RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Hicks to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.
It can be very tempting to search your waiver wire using each player's production to date. Most platforms allow you to sort available players based on your area(s) of need, seemingly encouraging you to do exactly this. It's fine in certain situations, but the underlying peripherals may tell a completely different story.
For example, Anthony DeSclafani has interesting surface numbers but terrible peripherals. Aaron Hicks looks like a batting average drag at first glance, but he can probably be expected to hit for a higher one moving forward.
Let's take a closer look at these potential waiver adds.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Anthony DeSclafani (SP, CIN) - 7% Owned
DeSclafani has gone 3-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 4.48 xFIP over four starts (22 IP) this season. Injuries have robbed him of the last two seasons (sprained UCL last year, limited by an oblique strain in 2016), but he was on a few sleeper lists before all of the health issues arose. He's likely looking pretty good on your waiver wire.
Don't take the plunge. The Reds are awful (recent hot stretch notwithstanding), so none of their pitchers are good bets for wins. They also play in an extremely power-friendly ballpark (108 HR factor last year according to FanGraphs), a fact that spells trouble for DeSclafani and his 35.9% GB%. DeSclafani has somehow maintained an elevated strand rate of 82.6% despite a 19.2% HR/FB ratio, so it's safe to say that good fortune has also played a role in his early success.
The worst part of DeSclafani's return has been a dramatically diminished repertoire. He's throwing more 4-seam fastballs (33.3% vs. 23.5% in 2016) at the expense of his sinker (32.3% vs. 26%) and curve (13.1% vs. 6.2%). For some pitchers, this would be a positive change. However, DeSclafani's heater is basically batting practice. Hitters are slashing .444/.545/.833 against it this year, and its career line against (.302/.361/.525) suggests that it's not a small sample size fluke.
Digging deeper, the heater's problem is an average spin rate. It's averaging 2,144 RPM this year, virtually unchanged from its 2,107 RPM in 2016. Strikeout artists such as Max Scherzer have spin rates in excess of 2,400 RPM, while sinker specialists want to be below 2,000 RPM. DeSclafani is in the middle, which means his fastball isn't any good.
DeSclafani's sinker is averaging 1,979 RPM, suggesting that he could be a ground ball guy. However, that mark is higher than it was in 2016 (1,923). The fact that DeSclafani is throwing his straight heater more often may suggest that he's lost confidence in the pitch. His sinker also has a low Zone% for a fastball (45.7% vs. 60.2% for the 4-seam), preventing it from setting up anything successfully.
Speaking of secondary pitches, DeSclafani's haven't looked as sharp as they used to. His slider has been a formidable strikeout pitch over his career (17.1% SwStr%), but it's not generating the whiffs it used to (12.7% this year). Its spin rate, Zone%, and chase rate are all virtually unchanged, so the best guess is that it's easier for hitters to differentiate it from his straight heater than his sinker.
DeSclafani's knucklecurve has gone from a reasonable third pitch (14% SwStr%, 30.9% Zone% career) to something of a joke (4.6% SwStr%, 45.5% Zone%). Its spin rate has tanked, declining from 2,035 RPM in 2016 to 1,609 this year. That's knuckler territory, but it lacks the unpredictable movement that makes knucklers viable. It's a non-factor now.
This repertoire has produced a 19.6% K% and 8.7% BB% on the season, numbers that don't move the fantasy needle at all. Add in a low GB%, hitter-friendly ballpark, and weak supporting cast, and the best fantasy use for DeSclafani is to leave him on waivers and hope that one of your rivals picks him up.
Verdict: Chump
Aaron Hicks (OF, NYY) - 45% Owned
Hicks has been great in OBP leagues, slashing .248/.337/.467 with 11 HR and six steals (one CS) over 250 PAs. His plate discipline has always been strong, and this year is no exception (12% BB%, 19.2% K%). His batting average and power have historically been the knocks against Hicks.
A .248 average isn't great, but his peripherals support something better. Hicks is only hitting .179 on ground balls this year (.218) despite above average exit velocity (86mph on grounders) and foot speed (28.0 ft.sec Statcast Sprint Speed). The shift is hurting him some (.253 in 78 PAs vs. .288 in 82 PAs without it), but his 65.7% Pull% on ground balls suggests that it won't completely kill him. The shift hasn't bothered Hicks at all over his career (.302 in 209 PAs, 55.4% Pull%), but he's a different hitter now.
Hicks's average airborne exit velocity has trended upward in each year of the Statcast Era, starting with 92.3mph in 2015, 92.4mph in 2016, 92.8mph last year, and 94.1mph this year. His rate of Barrels Per Batted Ball Event shows the same trend, going from 3.1% to 4.6% to 7.5% to 9% in that time frame. His current BABIP on fly balls (.138) is significantly above his career mark (.094), but his contact authority is also much better. It seems likely to hold steady going forward.
That said, there is a reason Hicks only has a .270 BABIP for his career. He's allergic to line drives (18.6% career LD%), a fact that his recent improvements at the plate have not mitigated (19% this season). He has also become a fly ball hitter (41.1% FB% this year, 40.3% last year), the batted ball type with the lowest BABIP. He's somewhat prone to pop-ups (10.1% IFFB% this year, 9.2% career), adding another BABIP depressor to his batted ball profile.
Baseball Savant's xStats say that Hicks's K%, exit velocities, and launch angles so far should have yielded a batting average of .261. The calculation does not consider his above average footspeed or his susceptibility to the shift, factors that may cancel themselves out anyway. Something around .260 is likely a good projection for the rest of the 2018 season.
While his 15.9% HR/FB is above his career mark of 11.6%, it's worth noting that he managed a virtually identical number last year (15.8%). His airborne contact quality is better than it used to be, and he also has the advantage of an extremely power-friendly home park. Yankee Stadium increases power output considerably for both lefties (114) and righties (112), both of which are applicable to the switch-hitting Hicks. He has always pulled fly balls (26.1% career, 29% this year), so he figures to take full advantage of his home park.
Hicks plays in a potent lineup and is often allowed to leadoff when Brett Gardner gets a rest day. He's buried otherwise though, making Hicks an ideal asset in daily leagues where you can start him based on his lineup spot. Otherwise, he combines a little power and a little speed with a batting average that shouldn't hurt you. That's pretty good!
Verdict: Champ
