RADIO
If David Bote and Jacob Nix had gotten off to the starts they've had in May, they would be nearly universally owned as fantasy owners pounce on the next big thing. However, it's August. The vast majority of fantasy baseball rosters have been abandoned in favor of the real-life pennant chase, hockey, basketball, and that silly game where players try to assault each other for the right to do a stupid dance in the end zone. I think we cover that last one here at RotoBaller.
Anyway, Bote and Nix currently have an ownership rate of six percent combined. Is that the right call, or is this a buying opportunity for the active owner?
Let's take a closer look.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
David Bote (3B, CHC) - 2% Owned
Bote's big league career is off to a nice start, as he's slashing .329/.418/.539 with three homers and three steals (but four CS) over 91 PAs. Many of his hits have been dramatic as well, such as his walk-off grand slam against the Nationals on August 12. Unfortunately, that highlight was the result of his biggest problem in fantasy: he only plays against lefties. He just can't help that much unless another Cub gets injured or you play in an extremely deep league.
A deeper look into his peripherals also suggests that he wouldn't be able to maintain his production if thrust into an everyday role. First, his .400 BABIP isn't sustainable. He has slightly above average wheels (28 ft./sec per Statcast Sprint) and tremendous ground ball exit velocity (94.7mph), but the under is still a safe bet on his .375 BABIP on grounders over a full season. Likewise, nobody runs a .300 BABIP on fly balls, especially if a 23.1% HR/FB is removing the best quarter of them from consideration.
Fantasy owners would be fine with a low average if it came with the elite power that his Statcast metrics suggest, but they're probably just small sample size noise. His 99.5mph average airborne exit velocity is in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton territory, while his 13.8% rate of Brls/BBE is also elite. However, his FB% stands at a minuscule 22.4%. That makes it difficult to project him for a lot of homers no matter how well his flies are hit.
His minor league resume also supports the notion that Bote isn't this good. He first cracked the High Minors in 2016 with 51 PAs split between Double-A and Triple-A, giving us two small samples we can't do anything with. His first real taste of Double-A Tennessee came last season when he slashed .272/.353/.438 with 14 HR and five steals (two CS) over 536 PAs. His plate discipline metrics were pretty solid (9.1% BB%, 18.8% K%), but the combination of a 34.7% FB% and 11.1% HR/FB didn't suggest any real power upside. His 13.5% LD% also made it difficult to put much stock in his .318 BABIP.
His power increased at Triple-A Iowa this year, as he nearly matched his 2017 HR total with 13 in just 263 PAs. Both his FB% (38.4%) and HR/FB (19.7%) increased en route to a .268/.342/.494 line, particularly impressive considering that Iowa is a pitcher's park (0.829 HR factor from 2014-2016) while Tennessee helps power hitters a little (1.124 HR factor). A K% spike (to 24%) suggests that he was consciously swinging harder, but he still took his walks (9.9% BB%).
As noted above, he hasn't carried the FB% increase into his major league performance yet. The 25-year old also posted a 16.9% LD% at Iowa, suggesting that his BABIP has potential downside at the highest level. His profile is definitely interesting, but he needs to play more and increase his FB% to be a true fantasy asset. Watch list him for now, and remember his name for next year if the Cubs find a role for him.
Verdict: Chump
Jacob Nix (SP, SD) - 4% Owned
Nix is the proud owner of a 0.00 ERA over six big league innings against the Phillies, though xFIP wasn't impressed (4.20). Wins could be tough to come by in San Diego no matter how well he pitches, but his repertoire is interesting.
Nix threw a three-pitch mix in his MLB debut: fastball, curve, and change. His heater averaged a solid 94.3mph and induced whiffs at a strong rate (8.8% SwStr%) despite a high Zone% (61.4% chase) against Philadelphia. Its 36.4% chase rate might not be sustainable over a full season, but it at least flashed potential.
Nix's curve was strange. He threw it for a strike much more often than not (57.9% Zone%), and it failed to generate a single swinging strike. It was seldom chased outside of the zone (25% chase rate), so maybe he intends it as a "fastball" with a wrinkle in the zone?
Finally, the change is Nix's put-away pitch. It posted a 25% SwStr% and 37.5% chase rate against the Phillies, more than making up for its low 33.3% Zone%. Unfortunately, Nix's minor league career suggests that he's not a strikeout artist.
Nix first made it to Double-A San Antonio in 2017, where he was torched for a 5.53 ERA despite a reasonable 4.17 xFIP over 27 2/3 IP. His biggest problem was a 51.2% strand rate despite a 0% HR/FB, though his .340 BABIP and 17.3% K% didn't help matters. He also walked too many guys (7.1% BB%) for a guy with no obvious K upside.
Nix fared much better at the level this season, posting a 2.05 ERA and 3.93 xFIP over 52 2/3 IP. His 81.2% strand rate and .250 BABIP against were the opposite of his work the prior season, and splitting the difference between them is probably the right call. His 5.8% HR/FB was also more indicative of his home park (0.683 HR factor) than anything Nix did. Still, he was a better pitcher who improved both his K% (20.5%) and BB% (4.5%). That's not must-roster fantasy upside, but it could be a worthwhile streaming option.
Nix threw six scoreless innings at Triple-A before his MLB debut, so he's on something of a hot streak. San Diego is also a great place for pitchers. Some team in your league should probably roll the dice on the 22-year old's potential, so let's go ahead and give him a Champ tag.
Verdict: Champ
