Cam Akers - League Winner or Fool's Gold?

Pierre Camus evaluates Los Angeles Rams rookie running back Cam Akers' fantasy football value ahead of the fantasy playoffs for 2020 to give a realistic projection ahead of Week 13.

Rams running back Cam Akers has been highly-touted on many a waiver wire column heading into Week 13 following his season-high 84-yard rushing effort versus San Francisco and second consecutive week with a touchdown. For some fantasy analysts, this author included, it is a ray of hope that he may finally be blossoming into the fantasy football behemoth we had been predicting for months. This is the very reason it was advisable to stash him weeks ago when he finally re-entered the gameplan for his offense.

As tempting as it is to declare a rookie running back has "broken out" after one good, not spectacular game, prudence is also advisable. Emptying the proverbial wallet of FAB for a player who doesn't pan out could come back to haunt you as it restricts your streaming or emergency pickup options for the remainder of the season. On the other hand, Akers has the talent and maybe, finally, the opportunity to become that coveted league-winning waiver wire add just ahead of the fantasy playoffs.

We must decide, therefore, if those who claim Akers are about to strike gold or be left with a bag of rocks.

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The Grind Is Real

Those who made it a point to draft Akers, typically with a fourth or fifth-round pick based on his ADP of 59 overall (RB 24), have been waiting impatiently to see him take the field on even a semi-regular basis. The season opener was promising with 14 carries albeit for a mere 39 yards, yet Malcolm Brown performed his now-annual ritual of tearing up the field in Week 1 before ultimately being relegated to insignificance. The veteran took 18 carries for 79 yards and two touchdowns and fooled many into wasting FAB for him early in the season.

The next week, it was Darrell Henderson's turn to lead the way with 12 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown while Brown ran 11 times for 47 yards. Akers would touch the ball three times that day. To add injury to insult, Akers suffered a separation in his rib cartilage and would miss the next two games.

Akers re-emerged in Week 5 with 61 yards on nine rush attempts while Henderson was ineffective and Brown lightly used. But just as the door opened back up for him to take over the lead role, it was slammed shut for no apparent reason. Akers didn't touch the ball in either of the next two games, seeing a total of four snaps. It's still unclear whether it was health-related or if Akers somehow found his way into Sean McVay's doghouse but it seemed as if Akers was joining his fellow rookie RBs as one of the biggest busts of a draft class relative to expectation.

Then, just as suddenly as he went away, he returned without warning. Not only did Akers begin to see the field again, but he was also thrust into a full-blown timeshare with Henderson. Since then, he has gradually looked more and more like the RB1 for this team, even if in name only.

Since the Rams started using Cam Akers again in Week 8 (4 games):

Rushes
Darrell Henderson: 33
Cam Akers: 33

Success Rate
Darrell Henderson: 33.3%
Cam Akers: 54.6%

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 30, 2020

What Took So Long?

One of the main reasons Akers was held back so long was a missing ingredient in the toolbelt that so many head coaches value: pass protection. Akers' giftedness as a runner was never in question, but his ability to help in all aspects of the game was lacking.

Heading into Week 12, Akers graded out at a 46.8 in pass blocking according to PFF. By contrast, Darrell Henderson grades out at 82.6, which is third-highest among running backs if snap count minimums are ignored.

Despite his lackluster 19-yard output in the most recent game against San Francisco, Henderson has been an effective runner all year long. In fact, Football Outsiders has Henderson as the top-ranked rusher in terms of DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average).

image taken from FootballOutsiders

While Akers now averages 4.8 yards per carry compared to 4.3 for Henderson, his DVOA is far lower. In fact, it's in the negative range and qualifies as 12th-lowest among running backs.

The analytics crowd should take one look at this data and applaud McVay for not pushing Akers into the lineup sooner. The fantasy crowd just wants him to pick one guy and stick with him.

Although Henderson has done a great job on paper, he doesn't have the home run ability or burst as Akers. The rookie also has an outstanding 22% broken tackle rate compared to 9% for Henderson and he averages 2.7 yards after contact. It may be against McVay's nature, especially after a year spent with a plodding Todd Gurley, whose long run of 2019 out of 223 carries was 25 yards. In 59 carries, Akers already has a run of 46 and 61 yards.

This is an aspect of the offense that can't be overstated enough - Akers can take it to the house on any given play. He may struggle at times on interior runs but he will keep defenses honest. This is why Miles Sanders has been successful despite some games where he looks terrible. Akers even posted a better speed score than Sanders in the NFL Combine with a ranking in the 89th percentile. Those are the running backs that make splash plays and lead to fantasy victories.

True Breakout or One Good Game?

The million-dollar question is whether his Week 12 performance is a harbinger of things to come or a mirage in an otherwise desolate season. After all, he didn't break 100 yards on the day and truthfully gained almost all his yards on one big play.

What a Run by Cam Akers! Finished off with a touchdown a few plays later ⚡️?
pic.twitter.com/Zd6nmCzOCn

— Dynasty Nerds ? (@DynastyNerds) November 29, 2020

Anyone familiar with Akers coming out of college has seen this before. He ran for 1,144 yards as a junior for a 6-7 Florida State team whose offensive line ranked as one of the worst in D-I, primarily on the strength of his ability to shed tackles and pile up yards after contact while utilizing his breakaway speed in the open field.

Needless to say, he's not a complete NFL player yet and must improve even as a pure runner.

Where Cam Akers must get better: varying stride length to set up designed blocks to create more lane options embedded in the play design #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/9LMJoIj8Uc

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) November 30, 2020

It won't happen overnight and it may not happen this season but his dynasty stock certainly shouldn't take a hit based on this year's results regardless of how the rest of the season plays out.

Realistic Expectations ROS

There is no disputing the recent trend regarding the timeshare in this backfield. Between Week 5-7, Henderson saw either 14 or 15 rush attempts for three straight games. Once Akers re-emerged in Week 8 to become part of the committee, both players are averaging an identical 8.3 rush attempts in the past four games. Malcolm Brown is down to 5.5 carries in that span with just three carries in each of the past two games.

Expecting Akers to see his workload jump up dramatically based on one strong game, specifically one impressive drive, is unrealistic. Henderson has proven his worth and will not simply fade into obscurity. McVay clearly prefers a timeshare approach with his current backfield; only once has a Rams running back carried the ball 20 times in a game in 2020, which was Henderson in Week 3 when Akers was sidelined with his rib injury. No single runner will dominate touches going forward unless health issues force the matter.

That said, if there is a Rams running back you want to have on your roster for the remainder of the regular season, it is Akers. Snap counts and blocking grades don't mean squat in fantasy football - yards and touchdowns do.

Even if Akers never reaches his full potential this season in this offense because he is stuck splitting time, his ceiling is the highest. We've already seen glimpses of it. We just need to hope that his opportunity is great enough to keep him fantasy-relevant between Week 13-16.

The Rams' remaining schedule isn't particularly favorable or difficult for opposing running backs, so there is not a clear course of recommended action based on that alone. While none of these defenses are in the top-10 as far as restricting fantasy points to RB, none of them allow more than 4.3 yards per carry either.

Akers may not become the league winner that I envisioned in the preseason but he still has the potential to deliver points to RB-needy teams down the stretch and even possibly that boom week that helps your fantasy team secure a much-needed win in the postseason.

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