Can You Trust Travis Etienne in 2024? Fantasy Football Outlook

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne missed the entire first year of his NFL career after suffering a Lisfranc injury in the 2021 preseason. However, ever since he began getting regular-season action in 2022, he has not looked back. In PPR formats, Etienne was the RB17 in 2022 and the RB3 last year.

On the other hand, Etienne had a lot of touches last year but could not always convert them into yardage. His efficiency metrics were mediocre, and the back half of Etienne's 2023 season was also less impressive than the front half.

After all of this, can we trust Etienne to be an elite fantasy option in 2024? Let's dive right in.

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Travis Etienne's 2023 Regular-Season Recap

Etienne began 2023 coming off of a solid 2022 season, and he quickly reached a new gear. The young tailback surpassed 100 total yards in four of the first eight weeks, and he also scored eight touchdowns during that span. From Week 5 through Week 8, Etienne was a top-5 running back each week in PPR formats.

After the team's bye week in Week 9, however, Etienne slowed down significantly. He reached the 100-yard mark just once in his final nine games, and that was also his only week during that stretch where he finished as a top-10 RB. Moreover, Etienne had only two outings with 20 or more opportunities after having six such games before the team's bye.

While Etienne did finish as the league's RB3 overall, the fact he played all 17 games elevates that a bit. Etienne finished as the RB7 on a per-game basis with 16.6 PPR points per game. His 1,008 rushing yards ranked 11th, and his 476 receiving yards marked the fifth-highest total among running backs. Etienne also found the end zone frequently, as he scored 12 total touchdowns. 

Already a multi-TD game for Travis Etienne! @swaggy_t1

📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/B4mQvLOt8O pic.twitter.com/q4tHW4U9pP

— NFL (@NFL) October 15, 2023

Etienne's productivity was built on an impressive workload. He had 267 carries and 73 targets on the year, giving him an average of 20.0 opportunities per game. Among his 325 touches, 42 were in the red zone, including eight on the goal line. His snap share (74.3 percent) and opportunity share (75.7 percent) were both the sixth-best figures at his position. He averaged 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity, placing him 25th among RBs.

Can Travis Etienne Improve His Efficiency?

Etienne's fantasy scoring efficiency was heavily buoyed by his touchdown totals and receiving production. His rushing numbers were far from stellar. Etienne mustered just 3.6 true yards per carry, ranking 55th among qualifying RBs. He also had a dismal EPA of -174.9 for the season and he led the league with 68 stuffed runs.

Texans stuff the Jags at the goal line with one second left in the half!

📺: #JAXvsHOU on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/1dOevJjoZZ pic.twitter.com/XA4DfJzUZ1

— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2023

The 2022 season was kinder to Etienne in such areas. For example, he averaged 4.6 true yards per carry that year. A major reason for the drop-off was the decline in run-blocking quality from the Jacksonville offensive line. Etienne had a run-blocking rating of 72.1 in 2022, 17th among qualifying RBs. In 2023, that fell to 23.3, which ranked 44th.

The only major addition the Jaguars made to their offensive line this offseason was veteran center Mitch Morse. Morse is primarily known for his pass blocking; he will replace Luke Fortner, who struggled as a pass-blocker last year, in the starting lineup. However, the run blocking as a unit needs to improve, and Jacksonville drafted just one offensive lineman (fourth-round offensive tackle Javon Foster) this past April.

The decline in production after the bye week last year is also concerning. Jacksonville's other two running backs, D'Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby, combined for 20 snaps in just one of eight games before the bye. They accomplished that feat seven times in nine chances after the bye. Neither Johnson nor Bigsby was successful running the ball last year, either, speaking to the struggles of the team up front. Still, Etienne will need to regain the 80-percent snap shares he was getting early last year to provide the production fantasy managers expect of him.

Can You Trust Travis Etienne in 2024 Fantasy Football?

If Etienne can regain the form he was in for the first eight weeks of last year, he will be unstoppable in 2024. He was the league's RB2 in PPR formats during that span, behind just Christian McCaffrey. The million-dollar question is if he can pull that off. To do so, he will have to overcome run blocking that will probably be middling at best. Alternatively, he could compensate with great receiving production, which he has been capable of doing.

LAWRENCE TO ETIENNE ON A 56-YARD TD.

📺: #JAXvsPIT on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/LXcyZZEywR

— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023

Etienne's ADP on Sleeper has been as the RB8. This suggests fantasy managers have some degree of confidence that he can bounce back from his relatively disappointing closing stretch last year. With quarterback Trevor Lawrence now fully healthy after dealing with myriad injuries last December, the offense could be firing on all cylinders again, to Etienne's benefit.

However, managers want to know if they can trust Etienne, and frankly, they should not have a ton of confidence given the premium draft slot that they would need to use to get him. The blocking difficulties that led to his decline last year should still exist, and Johnson and Bigsby remain in the backfield. Neither of those two will realistically challenge Etienne for the role as lead back. Still, any decrease at the margins of Etienne's volume would have consequences, as his outlook is fairly dependent on him being among the league leaders in opportunities again.

Etienne would be far more appealing outside of the top-10 RBs this year. Either Derrick Henry or Josh Jacobs, both of whom are joining new teams this season, would be a preferable option as a low-end RB1. While Etienne's upside is clear, the concerns surrounding his outlook are valid.

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