X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Buy or Sell - Surprising Pitchers Off to Hot Starts in 2018

The beginning of the season is one of the toughest times of the year for fantasy baseball managers. Reading into small sample sizes is a tough task, as it can set you up for success the rest of the year if you make a smart waiver wire or set you back by giving up on a player too early.

Pitchers are some of the hardest players to evaluate in the early going. One bad start can make their overall numbers look terrible, and a handful of good outings can send fantasy managers rushing to the waiver wire. And if you’re lucky enough to win the claim on them, you have the tough choice of deciding whether the hot start is legitimate or trading the player away while his value is high.

Luckily, we’re here to help you out with that decision. Several unexpected hurlers have gotten off to fantastic starts in 2018. But are the numbers for real or should you expect regression? Below are some answers to those questions, and whether you should buy or sell the following surprise pitchers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Are These Hot Starts for Real?

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks

The best left-handed pitcher in the game is Clayton Kershaw. But you could easily argue the best southpaw so far in 2018 is Patrick Corbin. After flirting with a perfect game on last week, Corbin now holds a sparkling 4-0 record and a 1.89 ERA through five starts. That has to be a fluke, though, right? Not so much.

Corbin’s FIP is 1.99 and his xFIP is even better at 1.69. Continuing to use the slider as his primary pitch after it worked well for him in 2017, Corbin has taken his game to the next level. He currently ranks fourth in baseball with a 39.3% strikeout rate, and batters are whiffing at his slider a ridiculous 32.7% of the time they swing at it. Corbin has also added a curveball to his repertoire this year, giving batters two breaking pitches to worry about. Even better: his walk rate continues to decline, sitting at just 4.9%, and his average exit velocity (86.0 mph) ranks 17th among 123 starting pitchers with 50 or more batted balls allowed.

He likely won’t strike out batters at this level or maintain a sub-two ERA all year -- he’s allowed a BABIP of just .200 and a strand rate of 84.3% -- but the changes in his pitch mix are real and should result in lasting success. His value is rising with each start, meaning now is the time to buy. That said, Corbin owners who can turn his hot start into an asset with a longer track record of success should certainly do so, though you can feel confident holding onto him if the trade offers are substandard.

Verdict: Buy/Hold

 

Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox

Few pitchers had a more disappointing season in 2017 than Rick Porcello. The 2016 American League Cy Young winner gave up a whole bunch of home runs (38 in 203 ⅓ innings) en route to a disappointing 11-17 record and 4.65 ERA. Did he return to his pre-2016 form, a solid but unspectacular pitcher who had never quite lived up to his once-high prospect potential? Early returns in 2018 suggest that answer is no.

Through four starts, Porcello has a spotless record (4-0) and 1.40 ERA in 25 ⅔ innings. His strikeout rate (23.0%) sits well above his career mark (16.7%) and he’s walked only one batter. The control has always been there, but can he realistically sustain the strikeouts? It appears a change in pitch mix has at least partially led to the increase and may help him .

Porcello has used his sinker (40.5% vs. 25.9% in 2017), slider (23.2% vs. 16.9%), and changeup more (15.4% vs. 8.3%) in 2018, while reducing his usage of the four-seam fastball and curveball. Those three pitches all have drop to them and, accordingly, Porcello has seen a significant increase in groundball rate (49.3% vs. 39.2%). That’s helped him suppress the home run ball so far, as he’s yet to allow a round-tripper.

Like Corbin, Porcello’s early improvement appears tied to a tangible change in his repertoire. The league will presumably adjust after seeing him for a second time, but his start appears legitimate by most metrics. On the other hand, Porcello has always been wildly inconsistent, and his 2017 will probably have most owners hesitant to give up much of value in a trade, making him a hold for now. If you're a non-Porcello owner, it's worth sending out some feelers to see if you can get him cheap before he has a chance to fully re-establish his value.

Verdict: Hold

 

Ian Kennedy, Royals

If you think Porcello has been inconsistent throughout his big-league career, Ian Kennedy is certainly in the same neighborhood. He’s been an on-again, off-again fantasy player for most of his career, and after an abysmal 2017 (5.38 ERA, 5.61 FIP, 5.25 xFIP), he’s seemingly flipped the switch back to ‘on’ once more.

With last year’s hamstring injury behind him, Kennedy is 1-2 with a 2.35 ERA in his first 23 innings of 2018 and is up to 44% ownership in Yahoo leagues after going undrafted in most formats. The first numbers you look at with the early bright performances are strikeouts and walks. Kennedy is trending in the right direction in both areas, as his strikeouts are up (22.0% vs. 20.0% in 2017) and his walks are down (7.0% vs. 9.3%). The biggest positive of Kennedy’s start is the resurgence of his changeup, which holds a 1.2 pVAL after coming in at -2.1 last season.

Red flags appear all over the place, however. Despite his increase in strikeout rate, he’s not missing more bats. In fact, his swinging strike rate has decreased to 7.5%, well below his career average (9.4%) and even last year’s pedestrian percentage (8.9%). Batters are also making contact on 84.3% of their swings against Kennedy, well above the league average (76.4%) and his career rate (79.6%).

The quality of contact he’s allowing is discouraging, too. Kennedy’s hard-contact rate sits at 42.3% (11th-worst among qualified starters), and he’s allowing an abysmal average exit velocity of 91.4 mph. Given his extremely low groundball rate (33.3%), home runs will likely be a problem for him again after allowing more than 30 in each of the last three seasons.

Kennedy has been an unexpected source for strikeouts in the early going of 2018, but his most recent outing (five innings, four earned runs, three walks, two home runs allowed) may be a sign of things to come. Now is the time to sell high if you can get anything of value in return for him.

Verdict: Sell

 

More 2018 MLB Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sam Hilliard32 mins ago

Outrighted To Triple-A Albuquerque
Trea Turner38 mins ago

Appears As Pinch-Hitter On Monday
Dominic Smith42 mins ago

Returning To Yankees On Minor-League Deal
Lance Lynn48 mins ago

Announces His Retirement
Michael Petersen49 mins ago

Angels Designate Michael Petersen For Assignment
Devin Williams53 mins ago

Yankees Place Devin Williams On Paternity List
Hogan Harris59 mins ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jordan Spieth1 hour ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Yu-Min Lin1 hour ago

Set To Participate In Extended Spring Training
Joe Elbis1 hour ago

Opening Season On Double-A Injured List
Jake Knapp1 hour ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Randy Arozarena3 hours ago

Smashes Second Homer Of The Season
Luke Raley3 hours ago

Goes Yard In Mariners Loss
Michael Busch3 hours ago

Homers And Picks Up Four RBI On Monday
Cole Anthony3 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Tuesday
Kyle Tucker3 hours ago

Homers In Third Straight Game
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Likely To Miss Another Game Tuesday
Carson Kelly4 hours ago

Completes Cycle To Carry Cubs
Anfernee Simons4 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday's Game
Garrett Crochet4 hours ago

Agrees To Six-Year Extension With The Red Sox
Scoot Henderson4 hours ago

Unavailable Tuesday
Deandre Ayton4 hours ago

Out Against Hawks
AJ Green4 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Tuesday
Thomas Harrington4 hours ago

Making MLB Debut On Tuesday
Kyle Lowry4 hours ago

Picks Up A Questionable Tag
Tyrese Maxey4 hours ago

Remains Out Against Knicks
Quentin Grimes4 hours ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Teoscar Hernández5 hours ago

Teoscar Hernandez Goes Deep On Monday
Gavin Sheets5 hours ago

Tallies Four RBI In Monday's Victory
Wilmer Flores5 hours ago

Hits Home Run, Tallies Four RBI In Victory
Dansby Swanson5 hours ago

Goes Deep Again On Monday
Christian McGowan5 hours ago

Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Casey DeSmith6 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment6 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka6 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov6 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov6 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes6 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens15 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA15 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Ochai Agbaji15 hours ago

Resting On Tuesday
RJ Barrett15 hours ago

To Be Rested Tuesday Night
Immanuel Quickley15 hours ago

Returning To Action Against Bulls
Jakob Poeltl15 hours ago

Available On Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga16 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday's Game
Christian Braun16 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Meeting With Timberwolves
Aaron Gordon16 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable For Tuesday
Jamal Murray16 hours ago

Iffy For Tuesday
LeBron James16 hours ago

Ready To Play Against Rockets
Nikola Jokić16 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play Against Timberwolves
Trae Young16 hours ago

Likely To Face Portland
Bradley Beal16 hours ago

Could Return On Tuesday
Denny McCarthy17 hours ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman17 hours ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov19 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl19 hours ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Garnet Hathaway19 hours ago

Rejoins Flyers Lineup
Erik Johnson19 hours ago

Available Monday
Rasmus Ristolainen20 hours ago

Not Expected To Return This Season
Ryan Preece20 hours ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
Colton Sissons20 hours ago

Likely Out For Rest Of The Season
NASCAR20 hours ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Jonathan Marchessault20 hours ago

Day-To-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Todd Gilliland20 hours ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno20 hours ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg20 hours ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober20 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres21 hours ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall21 hours ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos21 hours ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara21 hours ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox21 hours ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez21 hours ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton21 hours ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales21 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.21 hours ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
New York Jets21 hours ago

Jets To Wait On Contract Extensions For Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner
Saimon Oliveira21 hours ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez21 hours ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Jameson Williams21 hours ago

Detroit To Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Kevin Borjas22 hours ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Brandon Aiyuk22 hours ago

49ers Expected To Hold Brandon Aiyuk
Ronaldo Rodríguez22 hours ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen22 hours ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman22 hours ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki22 hours ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy22 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim22 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler22 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Bud Cauley22 hours ago

Finishes Tied For Fourth At Valspar Championship
Sam Burns22 hours ago

Misses The Cut At Valspar Championship
Daniel Berger22 hours ago

Finishes Tied For 20th At The PLAYERS Championship
Treylon Burks1 day ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Training Camp
Keenan Allen1 day ago

Chargers Not Ruling Out Reuniting With Keenan Allen
Breece Hall1 day ago

Could Be Part Of Committee In 2025
James Cook1 day ago

Bills Not Close To Extension With James Cook
Tyreek Hill1 day ago

Dolphins Planning On Tyreek Hill Being Part Of Their Future
Baltimore Ravens1 day ago

Ravens Expected To Draft A Kicker
Mark Andrews1 day ago

Ravens Expect Mark Andrews Back In 2025
Lamar Jackson1 day ago

Ravens Have Had Early Extension Talks With Lamar Jackson
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Joseph Woll1 day ago

Stands Tall On Sunday
UTA1 day ago

Alex Kerfoot Leads The Way In Sunday's Victory
Tristan Jarry1 day ago

Shuts The Door On Ottawa On Sunday
Sebastian Aho1 day ago

Busy In Sunday's Victory
Anze Kopitar1 day ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Sunday
Troy Terry1 day ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe1 day ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones1 day ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Zach Wilson2 days ago

Still Views Himself As A Starter
New York Giants2 days ago

Victor Dimukeje Signs With Giants
Dallas Cowboys2 days ago

Brian Schottenheimer Optimistic About Deal With Micah Parsons
Lane Hutson2 days ago

Continues Special Campaign With Hat Trick Of Assists
Nick Suzuki2 days ago

Notches Three Points In Sunday's Win
Justin Fields2 days ago

Aaron Glenn Thinks Justin Fields Is Ready To Break Out
Dak Prescott2 days ago

"Doing Great" In Rehab From Hamstring Surgery
Jacksonville Jaguars2 days ago

Fred Johnson Signs With Jacksonville
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

Titans Still Entertaining Calls For No. 1 Overall Pick
Brandon Aiyuk2 days ago

Deadline Coming For Brandon Aiyuk
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]