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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Wednesday, April 26th.
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Today's Betting Overview - Heat @ Bucks
The Heat take on the Bucks on Wednesday, April 26th at Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Miami Heat (44-38) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (58-24)
- Date: Wednesday, April 26th
- Time: 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Heat @ Bucks
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Heat & Bucks Key Injuries
Heat
- Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
- Bam Adebayo (Probable) Hamstring
- Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
Bucks
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Back
Miami Heat - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Bucks by a score of 119-114, the Heat are riding a two-game win streak. Jimmy Butler led the way in scoring with 56 points. Miami was the 8.0-point underdog heading into the game, giving them an ATS win.
With the win, the team has moved to 44-38, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far this season, they have gone 27-14 at home and 17-24 on the road. Even though the Heat have rattled off two straight wins against the spread, their overall ATS record is 35-51.
Offensively, the Heat are 15th in the league at 109.5 points per game. But over their last five games, Miami has been playing well, averaging 118 points per contest. Miami's three-point shooting numbers are among the best in the NBA, as the team ranks 1st in the NBA, having hit 34.4% of their looks from deep. But given that they are just 22nd in possessions per game, their overall scoring numbers are closer to the league average. Currently, the Heat are 4th in overall field goal percentage.
This season, the Heat have allowed an average of 105.6 points per game, good for 2nd in the league. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have knocked down 34.0% of their looks from beyond the arc (21st) and 44.8% of their overall field goal attempts. Miami's overall defensive numbers have been good despite the unit's struggles on the glass, sitting just 15th in defensive rebounds per game. The Heat are also a below-average group in forced turnovers, at just 12.8 per game.
Milwaukee Bucks - NBA Betting Analysis
The Bucks enter today's game having lost two straight, including a 119-114 loss to the Heat. Brook Lopez led the team in scoring with 36 points on 56.5% shooting. Going into the game, Milwaukee was an 8.0-point favorite, adding an ATS loss to their resume.
Now, the Bucks' overall record sits at 58-24, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. The team's current record at home is 32-9 and 26-15 on the road. For the season, the Bucks are 43-37 vs. the spread but have failed to cover in 2 straight games.
So far this season, the Bucks' offense has been one of the top units in the NBA, sitting 12th in the league with an average of 116.9 points per game. In their last five games, Milwaukee is averaging 114 points per contest. Milwaukee has utilized its pace effectively this season, with an average of 96.2 possessions per game, which ranks 22nd in the league. Their fast-paced style has offset their three-point field goal percentage of 36.8% (14th). The Bucks are 33rd in the NBA for free-throw attempts and have a shooting percentage of 74.3%.
The Bucks enter today's game ranked 2nd in the league with an average of 105.6 points allowed per game. Opponents have a 34.0% success rate from three-point range and have an overall field goal percentage of 44.8%. However, Milwaukee has shown some weaknesses on the boards, ranking 15th in defensive rebounds per game. They are also a below-average unit at forcing turnovers, at just 13.9 per game.
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Heat vs. Bucks
Today's matchup will be the 8th game of the season between the Heat and the Bucks. So far, the Heat have the leg up in the series 5-3. The last time the teams met up, the Heat won by a score of 119-114 as the 8.0-point underdogs (119-114). Together the teams combined to score 233 points which were more than the over/under line of 218.0.
In the Heat's previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 4-1 against the spread. Across their last three road games, they are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 straight up. Their previous ten games have an over/under mark of 8-2 with an average of 229 points per contest.
Across Milwaukee's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 0-4-1 while going 2-3 straight-up. As the favorite, the Bucks are 1-2 straight up on an average scoring differential of -21 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 1-2. Their previous ten games have ended in an average of 235 points per game and an over/under mark of 8-2.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: MIL -11.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 219.5
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