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After running on a dirt track, two short tracks and a superspeedway in the last four races, the NASCAR Cup Series returns to an intermediate track this weekend, the meat and potatoes of its schedule.
On Sunday, the race sponsor of all race sponsors, the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway will take place. And over the past handful of seasons, there haven't been many surprises at the 1.5-mile racetrack, as the top teams and drivers almost always take the trophy. Don't expect that to change this weekend.
Coming off a weekend filled with mixed results at Talladega Superspeedway, a multitude of those expected frontrunners will start mid-pack on back. Of course, you could select Kevin Harvick (not highlighted in this piece) for your lineup too, as he has seven top-two finishes in the last 15 Kansas races. Let's see who you should have on your radar of potential selections for this weekend's race at Kansas.
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Kyle Larson
(DraftKings $11,300 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +650)
Hendrick Motorsports has been dominant on intermediate racetracks in 2021, and in particular Kyle Larson. In three races on 1.5-mile tracks this season, Larson has led 377 laps (out of 859, 43.9%) and scored his first triumph with HMS at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Yes, the No. 5 team has had two bad weekends in a row, but don't expect its performance on intermediate tracks to change. Will Larson lead the most laps from the rear of the field? Probably not. But given the fact he lines up 32nd for the green flag, I like those odds of scoring yourself some points.
Kansas has never been particularly kind to Larson, as he has five top-10 finishes in 12 starts. But three of those top 10s have been in his last four outings. Expect another one this weekend.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $11,100 | FanDuel $12,000 | DK SportsBook +900)
Joey Logano has made headlines this week after he airborne last Sunday at Talladega. He's hoping to create more headlines this week, but for the good reason.
And if we're looking at recent trends at Kansas, it might be a good idea to spend the cash on him this weekend. Because of his wreck last week, the No. 22 Ford will start Sunday's race from 29th, his worst starting position since the second race of a doubleheader at Pocono Raceway last June. Points are available there, should Logano gain positions.
Don't look back too far, as Logano is the most recent victor at Kansas, holding off a hard-charging Harvick late in the race last fall, primarily in part of having clean air. The bad news is, the track has always been hit or miss for the Connecticut native, three times a winner, but having also wrecked out in three of the last 10 races.
Personally, I like his odds this weekend, though the weakest part of the No. 22's program this year has been mile and a half racetracks.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $10,800 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +550)
Though Denny Hamlin starts 20th on Sunday, expect to see the No. 11 car up front at some point. Dating back to Martinsville Speedway, the No. 11 car has led the most laps in each of the past three Cup races.
Not saying Hamlin will lead the most laps on Sunday, but has has won two of the past three races at the venue. Dating back seven races at Kansas, the No. 11 has four top-five finishes, but an average finish of 15th in the other three races. Like Logano, it's been a hit or miss track for Hamlin.
But through 10 races in 2021, we've seen Hamlin be spectacular this season, just not being in the lead when the checkered flag falls. There's a good chance there's another top-five result in Hamlin's not-too-distant future.
Alex Bowman
(DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $9,200 | DK SportsBook +1800)
Since running for Hendrick Motorsports, Alex Bowman has been very underrated at Kansas. Dating back to 2016 (he ran at Kansas in the fall, replacing Dale Earnhardt Jr. who missed the second half of the year), Bowman has five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts at the track. Two of his last four races have ended in top-three results.
Bowman has been quite good over the last four years on tracks with a similar layout to Kansas. He won his first career race at Chicagoland Speedway, and was charging down Ryan Blaney at the end of last year's first race at Las Vegas before a caution flew. But statistically, Kansas is his best intermediate racetrack.
With Bowman having 18-1 odds of winning, that's a risk that could pay off for you. As noted earlier, HMS has been stout on intermediates this season, and the No. 48 team has found more speed recently. It wouldn't shock me to see Bowman stand tall after 400 miles on Sunday.
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Kurt Busch
(DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $8,700 | DK SportsBook +3500)
With the way the last two months of the season have gone for Kurt Busch, you're probably questioning this choice. I can't really blame you there. And though having never won at Kansas, Busch has been solid at the track over the past four seasons.
Nope, last fall's race didn't end well for the No. 1 team, as Busch blew an engine -- and honestly any hopes of making it to the championship race -- after running inside the top 10. Prior to that disappointing 38th-place finish, he was on a streak of three straight top 10s at the track since joining Chip Ganassi Racing.
Compared to some of the other Chevrolet teams, CGR is off this season, having its performance downgrade from the past two years. Currently, Busch sits 18th in points, 13 points outside the playoffs. With just two top-10 runs this season, the year has to turn upward at some point, and Kansas could be that place. The No. 1 Chevrolet starts 28th, so it's a gamble worth taking.
William Byron
(DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $9,500 | DK SportsBook +1600)
Through the opening 10 races of the season, I would vote William Byron as the most improved driver in the Cup Series from last year. After all, he's tied with Hamlin for most top-10 finishes with eight (Byron has eight straight heading into Kansas).
Like his HMS teammate Bowman, 16-1 odds is worth putting some money down for. Especially since the No. 24 car won on an intermediate at Homestead-Miami Speedway in February.
Byron will start second on Sunday. With how he's matured as a racecar driver and the speed he's shown this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see him walk away with the first stage and be in contention at the end for his second triumph of 2021.
Tyler Reddick
(DraftKings $6,900 | FanDuel $7,800 | DK SportsBook +4000)
One of the best traits of Kansas is, it allows drivers to run from the bottom of the racetrack all the way up against the wall. And no one works the wall quite like Tyler Reddick has recently.
Because of the maneuverability in lanes, this is a big weekend for Reddick, who enters the race 22nd in points. As a whole, Richard Childress Racing has shown an uptick in speed this year, but the No. 8 car had many hiccups early in the year.
In three Kansas starts, Reddick has an average finish of 15.7, but it is the site of his first top-10 finish at the Cup level (2019). There's no doubt we see the No. 8 rim-riding against the wall, hoping to score its fourth top-10 finish in five races.
Austin Cindric
(DraftKings $6,700| FanDuel $6,200 | DK SportsBook +30000)
Whenever Austin Cindric is racing this year, there's a very good chance he will make this list. Why? He's clearly ready for Cup, running in Team Penske equipment. That's a recipe for success.
Seeing Cindric actually win a race this year is a very tall task, and something that's not expected. But in his three starts thus far, the No. 33 car has shown flashes of real speed, despite four laps down in his most recent outing at Richmond Raceway.
Because he isn't running a chartered car and doesn't run weekly, Cindric will always start toward the rear. This week, he rolls off 38th and will likely soar to the mid 20s very quickly. For you, having a solid driver at a bargain price could be the difference in winning and losing.
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