Champ or Chump: Amed Rosario

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the value of Cleveland Indians SS/OF Amed Rosario in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2021. What should we expect moving forward?

With football monopolizing the general media's sports coverage, many fantasy baseball managers begin checking out and thinking more about QBs and RBs than QS and RBI. If you're in the middle of the pack, now could be a good time to make some prudent additions and begin rising up the standings. It's crunch time, folks!

One move that you may wish to consider is adding Amed Rosario, who's .289/.330/.422 triple-slash line with eight homers and 12 steals warrant more than his 49% roster rate on Yahoo!. The 25-year-old hadn't done that much in fantasy before this season, generally swiping about 20 bags with a neutral to plus batting average since he debuted in 2017. His 2020 was a disaster that saw him lose playing time to Andres Gimenez and ultimately shipped to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor trade, but that year was so strange that you shouldn't hold it against him (or anyone else).

Rosario was once one of the top prospects in baseball, ranking second in 2017 per MLB Pipeline, third according to FanGraphs, and first per ESPN's Keith Law. He's still young enough to realize that lofty potential, and several of his peripherals are trending in the right way. Let's talk about him.

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Blazing Speed

We love stolen bases, and Rosario can certainly compile them. His 29.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed ranks in the 98th percentile among qualified players, and he's gone a perfect 12-for-12 on SB attempts on the season. That success rate is important because Rosario hadn't previously eclipsed a 70% success rate in his MLB career, going 7-for-10 (70%) in 2017, 24-for-35 (69%) in 2018, and 19-for-29 (66%) in 2019. He didn't steal any bases last year, and he was caught once. It looks like he's getting better at picking his spots and can focus more on volume in the future.

Rosario's legs are also the key to his batting average. His .270 career BABIP on ground balls is a large part of his career .329 mark despite mediocre exit velocity numbers, and his speed is probably why. Likewise, Rosario's xBA of .272 this season doesn't quite match his actual average of .289, but xBA consistently underrate the importance of a true burner's legs. If anything, his .263 BABIP on grounders this season suggests some average upside despite an overall BABIP of .348.

Rosario also has a great batted ball profile for somebody who relies on speed for value. His 27.4 FB% is a smidge below his career rate of 28.7%, instead emphasizing ground balls that Rosario can beat out for a single. He also has a .405 average in 76 PAs against the shift and a 41.1 Pull% on grounders this season, so infielders cannot move around and deny him base hits.

Improving the Flaws in His Game

Speed and batting average are Rosario's core competencies, but he's also improving his weaknesses. For example, plate discipline has long been one of Rosario's bugaboos. His 20.6 career K% is roughly league average while his 4.5 career BB% is low, but he's besting both marks in 2021 with figures of 19.7 and 5.4, respectively. Better yet, the improvement is backed by career-bests in his 36.5% chase rate and 11.1 SwStr%. To be clear, these numbers are not good but represent a trend in the right direction.

Similarly, Rosario was never seen as much of a power threat and his 90.5 mph average airborne exit velocity and 2.3% rate of Brls/BBE this season do nothing to change that. That said, he is pulling more of his fly balls than he has in the past (20% vs. 15.5% career), making it easier for him to crack the occasional long ball. Rosario's .371 xSLG against an actual mark of .422 suggests that he has been fortunate thus far, but at least he's not a total zero a la Billy Hamilton.

A Useful Fantasy Niche

Rosario is entrenched as the club's two-hole hitter, a role that provides more opportunities for counting stats than most of his teammates receive. He is also eligible at both SS and OF in most formats, giving him positional versatility that makes him easier to carry on your bench in shallower formats. If you're spotting him, be aware that he is particularly effective against LHP with a line of .336/.381/.523 with five homers in 160 PAs.

Rosario's speed is also good enough to roster as your regular MI in 12-team formats and deeper, especially if you're dealing with injuries or underperformance at the position. He might not offer much in terms of plate discipline or power, but he's still a Champ of an addition for most rosters.

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