RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 440
CURRENT ADP: ~542 overall
ANALYSIS: Pinder took clear steps he took to improve his plate discipline leading up to the 2020 season last February, and those improvements showed up in his performance. Although Pinder’s O-Swing rate was up slightly from 2019 at 33.3%, his swing rate at pitches in the shadow zone was a career-low, and his swing rate at pitches in the heart of the zone was a career-high.
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Pinder’s plate discipline developments are significant and appear likely to carry into 2021, making him relatively likely to sustain a Z-Contact rate above 90% and a hard-hit rate above 40%. Only eight qualified hitters achieved both of those marks in 2019, combining to average a .364 xwOBA. Even the worst of those hitters by xwOBA (Lorenzo Cain) posted a solid .330 xwOBA, suggesting that Pinder should be a comfortably above-average hitter in 2021. Playing time isn’t guaranteed for Pinder this season, but without Khris Davis around, there should be some more shuffling of the lineups, and concerns about pitchers' workloads will likely lead to shorter benches, so he should be able to carve out at least a semi-consistent role. Fantasy managers should keep Pinder on their radars as a result, and he’s worth an investment in deeper leagues.
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