RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of Frankie Montas and Jonathan Loaisiga to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball pitching staffs in 2018.
If you're participating in the Rotoballer Challenge on the RT Sports platform, you've probably noticed that they have a list of the most acquired and dropped players for the week on every league's homepage. This past week, all 10 of the listed adds were starting pitchers. Everybody is apparently looking for an extra arm.
With this in mind, let's look at two waiver arms who may be calling your name. Frankie Montas has a sterling ERA and plenty of raw talent, but he appears to be receiving some terrible coaching. Jonathan Loaisiga is the latest Yankee prospect to get the call, and there is a lot to like about the beginning of his career.
Let's see if either is worth a waiver claim.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Frankie Montas (SP, OAK) - 24% Owned
Montas is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA this season, but his underlying 4.32 xFIP in his 33 2/3 IP suggests that he hasn't been as good as he's looked. His minor league career suggests a lot of upside, but his MLB pitch selection suggests that he's being advised to avoid it.
Montas cracked the High Minors in 2015 with Double-A Birmingham, the Chicago White Sox affiliate. He was solid but not spectacular, posting a 2.97 ERA and 3.53 xFIP in 112 IP. He got a few Ks (23.2% K%) while walking too many (10.3% BB%), ultimately succeeding on the back of a 2.6% HR/FB. Birmingham is a pitcher's park (0.860 HR factor from 2014-2016), so Montas probably doesn't deserve all of the credit for that.
He didn't deserve broken ribs either, but he was limited to 15 IP across two levels in 2016 due to the injury. Considering the size of the sample and the fact that he was pitching hurt while on the field, let's throw out the season.
That brings us to 2017, where he opened the season for Triple-A Nashville (Oakland's affiliate). He only pitched 29 1/3 IP before getting a big league callup, but they were enticing! He struck out the world (31.1% K%) without walking too many (5.9% BB%) and keeping the ball on the ground (52.7% GB%). His 5.22 ERA was putrid thanks to a 56.8% strand rate and 22.2% HR/FB, but xFIP argues he deserved a 2.75 mark.
Oakland's brass went with his xFIP, calling him up to the show for 32 IP. His 7.03 ERA was horrendous, and his 5.18 xFIP provided little comfort. His K% (23.7%) was all right, but he walked too many (13.2% BB%) and somehow allowed a .349 BABIP and 26.3% HR/FB. The ground ball tendency he flashed at Triple-A was also MIA (35.5% GB%), making his big league debut very forgettable from a fantasy perspective.
He got a ticket back to Nashville for this season, and transformed into a completely different pitcher. His ERA (4.39) and xFIP (4.48) evened out, both registering as mediocre. His BB% decreased to 7.6%, while his K% fell to 19.2%. His GB% (47.5%) increased, but it's not elite. He went from a promising power arm to a fourth starter?
We don't have the minor league stats to determine what changed, but what he's done since his callup provides a pretty good indication. He's cut back on both his fastball (36.8% to 10.9%) and slider (28% to 21.6%) in favor of a sinker-heavy approach (29.5% to 64.1%), while also losing significant velocity (98.4mph last year, 96.3 this). As a result, his GB% is up (44.8%) while his HR/FB is down (6.9%).
The change is terrible from a fantasy perspective though. His sinker isn't particularly good, inducing grounders at only a 50% rate and whiffs at a 3% rate. Grounders against him are also hit relatively hard (85mph average exit velocity) because his sinker has too much spin (2,322 RPM this year, 2,337 last) to be a classic bowling ball pitch. It might help him be mediocre at the MLB level, but there's no upside here.
If he harnessed his 4-seamer, Montas could develop into an ace. Its spin (2,405 RPM this year, 2,377 last) borders on elite, giving it significant strikeout upside. His raw velocity is also impressive even if he can't throw as hard as he did last year. The pitch has an 11.5% SwStr% in bizarre usage (42.3% Zone% for a fastball?), suggesting that Montas is using it as a secondary pitch for the moment.
The heat also does a better job setting up his wipeout slider. It's rarely a strike (38.8% Zone%), so Montas wants hitters to chase it as a means of ending PAs. Last year, it did its job admirably (40.6% chase, 26.6% SwStr%). This year, it's slipped (31.8% chase, 18.5% SwStr%). The reason could be choosing sinkers over heaters, diminished velocity, or a combination thereof, but last year's version of Montas was more interesting.
The bottom line is that Montas throws hard and still only has a 15.1% K% this year. His control is better, but his 7.2% BB% is still too high to be a control specialist. Thus, Montas is at a crossroads. He could try to cut the spin on his sinker and be a fourth starter on a big league team. Oakland's infield defense is elite (Matt Chapman already has 18 Defensive Runs Saved, while 1B Matt Olson (six) and SS Marcus Semien (five) are also above average), so he could be a streamer. The best case scenario is Dallas Keuchel.
On the other hand, he could try to harness his power heater and slider. There's a better chance he flames out this way, but the upside is Max Scherzer. I'll take Scherzer over Keuchel any day of the week. Therefore, fantasy owners should root against Montas until he goes back to his power stuff.
Verdict: Chump (for now)
Jonathan Loaisiga (SP, NYY) - 18% Owned
Loaisiga is best viewed as a big ball of upside. His 3.12 ERA, 3.43 xFIP, 54.5% GB%, and 26.3% K% are all plus, but his 15.8% BB% and 8 2/3 IP across two starts are not what fantasy owners are looking for.
The good news is that he didn't walk anybody in the minors this year. His 25 IP for Double-A Trenton featured a 31.4% K%, 2.9% BB%, and 2.11 xFIP. He allowed a ton of line drives (28.8% LD%) that seem to have inflated both his BABIP (.387) and HR/FB (21.1%), giving him a 4.32 ERA despite the peripherals above.
Before that, he tossed 20 IP at High-A. He again posted plenty of Ks (32.5%) with nary a walk (1.3%) while keeping the ball on the ground (52% GB%). ERA (1.35) and xFIP (1.63) agree that he was really, really good. Combined, this gives us 45 IP of not walking anyone at all vs. 8 2/3 IP of walking everyone. The best guess is that he got the major league jitters and temporarily lost his otherwise excellent control.
He has been throwing his 95.8mph heater for a strike (55.9% Zone%), so he isn't completely hopeless in the control department. His problem is that both of his other pitches are true wipeout offerings. His change is a strike 30.4% of the time, while his curve has a Zone% of 28.8%. The good news is that they're both really good wipeout pitches, posting SwStr% marks of 21.7% and 20.3% respectively. They also get chased (43.8%, 45.2%), so Loaisiga can definitely put somebody away once ahead in the count.
Loaisiga allowed a ton of liners at High-A (26% LD%) and the major leagues (31.8%), but the stat isn't that sticky in samples this small. His BABIP will be atrocious if this is his true talent LD%, but we're at least a season and a half of pitching away from jumping to that conclusion.
A few more strikes should lower Loaisiga's pitch count, helping him pitch deep enough into games to get wins and QS on the best team in baseball. The Yankees will probably be conservative with the 23-year old's innings anyway, but this is the kind of guy you can dream about. There's no need to wake up just yet.
Verdict: Champ
