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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Carolina Panthers as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions—quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end—and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
Bryce Young's rookie season was a lost cause, and it wasn't entirely his fault. His offensive line was terrible, his pass-catchers may have been worse, and worst of all was his coaching, evidenced by his head coach being fired midway through the season. The organization has done its best to alleviate many of those concerns by hiring Dave Canales, who helped revitalize the careers of Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. They've added two high-priced starters on the offensive line and acquired Diontae Johnson. Fantasy managers should be optimistic about this offense being very much improved, but there's a wide range of outcomes between where they were last year and even just an average offense.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our Premium account. Our Premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our Premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
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Quarterback
Bryce Young: QB27, ADP 166
Young was absolutely brutal as a rookie last season. Now, there were a ton of reasons for that. It wasn't all his fault, but he's also not the first quarterback in a bad situation. His was arguably worse than most, but so was the performance. Since 2000, there have been 51 rookie quarterbacks who have thrown at least 300 passes in their first season. Young was 47th in touchdown rate, 33rd in quarterback rating, 50th in sack rate, 45th in yards per attempt, 41st in yards per game, and 44th in fantasy points per game. That's not good, and while he certainly deserves some of the blame, it shouldn't be all put on his shoulders.
In his first season, his head coach was fired midway through the season. His No. 1 receiver was the 33-year-old Adam Thielen. From 2019-2022, Thielen averaged just 50.6 yards per game, which equates to 861 yards over 17 games. Thielen's game had fallen off the past few seasons. His No. 2 target was supposed to be Jonathan Mingo, but he was a massive bust in year one. D.J. Chark was also one of the pass-catchers, but from 2020-2022, his per-game averages extrapolated to just 55 catches and 827 yards over 17 games. Surprisingly, it gets even worse than losing your coach and having no good pass-catchers. His offensive line was graded as the 29th-best unit, according to PFF. Young was under pressure on 24.2% of his dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. To summarize, bad coaching, pass-catchers, and offensive line.
Quite frankly, his rookie season was comparable to Trevor Lawrence's. Not that Young will follow the same path, but Lawrence finished as the QB12 his second season with a new coaching staff, a revamped group of pass-catchers, and a healthier offensive line. This offseason, Carolina accomplished all three of those for Young. They hired Dave Canales, the former offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers. Before that, he had been the quarterback coach for the Seattle Seahawks. Last year, under Canales, Mayfield set career highs in yards, touchdowns, and completion percentage. In 2022, with Canales as Geno Smith's quarterback coach, Smith had a breakout season throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns on a league-leading 69.8% completion percentage.
Just some notable finishes in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt*:
Geno Smith's career before Seahawks: 4.65
2022 with Dave Canales: 6.54Baker Mayfield 2022: 4.83
2023 with Dave Canales: 6.47Bryce Young 2023: 3.68
2024 with Dave Canales: ???Bryce Young = 🚀@FantasyPtsData
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) June 2, 2024
The team also traded for Diontae Johnson, a true No. 1 receiver. They also drafted Xavier Legette in the first round, Jonathon Brooks in the second round, and Ja'Tavion Sanders in the fourth round. That's much more firepower than Young had to work with last season. They also signed Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, two of the best free-agent guards on the market this past season. Together, those two players received $150 million with $89 million guaranteed. Young will now enter his second season with one of the best up-and-coming offensive coaches in the league, a much-improved offensive line, and a group of pass-catchers. He'll at least stand a chance.
None of this will ensure Young's fantasy relevance. These upgrades will likely pay more dividends to the skilled players than they will for Young, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't expect considerable growth in his second season. We need to be cognizant that the transition from where he was as a fantasy quarterback last season to where he needs to get to be fantasy-relevant is massive. Last year, he averaged just 10.8 PPG. To get to QB20, he'd have to increase his PPG average by six. That's an extra 50 yards and one touchdown per game or 100 yards and 0.5 more touchdowns per game. That's to get to QB20. His price, at QB27, isn't very high, and it takes into account the improved environment he'll be operating in this season, but it's still a way away from Young being someone fantasy managers are consistently putting into their lineups.
Verdict: Fair Price on Bryce Young
Running Back
Jonathon Brooks: RB28, ADP 88
Chuba Hubbard: RB49, ADP 155
Miles Sanders: RB75, ADP 247
There are plenty of reasons to be excited about Carolina's backfield. First and foremost, the admission fee is reasonable. The Panthers' offensive line should also be much improved. They already have a quality tackle duo with Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton, but with the additions of Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, Carolina should have quality starters across their entire line. They added Austin Corbett in free agency to replace former center Bradley Bozeman. Head coach Dave Canales, in his lone year as a play-caller, utilized a very heavy one-back approach.
Hard to not get excited for Brooks after Dave Canales just wrapped up a season with the Bucs in which Rachaad White ranked amongst running backs:
* 6th in targets (70)
* 4th in receptions (64)
* 1st in routes (451)
* 3rd in reYDs (549) https://t.co/gQWJNYP5wZ— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) May 6, 2024
Brooks is the most exciting player in this backfield. Hubbard is a former fourth-round pick from 2021; since then, he's been a middling player. He received 197 touches as a rookie and finished with just 786 scrimmage yards. He had a 3.6-yard per-carry average and a 4.0-yard per-touch average. He was just a day-three rookie, so he deserved a second chance. He got that last season and still left a lot to be desired. Among 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, Hubbard ranked 36th in yards per carry, 28th in rush success rate, 27th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in attempts per broken tackle. According to PlayerProfiler, which uses a different set of qualifiers, Hubbard was 32nd in yards per reception, 33rd in yards per route run, 49th in yards per touch, 42nd in yards created per touch, 35th in juke rate, and 33rd in breakaway run rate.
Hubbard was Carolina's No. 2 running back through the first three weeks, but from Weeks 4-17, when he became the primary ball carrier, he averaged 10.5 half-PPR PPG. During those 13 weeks, Hubbard had seven weeks where he finished as a top-24 running back or better. That doesn't include an eighth week when he was the RB25 for that week. Given his current ADP, everyone would widely accept that kind of performance. However, from Weeks 4-17, Hubbard averaged 17.8 touches per game, 12th among running backs. Given his lackluster efficiency, it's highly unlikely those touch totals carry over to 2024.
Brooks waited his turn at Texas behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson and finally got his chance to shine this past season. He did just that. Unfortunately for Brooks and fantasy managers, he suffered a torn ACL on November 11th, 2023. While that injury isn't expected to cause him to miss any time, it will negatively impact his offseason involvement, which, as a rookie, is a big deal. That said, there's little doubt that Brooks is the most talented running back on Carolina's roster, and most fantasy managers believe it's only a matter of time before he takes over the backfield. When he got his chance in Texas, he did one heck of a job impersonating Robinson, as you can see below.
Jonathon Brooks (2023) vs. Bijan Robinson (2022)
This was a LOT closer than I expected it to be 👀 pic.twitter.com/4GQaRZuNhG
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) February 18, 2024
However, Brooks's inability to participate in the offseason program in the manner he and Dave Canales would like could leave the door open for Hubbard to maintain his leadback role in the early portion of the season. Based on his current ADP, that likelihood isn't considered enough. Sanders was a big free agent signing for Carolina in 2023, but he quickly fell out of favor with not one but two different head coaches. It's hard to know where Sanders fits into this backfield with the new coaching staff.
If Carolina decided to move on from Sanders, it would take on a $7.5 million dead cap hit this season and $2.9 for 2025. It could try to trade him, possibly to Dallas, but given how he played last season, trading him and his contract could be difficult. The most likely outcome is Sanders staying in Carolina for the 2024 season, and he is a bigger nuisance than most running backs in the third spot on the depth chart.
Brooks has top-20 upside if he gets healthy and gets a Rachaad White-lite type of role, and his current ADP bakes in some risk given the time it's likely to take for Brooks to get there. However, it's also certainly possible that this backfield stays a 40/40/10 split between Brooks, Hubbard, and Sanders. With Carolina unlikely to play for a playoff spot, the coaching staff could play it safe with Brooks, who is overcoming a torn ACL. That makes Hubbard an easy buy, given his cheap admission cost, but Brooks's price tag is a little tougher to swallow. Sanders is a player fantasy managers can largely ignore this season.
Verdict: Fair Price on Jonathon Brooks, but be cautious. Buy Chuba Hubbard, Sell Miles Sanders
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: WR38, ADP 78
Adam Thielen: WR64, ADP 151
Xavier Legette: WR69, ADP 163
Jonathan Mingo: WR96, ADP 274
Despite Carolina hiring Dave Canales and Young's draft status as the former first-round pick, fantasy managers don't seem to be buying into the team's passing game. However, Thielen finished as the WR25 last year with an 11.1 half-PPR PPG average. This is despite Young being a rookie, Thielen being 33, and the team firing its head coach midway through the season. If Thielen could finish as the WR25 in that environment, why can't Johnson repeat the feat in a far more fantasy-friendly situation? Johnson has only gone over 1,000 yards once in his five-year career, but he's long been held back by poor quarterback play and poor coaching. That doesn't change that Johnson is a terrific receiver capable of separating at all three levels.
Johnson has been a favorite of Reception Perception for years, and you can read his 2023 profile here. Due to this size, he is sometimes viewed as a slot receiver, but that isn't the case. The Steelers have used him as their X-receiver for most of his career until this past year when George Pickens emerged as a capable alternative. Johnson can win from any position, at any level, on any route. Here is what Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had to say about him:
"Now, the Panthers are about to welcome one of the NFL’s best separators. Diontae Johnson’s success rates from 2023 were just further confirmation of that fact. With a 75.2% score in 2023, Johnson has hit or cleared 75% success rate vs. man coverage in all five of his NFL seasons. He’s been a top-two finisher multiple seasons in success rate vs. zone coverage and turned in another sterling mark last year. His 78.3% success rate vs. press coverage was the second-best mark of his career. This player remains at the top of the league in terms of getting open. As you can see from his route charts, Johnson gets open at all three field levels, clearing the NFL average success rate on every pattern."
Based on Carolina's depth chart, Johnson will operate as Carolina's alpha receiver. He's their best receiver and one of the league's best target-earning receivers. This past season, he had a 23.5% target share in an injury-plagued season. Despite not being 100%, he still had the 23rd-highest target share in the league. In 2022, his target share was 27.0% (13th-highest); in 2021, it was 28.5% (fourth-highest).
Last year, despite catching passes from Kenny Pickett, competing with another potential No. 1 target in Pickens, and having his offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) fired for incompetence, Johnson still finished as the WR41 with a 9.2 half-PPR PPG average. His expected average was 10.3 PPG, WR32. His entire environment has improved, and his positional ranking is just WR38. Considering Johnson’s talent level, he’s an easy buy this offseason at his current price.
While Thielen was a solid fantasy option last year, he still left much to be desired. Thielen finished 46th among receivers in yards per route run (1.66), 61st in yards per target (7.4), and 93rd in yards per reception (9.8). He offered virtually nothing after the catch and had an average depth of target of just 7.5, 89th.
Thielen ran most of his routes from the slot, something that should carry over to 2024. That could continue to give him (very) low-level PPR value, but the ceiling and upside are virtually non-existent, especially with Johnson in the fold. Fantasy managers are better off aiming higher and throwing a dart at someone with more of a ceiling, such as teammate Xavier Legette.
There are some red flags in Legette’s prospect profile, primarily the fact that he is a fifth-year collegiate player who did next to nothing in his first four seasons. However, that final season was insanely good, and we can’t possibly ignore that. Legette finished with 71 receptions, 1,255 yards, and seven touchdowns on 97 targets. His 3.15-yard-per-route run average ranked eighth in the country among receivers with at least 85 targets.
We can’t be too quick to write off Young after his rookie season, but if Canales can tap into his No. 1 overall pick pedigree, Carolina could have a second pass-catcher emerge. Unfortunately, Thielen could stay involved just enough to make that difficult, but if a player can accomplish that, it’s Legette. He’s worth a few dart throws.
Mingo can be ignored. He’s buried on the depth chart behind Legette, Thielen, and Johnson. He’s also coming off a terrible rookie season. While there are reasons to be optimistic about Young, we’re still likely talking about a questionable passing attack. Even if Mingo became the locked-in No. 3 target-earner, this offense wouldn’t be strong enough to support three relevant pass-catchers.
Verdict: Buy Diontae Johnson, Sell Adam Thielen, Buy Xavier Legette, Sell Jonathan Mingo
Tight Ends
Ja'Tavion Sanders: TE29, ADP 217
In his second season, Sanders finished with 72 targets and 54 receptions. He had the sixth-most targets and sixth-most receptions among tight ends in 2022. Sanders also finished with 613 receiving yards, the sixth most in the country for tight ends. He had an impressive 17.8% target share and finished as Texas’ second-leading receiver in targets, receptions, and touchdowns to only Xavier Worthy, another second-round draft prospect.
Sanders had 19.7% of Texas' passing yards and averaged 1.52 yards per team pass attempt. Both numbers are excellent. It is impressive that he could do this as a sophomore in his first season with regular playing time. Out of 116 tight ends with at least 25 targets in the 2022 season, Sanders finished 18th with a PFF receiving grade of 76.1. He also finished 20th in yards per route run with an average of 1.76 and averaged 5.3 yards after the catch per reception, which was 57th.
This past year, Sanders had 67 targets and 45 receptions. His target share dipped to 14.3% with the addition of Adonai Mitchell. Sanders finished with the sixth-most targets and ninth-most receptions among tight ends in 2023. He finished with 682 yards, finishing ninth in the country. This past season, Sanders had 17.0% of his team's passing yards and averaged 1.45 yards per team pass attempt. This past season, out of 106 tight ends with at least 25 targets, Sanders finished 13th with a PFF receiving grade of 79.0. He also finished 17th in yards per route run, averaging 1.86. Sanders was 13th in yards after the catch per reception at 7.7 and was 13th in yards per reception at 15.2. He was once again one of the very best tight ends in the country.
Despite the back-to-back seasons of strong production, Sanders fell to the fourth round but was the first pick. While he has the college production we're looking for, his athletic profile is a bit underwhelming. He posted a 5.61 RAS (relative athletic score) with a 4.69 forty-time. That number isn't terrible, but considering he weighed in at just 245, ideally, he would've been a bit faster. Athleticism at the tight end position for fantasy football is huge. He was an early declare, which is a positive.
Historically, tight ends have always needed a year, sometimes two, before they make an impact in the NFL. That's changed a bit recently, but only with the elite-level prospects. Sanders' fourth-round draft capital indicates he's not viewed in that manner. The Panthers' depth chart at tight end is significantly lacking, which could lead to some early playing time, but that doesn't always translate to on-the-field production.
Carolina has an ambiguous group of pass-catchers behind Johnson, which gives Sanders some appeal. As does his cheap cost of admission. He's worth a few dart throws, but he's unlikely to be more than a mid-to-backend TE2 in the best scenario. The team has added enough pass-catchers this offseason, so it's unlikely Sanders will be able to carve out a big enough piece of the pie to become fantasy-relevant.
Verdict: Take Some Dart Throws on Ja'Tavion Sanders, but don't expect much
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