Rick Lucks analyzes Danny Espinosa to see if he'll continue to have success or regress with his new team.

Last season saw a significant uptick in league-wide home runs, reducing the value of power-only profiles in the fantasy game. No one has conclusively determined why homers were up, but some people are assuming that it will remain the case for 2017.

It might, but I look forward to drafting power at a discount in 2017 thanks to the assumptions of others. I'm especially interested in options at positions that traditionally do not provide fantasy owners with power.

In that vein, let's look at the newest Los Angeles Angel, Danny Espinosa.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

A Deeper Dive - Danny Espinosa

Espinosa's 24 dingers as a SS in 2016 would have attracted much more attention in any season except the last one. When everyone cracks 20 bombs, it is a lot easier to point out Espinosa's .209/.306/.378 triple slash line and 29% K% as serious red flags. Traded to the Angels for virtually nothing, I expect a career year from their new second sacker.

The first reason is simply playing time. Projected as a bench piece in Washington, Espinosa assumes starting duties in Anaheim with nothing particularly noteworthy waiting to take his job. Does Cliff Pennington really strike you as a big league regular? Espinosa also boasts a slick glove, something the Angels want to use to cover up a questionable pitching staff. Benching him would therefore be counterproductive to the team's strategy.

While I can't explain the league-wide power surge, I can explain Espinosa's. He hit more fly balls last season, increasing his FB% from 36.8% in 2015 to 43.1% last year. He also made more authoritative airborne contact, as his IFFB% decreased from 15.2% to 12.1% in the same time frame. His Pull% on flies also increased (from 26.1% to 35%), causing me to trust more in his HR/FB spike (14.1% to 17.1%) than I otherwise would. Assuming everyday playing time, Espinosa should hit 20-25 HR again next year.

He's done that before, so a career year will require improvement in some of the other numbers I described above. Let's start with his batting average, which was dragged down last year by a tiny BABIP (.261) and an insane strikeout rate. Despite his career-long struggle with batting average, Espinosa's career BABIP is .292, with a .299 mark as recently as 2015. The problem last year was his fly balls, which posted a BABIP of just .051 against a career rate of .134. The FB% spike probably prevents him from making it all the way to an overall .290 BABIP again, but a slight increase should be forthcoming.

Lest you're thinking the shift is the cause of Espinosa's struggles, it isn't. He hit .322 against the shift last year thanks in part because he can bunt for a hit. He had eight bunt hits last year, and his speedy shortstop profile suggests that it was not a fluke. Bunting is a hard skill for sluggers to learn, but Espinosa has mastered it.

Espinosa has always struck out too often, but advanced metrics suggest that he should have struck out less often last year. His batting eye actually improved, leading to a career best 33.2% O-Swing%. His O-Contact% cratered, however, falling to an unsightly 50.6%. This number is fluky low even for Espinosa. His SwStr% increased only slightly relative to 2015 (14.1% to 14.9%), meaning that swinging at fewer bad pitches mostly negated the O-Contact% problem. If the latter number regresses while the improved eye remains, a career best K% seems possible.

Don't get me wrong, Espinosa will still strike out too much. Even a K% of 24% would represent a significant improvement over last year's 29% though, boosting his batting average a little in the process. Between the BABIP and K% corrections, he could hit something like .240 next year, only a slight minus relative to the league wide average of .255. That is a worthwhile price to pay for a middle infielder with pop.

Espinosa can still run and the Angels figure to have little behind him in their batting order, so I will take the over on last season's nine steals. If you want to dream, Espinosa has some chance to go 20/20! Even if he doesn't, his power and eventual eligibility at both middle infield slots should make him worth a roster spot in our game.

Verdict: Champ