Building an Optimal DFS Lineup: Season Finale 500

It all comes down to this.

The NASCAR Cup Series season finale is set to get underway from Phoenix Raceway on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. The four drivers vying for the championship are Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano.

When it comes to DraftKings, of course those drivers are going to be expensive, hell, they've been among the best five to six drivers all season long (I see you Kevin Harvick, who leads the series with nine victories). But if you play your numbers correctly, you should be able to squeeze two of them onto your lineup.

Which two, you ask? Well, Team Penske has been the standard bearer of the Cup Series this season when it comes to the 750 horsepower package. Joey Logano won at Phoenix in March, while Brad Keselowski has three names to his credit at 750 tracks this season. That means, this lineup will be centered around the two Penske drivers.

My DFS Lineup - Season Finale 500

Brad Keselowski ($10,800)

Career at Phoenix: 22 starts, 0 wins, 248 laps led
Average finish at Phoenix: 13.5

Uh, have you watched the races this season on flat racetracks of a mile or less in length this season? Keselowski has been the standout driver throughout the entire Cup field.

Flashback to the end of May, Keselowski wound up in victory lane at Bristol Motor Speedway for his second win of the season. At New Hampshire Motor Speedway in early August, the No. 2 team had a dominating performance, leading 184 of 301 laps. (That same tire combination will be run this weekend at Phoenix.) And who can forget the second race of the playoffs, Keselowski led 192 of 400 laps at Richmond Raceway en route to his fourth triumph of 2020.

Sure, Keselowski has a hefty price tag of $10,800, but honestly, I'm surprised it's not more. The No. 2 car will start third on Sunday, meaning if he falls back, it could be devastating to your team. But in March, he led 82 laps and won a stage after getting involved in an early incident.  Spoiler: Keselowski is my prediction to win the race -- his second Cup championship.

Joey Logano ($10,000)

Career at Phoenix: 23 starts, 2 wins, 449 laps led
Average finish at Phoenix: 14.3

If you ask Logano who he believes is the favorite for Sunday's championship race, he'll straight up tell you it's the No. 22 team. Maybe he's got a point.

Flashback to the first race in Phoenix this season, Logano won -- his last victory prior to winning at Kansas Speedway three weeks ago, assuring himself a spot into the Championship 4. Over the last two races, he's led 153 of 628 laps (24.4%) turned at Phoenix. And when things looked dim during the summer months, the No. 22 was still fast at 750 hp races, finishing fourth at New Hampshire.

Logano starts second in the championship race on Sunday. But if the previous two events are an indicator, the No. 22 car is going to be fast early. Don't be surprised if he runs away with the race, given Paul Wolfe has had three weeks to prepare the championship car.

Jimmie Johnson ($9,300)

Career at Phoenix: 34 starts, 4 wins, 994 laps led
Average finish at Phoenix: 10.4

One final time.

Sunday will mark the end of Johnson's full-time NASCAR career, and what a career it has been. Seven championships, 83 victories, nearly 19,000 laps led, arguably the best driver in NASCAR history.

At Phoenix, Johnson is among the best in track history, too (you can say that for many of the tracks on the current schedule). Four victories (none since 2009) and 21 top-10 finishes in 34 starts; not bad.

Maybe I'm picking this selection with my heart over my head, because who doesn't want to see Johnson end his career on a high not, clearly not what the 2020 season has been. However, the No. 48 car will lineup 26th on Sunday, so expect him to score you some additional points for methodically making his way through the field.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS NASCAR subscription?

Get winning DFS Lineup advice with RotoBaller's Premium DFS NASCAR Subscription, and use promo code RACING to get 10% off. You'll get access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, and Premium Content that is proven to help our experts and subscribers take down tournaments.

William Byron ($8,400)

Career at Phoenix: 5 starts, 0 wins, 15 laps led
Average finish at Phoenix: 14.4

If we're being honest, I think everyone thought Byron would have had a better season than he's had thus far. Yes, the Charlotte native scored his fist career victory in August at Daytona International Speedway, but he has four top-five finishes all season, three of which came in consecutive weeks.

For whatever reason -- no qualifying (Byron's proven to be a great qualifier), no practice, etc. -- Byron has just been average this season, showing no real improvement from 2019 (one less top-five finish, same amount of top 10s (13)).

Byron's starting 25th on Sunday, and will likely move through the field. Hopefully your sake, he leads lap and finishes inside the top 10... or better.

Ty Dillon ($6,000)

Career at Phoenix: 9 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Phoenix: 18.7

Speaking of one final time, Dillon will be making his final start for Germain Racing this weekend, as that single-car team will shutdown following Phoenix. But maybe the team could go out with a bang?

Don't expect Dillon to be in contention for the win at Phoenix, like he was at Talladega Superspeedway in October. But don't be surprised if he backs up his top-15 effort from March, as he's scored four top-15 finishes in nine starts at the track. His 11th-place finish in this race three years ago was his best career Cup finish at a track one mile in distance or less.

Quite honestly, Phoenix is arguably Dillon's best track on the circuit with the exceptions of superspeedways. At $6,000, the No. 13 car is probably undervalued at Phoenix, so don't overlook Germain in its final start, beginning the race 22nd.

Corey LaJoie ($5,300)

Career at Phoenix: 6 starts, 0 wins, 0 laps led
Average finish at Phoenix: 32.3

On paper, it looks as though you should stay away from LaJoie this weekend. An average finish of 32.3, yikes! But since moving to Go Fas Racing ahead of the 2019 season, it's gotten better (despite a 35th-place finish last fall, thanks to a fuel pump issues).

Phoenix marks the final full-time start for Go Fas Racing in Cup (it will run five-six events in 2021). So like Germain, maybe it can end with a bang? After all, LaJoie is solid at shorter tracks.

The No. 32 Ford will lineup 28th on Sunday. Expect LaJoie to finish better than that and is a respectable pick for $5,300.

NASCAR DFS News and Driver Outlooks

More Fantasy NASCAR Analysis

The Keys to Weekly NASCAR DFS Success

NASCAR is back, and it's time for you to win more with RotoBaller! Our DFS NASCAR Premium Package features several heavy hitters and proven winners.

Jordan McAbee anchors the team with his exclusive NASCAR picks, DFS projections and algorithm-predicted finishing order! In 2022 DFS contests, Jordan had a +33.92% profit margin good for +$10,467.06 profit and qualified for the Fantasy Racing World Championship.

Four-time NASCAR Racing Writer of the Year finalist and fantasy industry legend Scott "The King" Engel is also in the crew, bringing you his weekly strategies and lineup picks. Set your winning DFS lineups with our award-winning team.