RADIO
We continue our 2019 fantasy baseball preview with two names who could not have had more different seasons in 2018. Gary Sanchez entered last draft season as the consensus top catcher on the board. Unfortunately for his owners, he's been struggling with the Mendoza line all season.
Meanwhile, Mookie Betts has gone nuts for the Red Sox in a season that is likely to earn him MVP honors. Fantasy owners may even consider taking him over Mike Trout in 2019, but his peripherals don't quite support doing so even if much of what he is doing appears sustainable.
Let's take a closer look at a Yankee and a Red Sox.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Gary Sanchez (C, NYY) - 94% Owned
Sanchez has struggled with a right groin injury this season that has landed him on the DL two separate times. Those periods may have been his most productive for fantasy owners, as he has slashed just .182/.284/.393 with 16 HR over 349 PAs when on the field. His "lack of effort" has also landed him in the New York tabloids, but we're going to ignore that issue.
The problem with Sanchez is easy to diagnose: he only has a .193 BABIP. The immediate reaction is to expect positive regression in 2019, and his peripherals suggest a bounce back in several areas. First, his 14.2% LD% is ludicrously low, even for him (18.1% career). Sanchez hit .710 on his liners this season (.667 career), so adding an extra four percentage points of them would do a lot to lift his BABIP out of the doldrums.
Next, let's look at his .084 BABIP on ground balls (.196). Sanchez runs like the catcher he is (25.8 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed), so grounders are not his friend. Still, he hits them hard (85.6mph this year, 87.6mph last season) and shouldn't be hurt too badly by the shift (66.3% Pull% on grounders this year). Sanchez won't sniff the league average of .250 in 2019, but he should get to .150.
Finally, we have fly balls that have produced much less (.118) than they have in the past (.149). Sanchez's airborne contact quality is excellent, as his 97.8mph average ranks sixth in all of MLB (minimum 100 BBE) while his 13.8% rate of Brls/BBE ranks 21st. His IFFB% has increased (18.5% vs. 14.3% career), and honestly both numbers are too high. However, this can actually be seen as an improvement. Many players hit more pop-ups while learning to elevate the baseball, and Sanchez increased his FB% to 42.2% from a career rate of 37.9%. The increased IFFB% could represent a growing pain before a monster 2019.
Sanchez also appears to have made strides with his plate discipline in his lost season. His 12% BB% has kept his OBP usable even when the rest of his game has declined, though its underlying 31.9% chase rate suggests that he needs pitchers to fear his power if he wants to draw walks. His 24.9% K% is also a smidgen higher than his 11.9% SwStr% supports, presenting another opportunity for slight positive regression.
If nothing else, Sanchez figures to hit at least 30 HR in 2019 if he can stay healthy. Yankee Stadium is great for right-handed power hitters (112 HR factor in 2017), and few batters are better at pulling their flies than Sanchez (30.4% this year, 34.4% career). That makes it easier for a batted ball to leave the yard. Add in his increased FB%, stellar airborne contact quality, and the fact that he hit 30 bombs or more in 2016 and 2017, and Sanchez's power is a virtual lock.
Statcast's xStats agree with the analysis above. Sanchez "deserved" an average of .230 this season, a number that doesn't give Sanchez any credit for a rebound in LD% or K%. Likewise, his slugging percentage "should" be .499, over 100 points better than his actual mark of .393. It seems strange to say, but Sanchez might be the second best catcher on the board next year after JT Realmuto.
Verdict: Champ
Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - 99% Owned
Betts has provided every category for fantasy owners in 2018, slashing .339/.432/.625 with 30 HR and 28 SB (six CS) on the campaign. His airborne contact peripherals have never been better, but he needs to hit .330 to compete with Trout and his BABIP isn't quite stable enough to count on that.
Let's begin with the real growth Betts has displayed. Betts's airborne contact quality was average at best before 2018, as he averaged 92mph in 2015, 92.6mph in 2016, and 92.9mph in 2017. Likewise, his rate of Brls/BBE in each of those seasons were 5.7%, 5.3%, and 4.5%. Both improved dramatically this season, as his exit velocity shot up to 95.9mph while his rate of Brls/BBE jumped to 14%. A 15.9% HR/FB looks out of place next to a career mark of 11.5%, but it's at least sustainable (with possible upside) if Betts keeps hitting the ball this well.
Betts also brings elite plate discipline to the table. His 13.2% BB% is nearly equivalent to his 14.5% K%, and both metrics are supported by his chase rate (19.9%) and SwStr% (5.1%). His 35.9% Swing% might be low enough to inflate his K% in a Joey Votto sort of way, but you're doing something right if the words Joey Votto come up when talking about your plate discipline.
Betts's 82% success rate on the bases is also excellent, making his SB total repeatable for the foreseeable future. He's not one of the fastest guys in the majors, as his 28.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed only ranks 147th in the league. However, he makes up for it with superlative instincts and an amazing ability to read pitchers.
Unfortunately, Betts's batting average has been fairly random recently. His .358 BABIP is 90 points better than last year's mark of .268 and 45 better than his career mark of .313. Some of his changes could be sustainable, such as his higher BABIP on fly balls (.144 vs. .137 career) and line drives (.733 vs. .658) presumably rooted in his improved contact quality. He also increased his LD% slightly (20.7% vs. 19.1% career) while enjoying a lower IFFB% (9.5% vs. 11.9% career).
Still, his .372 BABIP on ground balls stands out as an obvious outlier. Regular readers know that we're leery of anything above .280, especially when a player's average exit velocity on grounders (88.6mph) is no better than his work in prior seasons (87.4mph, 89.6mph, 89.3mph starting with 2017). Betts is also pulling more of his grounders this year (64.1%) than he has in the past (55.2% career). It's not a problem yet, but could become one if the trend continues.
Betts's most ardent supporters may cite his .315 career BABIP on ground balls as evidence that most of what he is doing is sustainable, and there is a chance that they could be right. However, the BABIP gods are fickle mistresses. It was just one season ago that Betts finished with a .263 BABIP on grounders that was largely responsible for the worst season of his big league career.
Personally, I also feel that the Red Sox waste Betts's power in the leadoff spot. He scores plenty of runs up there, but he would get a comparable number plus a lot more RBI if he hit second or third. Betts is a great baseball player, but traditional roto leagues don't give him credit for his elite defense or exceptional eye. Take him in the first round, but only if Trout is already off the board.
Verdict: Chump (if Trout is available), Champ otherwise
