Chiefs vs. Bills Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, Josh Allen, James Cook, Stefon Diggs, Khalil Shakir, more

Football fans will be treated to a Sunday doubleheader to determine the remaining teams that will be headed to the NFL Conference Championship games. Below you can read our matchups analysis article for the Chiefs vs. Bills game to help make any fantasy lineup decisions for playoff leagues and DFS contests.

It seems as though these two teams can't get away from each other, as the Chiefs and Bills met in the 2021 AFC Championship game and the 2022 Divisional Round with Kansas City emerging victorious both times. In this year's playoff meeting, the Bills will be hosting the Chiefs for the first time. This could be another classic!

Read our fantasy football breakdowns for this game -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into an exciting game during the Divisional round. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Spread: Bills -2.5
Implied Total: Chiefs (21.5) vs. Bills (24)
Pace: Chiefs (20th) vs. Bills (26th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 25.9% Pass (8th), -5.4% Rush (17th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 40.9% Pass (3rd), 3.1% Rush (7th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -7.2% Pass (5th), -1.7% Rush (27th)
Bills Def. DVOA: 0.1% Pass (9th), -8.7% Rush (17th)
PFF Coverage Grade: Chiefs (20th) vs. Bills (4th)
PFF Rush D Grade: Chiefs (21st) vs. Bills (29th)
Offensive EPA/Play: Chiefs (11th) vs. Bills (3rd)
EPA/Play Allowed: Chiefs (6th) vs. Bills (11th)

WEATHER: This game is forecasted to be fairly cold with moderate sustained wind, which could impact the passing attacks.

Matchups We Love

Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

Allen remains a man on a mission. He carved up the Steelers for 203 yards and three touchdowns through the air with a beastly run for 52 yards to the end zone as the cherry on top. Buffalo will get their shot to avenge their heartbreaking playoff losses to Kansas City, this time in Orchard Park. We saw these two meet back in Week 14, resulting in a 20-17 win for the Bills, largely because Kadarius Toney lined up offside. It's tempting to assume we'll get a shootout, but both defenses are playing well, so the over/under landing in the mid 40s makes sense. That doesn't remove Allen from his QB1 overall status though.

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are 3-3 against each other. Who takes it this Sunday? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/RhR2EejPyM

— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) January 19, 2024

Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)

Things went about as expected for Kincaid, who finished second in targets and found the end zone. Dawson Knox scored as well, which he's prone to do. It's a decent matchup and without reliable secondary receivers, Kincaid is the de facto No. 2 option. He lands at TE5 with Knox always worth a dart throw in DFS.

Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)

The Chiefs winning at home in the fourth coldest game in NFL history while hosting the Dolphins was an easy outcome to predict. Their defense was impenetrable except for one big play to Hill while the offense did enough. Pacheco led the way with 24 carries for 89 yards and a score. The Bills defense is banged up and we know Pacheco will get all the work, so he's locked into the top five.

Rashee Rice (WR, KC)

It's common for a rookie wideout to improve as the season goes on, but Rice made significant strides, which he capped off with a great outing last week. As has come to be the norm, he led the way in targets, receptions, and yards, plus he hauled in the only receiving touchdown. It still feels a little strange to view him in the same light as other No. 1 options in the league, but he's proven he'll deliver time and time again. He lands just outside the top five.

Travis Kelce (TE, KC)

Kelce showed up relative to his regular season performances, but didn't quite hit the elite levels we're used to. He looks hurt and a little out of shape. He also had multiple blatant drops that would've made for a bigger day. They'll need his best effort to knock off the Bills. He's the TE2.

travis kelce used to do this every game pic.twitter.com/obbFKLvD4v

— . (@cashout4kt) January 14, 2024

Matchups We Hate

Chiefs Other WRs

Justin Watson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Richie James, Mecole Hardman Jr., Kadarius Toney, Justyn Ross, and Skyy Moore could all be active and contribute on Sunday. Identifying if any of them will be worth taking a shot on is very difficult. Hardman Jr. gets the deep shots, so he's the preferred choice, but it's best to explore other options.

UPDATE: Moore and Toney have been ruled out while Ross is listed as questionable. Hardman remains the favorite of this bunch.

Other Matchups:

James Cook (RB, BUF)

Cook's usage was quite good with 18 carries and four receptions. He totaled 84 yards but was unable to find pay dirt because all four touchdowns came from Allen. That is the primary problem with his fantasy outlook. He's still capable of going over 100 yards with three to five targets, but the ceiling is capped with other players involved near the goal line. He's the RB7.

Stefon Diggs & Khalil Shakir (WR, BUF)

Diggs kept his momentum rolling against the Steelers with seven receptions on nine targets. They were all closer to the line of scrimmage, evidenced by his 7.33 aDot. He's been used in that way since they changed offensive coordinators, averaging more than 10 yards just four times since Week 7. The other concern for him this week is a rematch with L'Jarius Sneed, who punished Tyreek Hill last week, and dominated Diggs in their previous meeting. With Gabe Davis yet to practice, it looks like Shakir will get another chance to make an impact. He had an impressive catch-and-run touchdown last week, outmuscling defenders. Assuming Davis misses, Diggs will land around the WR8 with Shakir as the WR13.

UPDATE: Davis has been ruled out as expected.

With the news that WR Gabe Davis has been ruled out once again this week, how do we feel about the #Bills receiving corps? Is it Khalil Shakir's time to shine?@KevinMassare and @kevin_siracuse discussed on @GoingDeepBUF the other night. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/oyZ9Q2d157

— Built in Buffalo (@BuiltInBuffalo_) January 19, 2024

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)

Mahomes was good but not great once again. He threw for 262 yards and a score. The offense stalled inside the 14-yard line four times, settling for field goals, which has been an issue. Furthermore, they're not required to go for it on fourth down in those spots because their defense has been so suffocating. Mahomes has the potential to put up a top-five week, but he's firmly behind the top four.

Notable Injuries

Skyy Moore (knee)
Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle)
Justyn Ross (hamstring)
Gabe Davis (knee)

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