X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Joey Votto and Christian Yelich

When fantasy owners invest an early draft pick in a player, they generally assume that the player in question is a lock to put up excellent fantasy stats. Joey Votto has been a model of consistency throughout his career, slashing .320/.454/.578 with 36 bombs in 2017. Unfortunately, he only produced 12 HR for his owners this year. What happened?

Christian Yelich seems likely to garner early-round attention next year, as he finally added elite power totals (33 HR) to complement his all-around game. His peripherals suggest that he is the same Yelich he has always been, however, which means that next season's HR totals won't approach this year's.

Let's take a closer look at both of the superstars above.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Joey Votto (1B, CIN) - 96% Owned

Votto hasn't been the player his owners expected at all, slashing just .285/.418/.422 to accompany the power outage above. His plate discipline is as good as ever, as he has more walks (17.3% BB%) than strikeouts (16.3% K%). This has helped Votto deliver in OBP formats even without the pop generally expected of a first baseman.

Amazingly, Votto's .334 BABIP is on the low side relative to his career mark of .352. There's no easy explanation for this, as his LD% is up (30.9% vs. 25.7%), FB% down (30.9% vs. 33.3% career), and IFFB% literally nonexistent (0%). In a vacuum, all three of these things would be expected to have a positive effect on BABIP.

However, Votto's batted balls aren't producing what they have historically. For instance, his grounders have produced a BABIP of .212 against a career mark of .231. He's slow as molasses (25.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed this year), but that's nothing new (24.9 ft./sec last year). His exit velocity on grounders isn't great (81.4mph), but it wasn't last season either (80.4mph). Votto doesn't pull nearly enough ground balls to care about the shift (57% this year), so there's no easy answer to explain the discrepancy.

Likewise, Votto's fly balls (.145 vs. .196 career) and line drives (.656 vs. .712) are not finding grass as often as they usually do. His average airborne exit velocity is virtually identical to last season (92.5mph vs. 92.6), so that's not it. His rate of Brls/BBE has trended downward each season since 2015 (10.9% to 9.7% to 9.1% to 6.6% this season), but a slightly higher Pull% on fly balls (16.4% vs. 13.6% career) should mitigate the impact somewhat. The best conclusion is that Votto's BABIP will increase next year, but not all the way to his career norms.

Of course, a .285 average is perfectly acceptable if it comes with some pop. Votto's contact quality is comparable to last year's and he plays in a friendly home park, so why is his 9.8% HR/FB roughly half of his career mark (18.4%)? Baseball Savant's xStats say that Votto has deserved both a higher batting average (.303 xBA) and slugging percentage (.523 xSLG), so bad luck may be behind his struggles.

At age 35, it's doubtful that fantasy owners will be eager to draft Votto in 5X5 next season. If he can rebound to even 20 HR though, his elite batting average and prime spot in a sneaky offense could make him a value. Don't be afraid to take a discount if one is available.

Verdict: Champ

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) - 99% Owned

Milwaukee's offseason has proven to be the best in MLB this year, as free agent acquisition, Lorenzo Cain paces the NL in fWAR while Yelich is earning MVP consideration with a .321/.390/.583 line, 33 HR, and 21 SB (four CS). As a result, the team is in a great Wild Card position and could catch the Cubs for the division crown.

Yelich is a great baseball player and a strong fantasy asset, but his 2018 power production is unlikely to be sustainable moving forward. The knock on Yelich has always been that he doesn't hit enough fly balls, and nothing has changed this season (23.1% FB%, 20% career). Instead, his HR/FB has soared to 33% (19.8% career). Giancarlo Stanton, Khris Davis, and Joey Gallo can't sustain HR/FB rates that high. Nobody thinks Yelich has as much raw power as those guys.

Some level of HR/FB regression is likely, but how much? Yelich's contact quality has improved this season, as both his 97mph average airborne exit velocity (20th in MLB) and 12.4% rate of Brls/BBE (30th) represent career bests. He's also pulling more of his flies (16%) than he has over his career (12%). Finally, Yelich has a favorable ballpark for the first time in his career, as Milwaukee had a HR factor of 111 (tied for second) for left-handed bats in 2017. The Marlins ranked second to last with a factor of 89.

Nineteen of Yelich's 33 long balls have come at home this year, which is more big flies at home than he hit in his entire Marlins career (18). The improvements in his hitting environment and contact quality should enable Yeich to best his career HR/FB again next season, but it'll be closer to 25% than 33%. That's still really high, and fantasy owners will fantasize about what might happen if Yelich ever tried to hit more flies. Again.

The rest of Yelich's profile looks stable. His minimal FB% and above average wheels (28.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) allow him to consistently post a high BABIP (.368 this year, .358 career). His 25% LD% probably won't repeat (22.3% career), but his grounders (.263 vs. .272 career) and flies (.130 vs. .217) should regress in the other direction. xStats say that Yelich deserved a .313 average based on his contact quality and 20.6% K%, and that seems like a reasonable projection.

Yelich's 84% success rate as a base thief should earn him more SB opportunities moving forward, and his 2018 season is likely to lock him into a favorable lineup slot for the foreseeable future. Feel free to pay for 2018's numbers minus 5-10 HR next year. Whether he'll be available at that price is another story.

Verdict: Champ

 

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandon Ingram28 mins ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani36 mins ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge42 mins ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter46 mins ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo51 mins ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley58 mins ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson1 hour ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson1 hour ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins1 hour ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis1 hour ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul1 hour ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy1 hour ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk2 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle2 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann2 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges2 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.2 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes2 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin2 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George2 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon2 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman2 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson2 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Dorian Finney-Smith2 hours ago

Uncertain To Face The Sixers
Yaroslav Askarov2 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts2 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Nicolas Claxton3 hours ago

Questionable Versus Philly
Nikola Jokic3 hours ago

Absent From Practice On Thursday
Mikael Granlund3 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Cam Thomas3 hours ago

Probable On Friday Night
Alexandar Georgiev3 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope3 hours ago

Out On Thursday Night
TB3 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen3 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson3 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta3 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold3 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco3 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift4 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb4 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey4 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans4 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith5 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger6 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
Brandin Cooks6 hours ago

Preparing To Play In Week 12
CeeDee Lamb6 hours ago

Not Seen At Thursday's Practice
6 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Jets Owner Suggested Benching Aaron Rodgers
Mike Evans8 hours ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson9 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson9 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist10 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies10 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund10 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine10 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale21 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal21 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat23 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English23 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin23 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy23 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Josh Jacobs1 day ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith1 day ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Seth Jones1 day ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi1 day ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts1 day ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram1 day ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson1 day ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen1 day ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
Alex Tuch1 day ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Jordan Eberle1 day ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
Ludvig Aberg1 day ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole1 day ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP