Upside at Michigan
AJ Allmendinger

has Horrible Track Record at Michigan
Ty Dillon

has Top-20 Upside at Michigan
Luther Burden III

Still Missing From Practice
Jaquan Brisker

Feeling Better
Devaughn Vele

Turning Heads During Offseason Workouts
Carlos Correa

Back in Action on Saturday
Cody Ware

Could Cody Ware Be a Super Punt DFS Option at Michigan?
Bryce Harper

Lands on Injured List
Sam Hauser

Possibly on the Move?
De'Aaron Fox

: "I'll be Ready for Next Year"
Evan Bouchard

Enjoys Three-Point Period In Game 2 Against Panthers
Connor McDavid

Joins Rare Company with Three-Assist Effort
Sam Bennett

Makes NHL History with Another Goal Friday
Seth Jones

Fills Stat Sheet in Game 2 Against Oilers
Anton Lundell

Notches Two Assists in Friday's Win
Brad Marchand

Leads Panthers to Victory in Game 2 Against Oilers
Tee Higgins

Trying to Prevent Injuries
Lamar Jackson

Extension for Lamar Jackson on Ravens Docket
Anthony Volpe

Leaves Early Friday With Elbow Contusion
Gabriel Moreno

Exits Early on Friday With Hand Injury
Tyreek Hill

Won't Catch Passes Until August
Shane Bieber

Shut Down From Throwing Until Next Week
Ryan Mountcastle

Out 8-12 Months With Grade 2 Hamstring Strain
Rome Odunze

Anticipates Big Year 2
Shea Langeliers

A's Place Shea Langeliers on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Keilan Robinson

Joins Eagles
Ladd McConkey

Focused on Staying Healthy
Logan O'Connor

to Miss 5-6 Months Following Hip Procedure
Ezequiel Tovar

Rockies Place Ezequiel Tovar on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Strain
Francisco Lindor

Out Again on Friday With Toe Injury
Tyler Seguin

Nursing a Shoulder Injury
DAL

Pete DeBoer Fired by Stars
Stuart Skinner

Seeks Sixth Consecutive Win Friday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Looks to Return to Winning Ways Friday
A.J. Greer

Remains Out Friday
Corbin Burnes

to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Bryce Harper

Day-to-Day With Sore Wrist, Not Playing on Friday
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning on Friday
Ryan Ritter

Promoted to Major Leagues
Gardner Minshew II

Throwing at OTAs
Rondale Moore

Active at OTAs
Colston Loveland

Could Return Soon
Kyle Monangai

has "Really Stepped Up"
Anthony Richardson

No Structural Damage to Anthony Richardson's Shoulder
Sean O'Malley

Set For A Rematch
Merab Dvalishvili

Set For His Second Title Defense
Kayla Harrison

Could Become The New UFC Champion
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena Set For Co-Main Event
Joe Pyfer

A Favorite At UFC 316
Kelvin Gastelum

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Mario Bautista

Looks For His Eighth Consecutive Win
Isaac Guerendo

Taking Part in OTAs
Patchy Mix

Makes His UFC Debut
Evan Engram

Off to a Good Start at OTAs
Alvin Kamara

Not Present for OTAs
Vicente Luque

An Underdog At UFC 316
Kevin Holland

Set To Open Up UFC 316 Main Card
Framber Valdez

Dominates the Pirates on Thursday
Marcus Semien

Goes Deep Twice on Thursday
Alex Caruso

Shines Off the Bench in Game 1
Luguentz Dort

Knocks Down Five Triples in Game 1
Cason Wallace

Moves into the Starting Lineup in Game 1 Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Scores 38 Points in Game 1 Defeat
Obi Toppin

Drops 17 Points in Game 1
Aaron Nesmith

Posts a Double-Double in Pacers Game 1 Victory
Pascal Siakam

Leads the Pacers with 19 Points in Game 1 Win
Tyrese Haliburton

Hits Game-Winning Shot as Pacers Steal Game 1
Karl-Anthony Towns

Undergoes Treatment for Knee, Finger Issues
Kevin Durant

Knicks Reportedly Make an Offer for Kevin Durant
Tyler Soderstrom

Slugs Two Homers in Blowout Win Over Twins
Kyle Teel

Being Called Up by White Sox
Shea Langeliers

Exits Early on Thursday
Shane Bieber

Scratched With Elbow Soreness
Zack Wheeler

Phillies Expect Zack Wheeler to Return Early Next Week
Nicolas Batum

Clippers Expect Nicolas Batum to Return for Next Season
Tyus Jones

Reportedly on Kings Radar
Jeff Green

Wants to Play for Two More Years
Steven Adams

Rockets Desperate to Get Steven Adams Under a New Contract
Fred VanVleet

Likely to Remain in Houston
Nate Schmidt

Logs Pair of Helpers Wednesday
Carter Verhaeghe

Registers Two Assists In Game 1 Loss Against Oilers
Sam Bennett

Establishes New Franchise Record with 12 Postseason Goals
Kasperi Kapanen

Stays Productive in Finals Opener
Connor McDavid

Records Two Assists in Wednesday's Win
Leon Draisaitl

Scores Twice in Game 1 Win Against Panthers
Kristaps Porzingis

to be Moved This Offseason?
Phoenix Suns

Jordan Ott Named Suns Head Coach
Nikita Kucherov

Takes Home Second Ted Lindsay Award
Derek Forbort

Sticking with Canucks for One More Year
Noah Cates

Lands Four-Year, $16 Million Extension
Rico Hoey

a Decent Dark-Horse Option at TPC Toronto
Harry Hall

a Decent Option at TPC Toronto
Beau Hossler

Not Appealing Ahead of RBC Canadian Open
Taylor Pendrith

Could See Success at RBC Canadian Open
Ryan Fox

a Solid Option at TPC Toronto
Mackenzie Hughes

is a Risky Option at TPC Toronto
Eric Cole

Not A Great Option For RBC Canadian Open
Rasmus Hojgaard

a Volatile Option at TPC Toronto
Quade Cummins

Hard to Trust at RBC Canadian Open
PGA

Matti Schmid a High-Risk, High-Reward Play at TPC Toronto
Jake Knapp

a Boom-or-Bust Option at RBC Canadian Open
Doug Ghim

a Sneaky Value Play at RBC Canadian Open
Gary Woodland

a Solid Value Play at RBC Canadian Open
Rory McIlroy

Eyes Third RBC Canadian Open Title
Wyndham Clark

Hoping to Reverse Slide at RBC Canadian Open
Erik Van Rooyen

Erik van Rooyen Continues Rocky 2025 Campaign
Sahith Theegala

Trying to Find Positives in 2025
Justin Rose

Enjoying Career Renaissance at 44
John Pak

Striving to Improve on PGA Tour
Kurt Kitayama

Roller-Coaster Season to Continue in Canada
Max Homa

Motivated for RBC Canadian Open
Ludovit Klein

Outclassed At UFC Vegas 107
Mateusz Gamrot

Bounces Back In The Win Column
Ramiz Brahimaj

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Billy Ray Goff

Gets Submitted
Bruno Lopes

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Dustin Jacoby

Scores First-Round Knockout
Ketlen Vieira

Dominates at UFC Vegas 107
Macy Chiasson

Dominated At UFC Vegas 107
Duško Todorović

Dusko Todorovic Drops Three Fights in a Row
Zachary Reese

Gets Back In The Win Column
Joey Logano

Puts Together a Clean Race and Finishes In the Top Five At Nashville
William Byron

Steady Performance Earns Him a Top-Five Finish At Nashville
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Finally Returns to the Top 10 At Nashville
Kyle Larson

Rollercoaster Day At Nashville Ends In the Top 10
Tyler Reddick

Makes A Top-10 Recovery At Nashville
Ryan Blaney

Denny Hamlin Factors for Nashville Win Until Ryan Blaney's Three-Wide Pass
Ryan Blaney

Joey Logano Runs Better Than Expected, Still No Match for Teammate Ryan Blaney
Erik Jones

Delivers Best Run Since 2022 at Nashville
Christopher Bell

Recovers From Stage 2 Crash to Finish 10th
Ross Chastain

Mildly Disappointing at Nashville but Still Runs Decently
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF