RADIO
We are at the end of the first college football season with the expanded playoffs. The regular season still gave us a few games we weren't used to seeing, but Michigan beating Ohio State meant nothing for the Buckeyes. They're still here. That would have been a "playoff" game during the regular season in past seasons.
Do we have the two best teams in the championship? Forget the seeding for a minute -- we all know they were out of whack, to begin with -- are these the two best teams or just the two teams who managed to avoid major injury? Georgia beat Texas -- a team who tested Ohio State -- twice, but lost starting quarterback Carson Beck before the playoff began thanks to the conference championship money grab.
These may not be the two best teams, but they're close. Call me crazy, but the playoff beginning on campus sites helped propel these two teams here. No one who watched those first-round games will soon forget the atmosphere in those games. It helped a lot more than the teams sitting on the couch watching from home, that's for sure!
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CFP National Championship Betting Picks
I'll make the spread pick here as I did for every other game this year. I'll also leave you a couple of prop bets that look good right now.
(7) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State (-9.5)
Betting Confidence Factor: 4
Surprise, surprise. No one in Vegas is giving the Irish much of a chance. This was predicted as soon as the brackets were released. I think Ohio State wins, but the Irish are going to make them work for it. I don't think the Irish get covered in this one.
Jeremiyah Love over 43.5 rushing yards (-130)
These aren't great odds, but if your book allows you to up it for better odds, do it. Ohio State allowed 172 on the ground to Michigan and 152 to Texas, but they shut down Oregon and Texas. Love is better than any back Oregon or Texas has.
He may not go over 100 yards, but I would feel comfortable with pushing this up to 60 if the odds are favorable enough. You should be getting plus odds if you push it up that high.
TreVeyon Henderson over 19.5 rushing yards (-114)
Henderson is very active in the passing game, hauling in 10 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown in the last four games. He went over this mark in all four of those games and cleared that mark in seven of the last eight games.
Will Howard over 249.5 passing yards (-121)
Howard has cleared that mark in all three playoff games. The Buckeyes are leaning on the passing game more in the playoffs, which is why I like Howard and Henderson's passing props. The WR production is too spread out for me to want to mess with that.
College Football DFS Captain Plays
Will Howard, QB, Ohio State ($17.7K)
Here's how CFP quarterbacks Will Howard and Riley Leonard stacked up this season in stats ?
Who will the bigger game Monday night? pic.twitter.com/jKOKevzKgm
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) January 18, 2025
It has been a good three playoff games for Howard. He has 919 passing yards in those three games with six touchdowns to two interceptions. That graphic doesn't tell the whole story of Riley Leonard, but Howard can and will win this game with his arm if he needs to. I'm not sure Leonard can. Yes, Kansas State benched him for Avery Johnson last year. Weird, huh?
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame ($13.5K)
Still don’t understand how Jeremiyah Love did this.
— Pete Sampson (@PeteSampson_) January 10, 2025
Love is a tough runner who is hard to bring down. Jordan James and Quintrevion Wisner are good backs, but they aren't tough runners like Love or Michigan's Kalel Mullings -- the last two backs to have success against the Ohio State defense.
Love isn't going to have a huge game here, but I could see Notre Dame keep pounding away with him. That worked with Mullings and Michigan. Mullings carried the ball 32 times but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Expect something similar from Love with a touchdown as the cherry on top.
Other Captains: TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka, Jaden Greathouse
College Football DFS Flex Plays
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State ($10.8K)
I don't plan on paying down at the captain slot tonight because the playmakers in both of these offenses are clearly defined. The chances of a little-known player having a massive game in this one are slim. That's going to make it hard to get to Smith for the price.
Texas did everything it could to take the freshman out of the game. That's the only thing Texas succeeded at the entire game. Smith was held to one catch for three yards after nuking the first two rounds of the playoff.
Smith is a bit risky for me at the price for a captain play, but I can get behind him here. Ohio State is going to try to get him involved in the offense. Ohio State is going to need him to win this game. Possession receivers won't have the success against Notre Dame that they did against Texas.
TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State ($8.6K)
I touched on Henderson's receiving prowess in the betting section. That's why I love him as a flex play and will likely run him as a captain at least once. The floor is high for Henderson even if Quinshon Judkins gets more carries again.
We saw Penn State have a lot of success with a two-headed running back attack in the semifinal. Expect Ohio State to do the same thing. The difference is that both of Ohio State's backs are better.
This timeshare in the Ohio State backfield is annoying for DFS purposes, but Ryan Day has used both backs liberally on the ground. Henderson's work in the passing game makes him a much better DFS option.
Jordan Faison, WR, Notre Dame ($6.4K)
Leonard leaned heavily on Faison early in the playoffs, but Jaden Greathouse was the guy who carried the Irish against Penn State. I'm back on the possession receiver in this game. Ohio State isn't going to let a receiver get behind them, especially if Leonard doesn't have the arm to get it there.
Other Flex Options: Riley Leonard, Quinshon Judkins, Emeka Egbuka
College Football DFS Value Plays
Mitch Jeter, K, Notre Dame ($4.4K)
If you expect this to be a lower-scoring game (as I do), it makes sense to use at least one kicker. Jeter has righted the ship after a rough start. He has made five straight field goals in the playoffs, all of them from over 40 yards. He also made all 53 extra-point attempts this year.
Jaden Greathouse, WR, Notre Dame ($3.8K)
Jaden Greathouse was WIDE OPEN as Notre Dame scores on a 54-yard touchdown ?pic.twitter.com/bYRix9bego
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) January 10, 2025
Before the Orange Bowl, Greathouse had six receptions for 49 yards in the past five games combined. He was wide open because the corner fell down. What are the chances of that happening again? How confident are you in it happening again?
Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State ($3.2K)
Tate is often the forgotten man in the WR room, but Will Howard sure knows who he is. Tate had seven receptions for 87 yards in the Cotton Bowl with Smith locked down by Texas. Tate is a great fall-back option but only caught two passes in the first two playoff games combined when Smith went nuts. Don't play the two together.
Other Value Plays: Jayden Fielding, Beaux Collins
Enjoy the National Championship!
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