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With over half of the MLB season behind us, it's safe to say that fantasy baseball has been especially tricky in 2024. Whether it's a slugger on the trading block or a "slow starter" hoping to recover from a rough first half, most of us would like a bit more offensive production.
In this article, Wade J. Smith (@wadejosephsmith) highlights underperforming hitters who will bounce back in the second half. Hopefully, you can trade for these players at a discounted rate and give your team a much-needed boost.
If you're looking for even more options, be sure to check out Fantasy Baseball Players Set For Second-Half Bounce-Backs (2024).
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Top Fantasy Baseball Hitter Buy-Low Candidates
Randy Arozarena, OF - Tampa Bay Rays
Coming into the season, Arozarena had a 42.0 ADP. His combination of power and speed, along with his impressive track record, made him an exciting draft pick. However, he severely underperformed in the first half, slashing .203/.309/.362 with 16 doubles, 12 home runs, 32 RBI, 14 stolen bases, and 42:93 BB/SO.
Throughout his career, Arozarena has been great at reaching base on balls in play. His .332 BABIP from 2021 to 2023 was the 28th highest among qualified hitters. This year, however, has been totally different. Arozarena's .247 BABIP currently ranks 14th lowest in all of baseball. There's no obvious explanation for this drastic shift. His average exit velocity, xSLG, xwOBA, and hard-hit rate are all above league average. It's incredibly abnormal. I'm inclined to call it an anomaly and give him the benefit of the doubt.
Most people who drafted Arozarena are probably frustrated and/or annoyed with his first-half production, so there's a chance you can snag him for less than he's worth. It might be harder now than it would've been last week. Since returning from the All-Star break, he's 6-for-16 with two doubles and three homers. Considering his career .828 OPS in the second half, there's probably a lot more where that came from.
Randy Arozarena crushes his 3rd home run of the series. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/BrNShbWnCj
— MLB (@MLB) July 21, 2024
Matt Olson, 1B - Atlanta Braves
Few expected another 2023 season, but even fewer expected this. After leading MLB in home runs (54) and RBI (139), Olson has been one of the most disappointing players in all of fantasy baseball. At the end of the first half, he was slashing .230/.309/.405 with 21 doubles, 14 homers, and 44 RBI. For some reason, it just hasn't been his year. He's been especially bad on the road, slashing just .193/.280/.332 with eight doubles, six homers, 22 RBI, and 36:109 BB/SO.
Like Arozarena, Olson normally improves after the All-Star break. Here are his career splits, provided by Baseball Reference.
Overall, I think Olson will heat up. It's hard to imagine someone with this much talent finishing the season with an OPS+ under 100. However, if his start to this year's second half is any indication, I could be flat-out wrong. As of right now, he's 0-for-15 with three strikeouts. While I may be overly optimistic, I still suggest trying to acquire him. There's just too much upside to ignore, especially if you can get him at a discount.
Gleyber Torres, 2B - New York Yankees
Heading into free agency, Torres has been incredibly underwhelming. In the first half, he slashed .231/.307/.347 with 15 doubles, eight home runs, 35 RBI, and 36:86 BB/SO. Additionally, his underlying metrics are far below his career averages.
Torres is another player who's done better in the second half, particularly in August and September. Here are his monthly splits, provided by Baseball Reference.
Like his career norms, Torres' worst month of 2024 was April, and his best month has been May. If these trends continue, he should start improving soon. Add in the fact that he's on the cusp of free agency, along with the Yankees fighting for the AL East, and Torres has a lot to play for. If you can get him for a low price, I recommend getting it done.
Gleyber Torres has his first three-hit game since April 27th! pic.twitter.com/illPoUPbXL
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) July 13, 2024
Mitch Garver, C - Seattle Mariners
In his first season with the Mariners, Garver hasn't been the power-hitting backstop they were expecting. In the first half, he slashed .174/.289/.356 with 13 doubles, 12 home runs, 19 RBI, and 40:96 BB/SO. It seems his biggest issue is consistently making contact. Oddly enough, he's maintained one of the best chase rates in MLB while also having one of the worst strikeout rates. If he could make an adjustment, he could be one of the second half's best offensive catchers.
Like the others on this list, Garver is normally much better in the second half (his splits are below, provided by Baseball Reference). Last year, following the All-Star break, he slashed .277/.384/.524 with 15 homers. Clearly, he's capable of turning things around. With how rough it's been to find an offensive catcher, I'm willing to take a chance on him, especially in deeper leagues.
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