Buyer Beware? Hot Starts and Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Analysis (Week 18)

3 months ago by Ryan Kirksey

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With the second half of the MLB season officially underway, there will be a fresh batch of waiver wire options to consider this weekend. Many teams are starting to accept their fates in the playoff races and are beginning to call up some of their best prospects to fill gaps for the rest of the season. This piece will look at a couple who will be hot this weekend on the wire and whether their stats will continue.

Players like Colt Keith, Zach Neto, and Michael Toglia are exceptionally hot right now, but will it last? Just because these players are at the head of the class for this week's waiver wire doesn't mean the production will continue post All-Star break. Diving deep into their performances should tell a better story. That's the goal of this piece today.

Below are four players who are widely recommended as waiver-wire options across the fantasy baseball industry this weekend and deserve a closer look. It's not to say that these are not strong options for your teams considering your league's context, but each deserves a more critical eye based on their recent performance.

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Lawrence Butler, OF - Oakland Athletics

It was another massive performance for Lawrence Butler on Friday night, as he hit a single, a triple, drove in two runs, scored a run, and even drew a walk. The 23-year-old rookie has made a habit of tallying up big games and now he is up to nine home runs, six steals, and 27 RBI in 65 games, leading an unexpected charge of life into the Oakland offense. Butler moved into the leadoff spot for Oakland each of the last three games and is the second-best fantasy player in the last seven days. However, I see cause for concern that might not allow Butler to continue his torrid pace for many more weeks.

Lawrence Butler comes through with a go-ahead triple to stay red hot, but Jacob Wilson comes up hobbling and has been removed from the game after an apparent hamstring injury.

Brutal, brutal luck for this franchise. #Athletics pic.twitter.com/glZEotKFc0

— Uprooted (@uprootedoakland) July 20, 2024

Starting with the obvious, Butler is striking out almost 30% of the time this season. Last season in a 42-game sample, Butler struck out 27% of the time and slashed .211/.240/.341 during his time with Oakland. Not surprisingly, that's about what projections have Butler at for the rest of the season. Our own ATC projections peg him at .228/.288/.386 with a 27% strikeout rate the rest of the way. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is on the low side at .255, so he could find some improvement there. I just can't find myself thinking Butler will finish anywhere close to a 20/20 season this year.

Rece Hinds, OF/DH - Cincinnati Reds

Five home runs and 11 RBI in his first seven games is certainly an accomplishment for Rece Hinds, but if you think that pace continues, I've got some stock to sell you in other players on massive seven-game hit streaks. Hinds' massive .423/.464/1.192 line is driven by a .429 BABIP and unsustainable 41.7% home run per fly ball rate. Hinds is striking out over 25% of the time and walking just 3%, showing a major lack of plate discipline that will come back to haunt him sooner rather than later.

Rece Hinds is the first player in MLB history to have 8 extra-base hits in the first six games of a career:

⚾️4 homers (3x 430 ft+)
⚾️3 doubles
⚾️1 triple

Preposterous week for the Reds rookie. pic.twitter.com/DySpnZwCkn

— Charlie Clifford (@char_cliff) July 13, 2024

Looking at his expected numbers in Statcast, he should be a great hitter, but not Barry Bonds circa 2003. His expected batting average is 60 points lower than his actual average right now and his projected batting average is just .222 for the balance of the season. Hinds' 63% fly ball rate will go down. His 21% ground ball rate will go up, and soon there will be more balance in his offensive numbers. The 52% hard-hit rate and the 31.6% barrel rate are admittedly quite impressive, but this is a guy who struck out more than 30% of the time in the minors and is likely to get exposed soon.

Jacob Wilson, SS - Oakland Athletics

Yes, prized rookie Jacob Wilson left his Major League debut on Friday with a strained hamstring, but that's not the only reason you should tread carefully with him during this waiver period. Look, I am just as fascinated and intrigued by Wilson as every other manager out there, but we have to be realistic.

This is a guy who has played fewer than 75 minor league games and has BABIPs that look more like basketball shooting percentages at several of his brief stops (.500, .571, .487). He hit well over .400 in the minor leagues in total and never had an OBP lower than .378. But all that was accomplished with a walk rate well under 8% and hardly power or speed to write home about.

Jacob Wilson hit .401 in 72 career @MiLB games.

He picks up his first Major League hit on the 2nd pitch he sees! pic.twitter.com/hPYK1mjha0

— MLB (@MLB) July 20, 2024

To make things even more complicated, Wilson put up these gaudy minor league numbers while playing two of his stints in Midland and Las Vegas, notoriously two of the most hitter-friendly environments in all of the minor leagues. Now he will make the cavernous Oakland Coliseum his home park for the rest of the season? Color me hesitant to believe he could have this kind of meteoric rise and also fare this well against big league pitching. ATC projections for the rest of the year have him hitting .230 with a .366 slugging percentage.

Drew Thorpe, SP - Chicago White Sox

Let me paint a picture of the pitcher Drew Thorpe was in the Yankees organization in 2023 before he was traded to the White Sox for the 2024 year. Across two levels last season, Thorpe struck out more than 12 batters per nine innings, he had an ERA under 2.50 and was 14-2 across 23 starts. Fast forward to his first six starts now in the Major Leagues and things don't look nearly as good. His ERA looks great at 3.58 and he already has three wins in six games. But that's largely smoke and mirrors and needs to be exposed.

Somehow, Thorpe's strikeout rate in the Major Leagues has tumbled to just 5.2 per nine innings. His walks are 4.1 per nine. That's basically a combination that's unheard of and is not sustainable for long-term success. His BABIP allowed is comically low at .158 and will start heading way up very soon. Thorpe's FIP and xFIP are 4.97 and 5.37, respectively, showing that his next 32 innings are unlikely to be anything like his first 32. He has had a nice story to his Major League debut, but I am certainly selling before the bottom falls out.

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