X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Frankie Montas and Jonathan Loaisiga

If you're participating in the Rotoballer Challenge on the RT Sports platform, you've probably noticed that they have a list of the most acquired and dropped players for the week on every league's homepage. This past week, all 10 of the listed adds were starting pitchers. Everybody is apparently looking for an extra arm.

With this in mind, let's look at two waiver arms who may be calling your name. Frankie Montas has a sterling ERA and plenty of raw talent, but he appears to be receiving some terrible coaching. Jonathan Loaisiga is the latest Yankee prospect to get the call, and there is a lot to like about the beginning of his career.

Let's see if either is worth a waiver claim.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Frankie Montas (SP, OAK) - 24% Owned

Montas is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA this season, but his underlying 4.32 xFIP in his 33 2/3 IP suggests that he hasn't been as good as he's looked. His minor league career suggests a lot of upside, but his MLB pitch selection suggests that he's being advised to avoid it.

Montas cracked the High Minors in 2015 with Double-A Birmingham, the Chicago White Sox affiliate. He was solid but not spectacular, posting a 2.97 ERA and 3.53 xFIP in 112 IP. He got a few Ks (23.2% K%) while walking too many (10.3% BB%), ultimately succeeding on the back of a 2.6% HR/FB. Birmingham is a pitcher's park (0.860 HR factor from 2014-2016), so Montas probably doesn't deserve all of the credit for that.

He didn't deserve broken ribs either, but he was limited to 15 IP across two levels in 2016 due to the injury. Considering the size of the sample and the fact that he was pitching hurt while on the field, let's throw out the season.

That brings us to 2017, where he opened the season for Triple-A Nashville (Oakland's affiliate). He only pitched 29 1/3 IP before getting a big league callup, but they were enticing! He struck out the world (31.1% K%) without walking too many (5.9% BB%) and keeping the ball on the ground (52.7% GB%). His 5.22 ERA was putrid thanks to a 56.8% strand rate and 22.2% HR/FB, but xFIP argues he deserved a 2.75 mark.

Oakland's brass went with his xFIP, calling him up to the show for 32 IP. His 7.03 ERA was horrendous, and his 5.18 xFIP provided little comfort. His K% (23.7%) was all right, but he walked too many (13.2% BB%) and somehow allowed a .349 BABIP and 26.3% HR/FB. The ground ball tendency he flashed at Triple-A was also MIA (35.5% GB%), making his big league debut very forgettable from a fantasy perspective.

He got a ticket back to Nashville for this season, and transformed into a completely different pitcher. His ERA (4.39) and xFIP (4.48) evened out, both registering as mediocre. His BB% decreased to 7.6%, while his K% fell to 19.2%. His GB% (47.5%) increased, but it's not elite. He went from a promising power arm to a fourth starter?

We don't have the minor league stats to determine what changed, but what he's done since his callup provides a pretty good indication. He's cut back on both his fastball (36.8% to 10.9%) and slider (28% to 21.6%) in favor of a sinker-heavy approach (29.5% to 64.1%), while also losing significant velocity (98.4mph last year, 96.3 this). As a result, his GB% is up (44.8%) while his HR/FB is down (6.9%).

The change is terrible from a fantasy perspective though. His sinker isn't particularly good, inducing grounders at only a 50% rate and whiffs at a 3% rate. Grounders against him are also hit relatively hard (85mph average exit velocity) because his sinker has too much spin (2,322 RPM this year, 2,337 last) to be a classic bowling ball pitch. It might help him be mediocre at the MLB level, but there's no upside here.

If he harnessed his 4-seamer, Montas could develop into an ace. Its spin (2,405 RPM this year, 2,377 last) borders on elite, giving it significant strikeout upside. His raw velocity is also impressive even if he can't throw as hard as he did last year. The pitch has an 11.5% SwStr% in bizarre usage (42.3% Zone% for a fastball?), suggesting that Montas is using it as a secondary pitch for the moment.

The heat also does a better job setting up his wipeout slider. It's rarely a strike (38.8% Zone%), so Montas wants hitters to chase it as a means of ending PAs. Last year, it did its job admirably (40.6% chase, 26.6% SwStr%). This year, it's slipped (31.8% chase, 18.5% SwStr%). The reason could be choosing sinkers over heaters, diminished velocity, or a combination thereof, but last year's version of Montas was more interesting.

The bottom line is that Montas throws hard and still only has a 15.1% K% this year. His control is better, but his 7.2% BB% is still too high to be a control specialist. Thus, Montas is at a crossroads. He could try to cut the spin on his sinker and be a fourth starter on a big league team. Oakland's infield defense is elite (Matt Chapman already has 18 Defensive Runs Saved, while 1B Matt Olson (six) and SS Marcus Semien (five) are also above average), so he could be a streamer. The best case scenario is Dallas Keuchel.

On the other hand, he could try to harness his power heater and slider. There's a better chance he flames out this way, but the upside is Max Scherzer. I'll take Scherzer over Keuchel any day of the week. Therefore, fantasy owners should root against Montas until he goes back to his power stuff.

 
Verdict: Chump (for now)

Jonathan Loaisiga (SP, NYY) - 18% Owned

Loaisiga is best viewed as a big ball of upside. His 3.12 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 54.5% GB%, and 26.3% K% are all plus, but his 15.8% BB% and 8 2/3 IP across two starts are not what fantasy owners are looking for.

The good news is that he didn't walk anybody in the minors this year. His 25 IP for Double-A Trenton featured a 31.4% K%, 2.9% BB%, and 2.11 xFIP. He allowed a ton of line drives (28.8% LD%) that seem to have inflated both his BABIP (.387) and HR/FB (21.1%), giving him a 4.32 ERA despite the peripherals above.

Before that, he tossed 20 IP at High-A. He again posted plenty of Ks (32.5%) with nary a walk (1.3%) while keeping the ball on the ground (52% GB%). ERA (1.35) and xFIP (1.63) agree that he was really, really good. Combined, this gives us 45 IP of not walking anyone at all vs. 8 2/3 IP of walking everyone. The best guess is that he got the major league jitters and temporarily lost his otherwise excellent control.

He has been throwing his 95.8mph heater for a strike (55.9% Zone%), so he isn't completely hopeless in the control department. His problem is that both of his other pitches are true wipeout offerings. His change is a strike 30.4% of the time, while his curve has a Zone% of 28.8%. The good news is that they're both really good wipeout pitches, posting SwStr% marks of 21.7% and 20.3% respectively. They also get chased (43.8%, 45.2%), so Loaisiga can definitely put somebody away once ahead in the count.

Loaisiga allowed a ton of liners at High-A (26% LD%) and the major leagues (31.8%), but the stat isn't that sticky in samples this small. His BABIP will be atrocious if this is his true talent LD%, but we're at least a season and a half of pitching away from jumping to that conclusion.

A few more strikes should lower Loaisiga's pitch count, helping him pitch deep enough into games to get wins and QS on the best team in baseball. The Yankees will probably be conservative with the 23-year old's innings anyway, but this is the kind of guy you can dream about. There's no need to wake up just yet.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jordan Clarkson3 hours ago

Out At Least A Week
Kyle Kuzma3 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Jamal Murray3 hours ago

Won't Return On Friday Night
Giannis Antetokounmpo3 hours ago

Anticipated To Play Versus Cleveland
Puka Nacua4 hours ago

Shot To Play Week 9
Jordan Love5 hours ago

Tracking To Play In Week 9
Stephen Curry7 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Yves Missi7 hours ago

Expected To Take The Court Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns8 hours ago

Available On Friday
Eric Comrie8 hours ago

Faces Blue Jackets Friday
Daniel Theis8 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Friday
David Savard8 hours ago

Sits Out Practice For Maintenance Purposes
De'Anthony Melton8 hours ago

Unavailable Saturday
Jordan Hawkins8 hours ago

Expected To Play Friday
Alexander Romanov8 hours ago

Ready To Play Friday
Al Horford8 hours ago

Resting Against Charlotte
Evgeni Malkin8 hours ago

Takes Maintenance Day On Friday
Andrew Wiggins8 hours ago

Probable For Saturday's Matchup With Houston
Rose Namajunas8 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
D'Angelo Russell8 hours ago

Will Suit Up Versus Toronto
Devon Levi8 hours ago

Returns To Sabres Crease
Clayton Kershaw8 hours ago

To Undergo Two Surgeries
Anthony Davis8 hours ago

Available Against Toronto
Erin Blanchfield8 hours ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Lowe8 hours ago

Rays Pick Up Club Option On Brandon Lowe
Ryan Hartman8 hours ago

Rejoins Wild Lineup Friday
Zach LaVine8 hours ago

Will Play Against Brooklyn
8 hours ago

Nick Martinez Headed To Free Agency
Erik Cernak8 hours ago

Available On Friday
Marc-Andre Barriault8 hours ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Brent Suter8 hours ago

Inks Extension With Cincinnati
Immanuel Quickley8 hours ago

Out Again On Friday Night
CJ McCollum9 hours ago

Out At Least Two Weeks
9 hours ago

Yankees, Mets Among Teams In Battle For Juan Soto
Anthony Black9 hours ago

Starting Versus Cleveland
Franz Wagner9 hours ago

Cleared For Friday Night
Herbert Jones9 hours ago

To Miss A Significant Amount Of Time With Shoulder Injury
Marc-Andre Barriault9 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Blake Snell9 hours ago

Opts Out Of Deal With San Francisco
Desmond Bane9 hours ago

Won't Face The 76ers
Josh Jacobs9 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Drake Maye10 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Tyler Boyd10 hours ago

Tony Pollard, Tyler Boyd Listed As Questionable
Tyjae Spears10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Calvin Ridley10 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Trevin Giles10 hours ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Noah Fant10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Brian Robinson Jr.10 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
Mike Malott10 hours ago

Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card
Dallas Goedert10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
DK Metcalf10 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 9
Zach Benson11 hours ago

Could Play Next Week
Jani Hakanpaa11 hours ago

And Connor Dewar Sent On Conditioning Stint
Dmitri Voronkov11 hours ago

Ready For Season Debut Friday
Jordan Love11 hours ago

Questionable Vs. Lions
Mathew Barzal11 hours ago

Getting Tests Done For Upper-Body Injury
Vladimir Tarasenko11 hours ago

Ready To Go For Saturday
Mark Stone11 hours ago

Misses Practice Due To Birth Of Child
Puka Nacua12 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Week 9
Will Levis13 hours ago

Questionable For Week 9
David Njoku13 hours ago

Good To Go For Week 9
Bucky Irving13 hours ago

Absent During Friday's Practice
David Njoku13 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
Adam Thielen13 hours ago

Doubtful For Week 9
Jonathon Brooks13 hours ago

Not Expected To Play In Week 9
Tee Higgins13 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Sunday
Tyreek Hill14 hours ago

Expected To Play In Week 9
Tomás Nosek17 hours ago

Tomas Nosek Ready For Panthers Debut On Friday
Leon Draisaitl17 hours ago

Leads Oilers To Victory With Three-Point Effort
Martin Necas17 hours ago

Registers Four Points In Dominant Win
Alex Ovechkin17 hours ago

Bags Three Points In Thursday's Win
17 hours ago

Royals Decline Option On Adam Frazier
Sidney Crosby17 hours ago

Drags Penguins Back On Track
17 hours ago

Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer Headed To Free Agency
William Nylander17 hours ago

Pots Two Goals Versus Seattle
17 hours ago

Milwaukee Declines Option On Wade Miley
NHL17 hours ago

Will Smith Scores First Career Goals
Lucas Giolito17 hours ago

Staying In Boston
Chris Stratton18 hours ago

Hunter Renfroe, Chris Stratton Returning To Kansas City
Jordan Montgomery18 hours ago

Staying In Arizona
1 day ago

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn Headed For Free Agency
Roansy Contreras1 day ago

Claimed By Texas
1 day ago

Alex Kirilloff Announces Retirement
Jorge Soler1 day ago

Traded To Los Angeles
Curtis Lazar1 day ago

Out Indefinitely Following Knee Procedure
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Searching For 1st UFC Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado1 day ago

Drops Down To Light Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Jhonata Diniz1 day ago

Gets Big Step-Up At UFC Edmonton
Derrick Lewis1 day ago

Faces An Unranked Heavyweight At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Ends Layoff At UFC Edmonton
2 days ago

Daniel Hudson Retires After World Series Victory
Freddie Freeman2 days ago

Drives In Two More Runs, Earns World Series MVP Honors
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Comes Up Short at Homestead
William Byron4 days ago

Rallies to Sixth at Homestead
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Tire Issue at Homestead Could Doom Kyle Larson's Championship Hopes
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Charges To A Thrilling Victory At Homestead
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Loses At Homestead On The Final Corner To Tyler Reddick
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Quietly Nabs A Top-5 Finish At Homestead
Khamzat Chimaev5 days ago

Remains Undefeated
Robert Whittaker5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 308
Aleksandar Rakic5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 308
Armen Petrosyan5 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC 308
Shara Magomedov5 days ago

Gets Highlight-Reel Knockout Win At UFC 308
Joey Logano5 days ago

Intentionally Sleepwalked Through Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Advances to Championship 4 as Owner but Not as Driver
Dan Ige5 days ago

Loses Second-Straight Fight At UFC 308
Lerone Murphy5 days ago

Remains Undefeated At UFC 308
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Wins Lackluster Decision Win At UFC 308
Max Holloway5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out For First Time At UFC 308
NASCAR6 days ago

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Earns Best Qualifying Run in Over a Year at Homestead
Zane Smith6 days ago

Expect Zane Smith's Steady Consistency to Continue at Homestead
Ryan Preece6 days ago

Both Ryan Preece and Stewart-Haas Racing Seem Ill-Suited to Intermediates
Michael McDowell6 days ago

Couldn't Overcome Ford's Intermediate Speed Deficit in Homestead Qualifying
Joey Logano6 days ago

Team Likely to Ignore Homestead to Focus on Phoenix
Carson Hocevar6 days ago

Looks to Clinch Rookie of the Year Award
Daniel Hemric6 days ago

Qualifies Ninth for Best Start of the Year
Denny Hamlin6 days ago

Is Strong at Homestead, but Sometimes Struggles in the Clutch
Justin Haley6 days ago

Benefits in Qualifying From Spire Motorsports Speed
Austin Cindric6 days ago

Slowest Ford Regular in Homestead Qualifying
Chris Buescher6 days ago

Lacks Intermediate Track Consistency
Josh Berry6 days ago

Hopes to Stay Alive in Rookie Race at Homestead

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jalen Hurts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 9 Targets and Avoids (2024)

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 9 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do […]


Chase Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Week 9 DraftKings NFL DFS Picks - Main Slate (2024): Jalen Hurts, Chase Brown, Evan Engram, and more

After raiding my daughter's trick-or-treat bag leftovers, I'm battling a Halloween hangover. It's probably a similar feeling to what lots of DFS players were experiencing after last week's Main Slate, as injuries and muted outputs from several popular players were hallmarks of Week 8. That said, we're on to a Week 9 slate that features […]


Puka Nacua - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For Week 9 (Friday Updates): Puka Nacua, DK Metcalf, Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love, more

We have now hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but over halfway for most fantasy football seasons. As has been the norm this season, there are plenty of injuries to top fantasy players at every position. Some remain out for the foreseeable future, some are potentially playing through injury, and some are returning […]


Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL Pick'em Pool Picks (Week 9) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pick'em Contests (2024)

Just two teams will be on a bye during Week 9, leaving a busy slate across the NFL. Injuries will once again impact the slate, as well as some teams making changes at quarterback. Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game and rank their selections for those who play […]


RotoBaller NFL Betting Picks Stock

2024 NFL Week 9 Betting Picks (Premium Content)

All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard. To see ALL of Jamie's bets (and others from RotoBaller experts) then head over to the RotoBaller Discord. You'll find every bet and prop in the #NFL-BETTING-PROPS channel there!   Background My name is Jamie Calandro (@jac3600 on X) and I have […]


AJ Brown - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS: FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Picks for Week 9 - Top Lineup Plays Include Bijan Robinson, A.J. Brown, T.J. Hockenson

Like a backup quarterback patiently holding the clipboard with his hat on backward, I've been summoned into action to help give you some helpful NFL DFS advice for Week 9. My good friend Dennis Clausen, who usually pens this piece, asked me to help him out this week. Don't worry - Dennis is fine, other […]


Zay Flowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 9 Fantasy Football Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Josh Jacobs, Zay Flowers, Tank Bigsby, Rachaad White, Nick Chubb, Bucky Irving

Welcome to Week 9, the midway point of the 2024 fantasy football season. It's arrived quickly for most, but there's still plenty of season left! Injuries to wide receivers have left a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy managers, therefore propping up running backs. However, some running backs may have a rough week while […]


Michael Pittman Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 9 (2024)

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 9 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Week 9 Matchups Analysis

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another start'em and sit'em piece as we look ahead to Week 9! With the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers on bye this week, fantasy managers will have to replace George Pickens, Najee Harris, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle in their lineups. This Week 9 matchups analysis and Start 'Em, Sit 'Em piece will help you make the right lineup decisions […]


Trey Hendrickson Cincinnati Bengals Defense - Fantasy Football DST Streamers, Rankings, Pickups

Top Fantasy Football D/ST Rankings (Weeks 9, 10, 11, 12) - Defense Streamers and Starts

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our fantasy football D/ST streamers and starts for Weeks 9, 10, 11, and 12 -- looking at the next four weeks and identifying the best D/ST matchups. If you like to stream defenses weeks in advance or are looking for a defense to pick up and play this week, you have come to […]


Video: Week 9 Must-Start Running Backs - 2024 Fantasy Football Streamers, Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Analysis

Week 9 of the NFL season is upon us! There are some interesting decisions at the RB position on this slate. Don't miss our notable fantasy football running back starts and sits for Week 9! RotoBaller's Matt Donnelly discusses his top "Must Start" running backs that will have a fantasy football impact in Week 9, […]


CeeDee Lamb - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS and Betting Picks, NFL Injury News

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 9 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 9 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]


Josh Downs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

The King's Week 9 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

RotoBaller senior writer Scott "The King" Engel delivers his Week 9 fantasy football lineup rankings for PPR, half PPR, and standard scoring league formats. He also provides an analysis of the rankings at every skill position. Regular starting options are included to confirm that your must-start players have a good chance of posting winning fantasy […]