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Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts next spring
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues next spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with some reported interest in a free agent and an actual trade.
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(Potentially) Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Cardinals Reportedly “In Play” For Carlos Rodon
The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly “in play” for free agent starting pitcher Carlos Rodon, according to a tweet from NJ.com’s Brenan Kuty on Tuesday.
Joining the Cardinals can do wonders for a starter’s fantasy upside. It happened last year with Jordan Montgomery, as the veteran thrived with the National League Central club to the tune of a 3.11 ERA and a 3.08 FIP in 63.2 innings down the stretch.
Rodon, speculatively speaking, would be an exciting fit from a fantasy standpoint in St. Louis. He’s a different pitcher from Montgomery in the sense that he doesn’t generate as many grounders or as much weak contact, but pairing St. Louis’ elite fielders with his elite bat-missing ability is an enticing potential combo.
And it wouldn’t just be the Cardinals’ fielders. Busch Stadium certainly wouldn’t hurt either.
Rodon allowed the lowest home runs-per-nine-inning rate of his career in 2022 pitching in spacious Oracle Park with a 0.61 metric. He gave up 12 total home runs, only five of which were at home. If he had played all of his games at Oracle Park, his expected home runs allowed total would still be 12. If it was at Busch Stadium? It would’ve been seven.
That’s significant for a pitcher who has been anywhere from decidedly above average to great in the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler have a higher fWAR among starters with at least 200 innings. That might not be as fantasy-relevant, but it speaks to just how good Rodon has been.
What is fantasy-relevant, however, are the hurler’s 27 pitcher wins during the same span. Among starters with at least 200 total innings from 2021 to 2022, only five have more wins than Rodon. And that’s all without mentioning a 2.67 ERA and a 2.42 FIP during that span. In fact, the former Chicago and San Francisco ace is one of five starters – minimum 130 innings in each season – to finish with an ERA below 3.00 in each of the last two years. The others? Burnes, Wheeler, Scherzer and Julio Urias.
It is worth noting that per Kuty’s tweet, the New York Yankees are reportedly “Carlos Rodon’s preferred destination.” Kuty tweeted on Tuesday:
“FWIW, I’m told the Yankees are Carlos Rodon’s preferred destination, but that the Twins and the Cardinals are believed to be seriously in play as of this afternoon.”
And while it remains to be seen where Rodon will sign, it’s hard to ignore the hypothetical fantasy potential in St. Louis with the Cardinals.
Buying For Fantasy Baseball
The Brooks Raley Trade
This one is purely for fantasy managers in saves+holds leagues, but Brooks Raley’s trade from the Tampa Bay Rays to the New York Mets has more significant fantasy implications than most offseason reliever trades.
First and foremost, he’ll head to a Mets bullpen, that while totally set in the ninth-inning with Edwin Diaz, is totally unset after that.
New York’s top-five relievers in terms of fWAR after Diaz are no longer with the organization. Of course, many of them are free agents, which doesn’t completely rule out reunions later in the winter, speculatively speaking. But for now, Raley looks like the top setup and high-leverage option after Diaz.
And while 18 teams finished with more holds than the Mets last year, who had 76 as a club, top hold options from last season in Adam Ottavino (18), Seth Lugo (16), Joely Rodriguez (nine), Trevor May (six), and Chasen Shreve (four) are no longer on the 40-man roster. Drew Smith (14) and Diaz (four) are the only holdover relievers with more than one hold for the National League East club last season.
In part because of that and in part because of his effectiveness – more on that in a bit – Raley seems set to walk into a high-leverage role as the top reliever in Buck Showalter’s bullpen who doesn’t have the name “Diaz” on the back of his jersey. That should yield plenty in the way of holds for the veteran who could easily double or triple his holds total from 2022 (six) as things stand right now. Showalter also utilized Diaz ahead of the ninth inning on occasion last season. Granted it wasn’t a gargantuan sample size, but the All-Star closer did log four holds in 2022. That in part helped relievers like Ottavino and Lugo log three saves apiece.
Given the state of the Mets’ bullpen, it’s possible Raley could inherit most or all the non-Diaz save chances in 2023 for the Mets. That and the potential for significant hold stats positions Raley as a must-draft in saves+holds leagues and one of the premier fantasy closer handcuffs.
And that’s all without mentioning his excellent effectiveness this past season. Throwing his slider more often than any other offering, Raley finished the year with a 2.68 ERA and a 2.74 FIP in 53.2 innings for the Rays. Elsewhere, the 34-year-old finished in the 92nd percentile or better league-wide in chase rate, hard-hit rate, xSLG, and barrel rate. His percentile rankings in terms of xwOBA, K%, and xBA all finished in the 80s.
It also doesn’t hurt that he logged six saves in the process.
In closing, it is worth noting that since the trade, the National League East club has signed David Robertson to a one-year deal. But if Raley is anywhere near as effective as he was last season, he should have no trouble operating as the top reliever in the Mets bullpen outside of Diaz.
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