Buccaneers vs. Falcons TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Drake London, Cade Otton, Kyle Pitts

For the fourth week in a row, Thursday Night Football with feature an intra-divisional game, this time between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams feature top-end fantasy football options, including multiple wide receivers, a premier running back, and two quarterbacks on the ascent. Tight ends? We will have to see about that.

Both teams are coming off exciting wins, with the Falcons' defense dominating against the New Orleans Saints and the Buccaneers dominating the Eagles in a rematch of their blowout in the 2023 playoffs. These two teams will likely be fighting for the division lead all season, and this should be a fun, back-and-forth contest with the potential for plenty of points.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 5 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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• Tight end fantasy football rankings

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons - 8:20 p.m. EDT

Notable Injuries:

• Jalen McMillan (WR, TB) - Hamstring - OUT

Buccaneers @ Falcons Matchup Breakdown

After averaging 45.5 points per game in Weeks 1 and 2, the New Orleans Saints offense has come back down to earth, resulting in two straight losses for the Saints. What that has done is make room for both Tampa Bay and Atlanta to emerge as the more complete and powerful teams in the division. Atlanta pulled off a dramatic win against New Orleans last week, while Tampa Bay demolished Philadelphia.

On the season Tampa Bay ranks 11th with 24.3 points per game and they are seventh with 3.8 red zone trips per game. Their passing attack (which they utilize 61% of the time) has become a high-flying must-see unit led by Baker Mayfield and the dynamic duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

They would much prefer to use those two receivers, their tight ends, and their pass-catching backs to score points and leave the rushing attempts for when it's absolutely necessary.

An NFC South showdown on TNF!#TBvsATL – Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/8vEX80BSPz

— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2024

Atlanta, on the other hand, is just in the middle of the pack in opponent points per game (21.3), but they are a top-10 unit in allowing the fewest red zone scores per game (1.8). They provide pressure, particularly in the secondary, so this should be a very fun matchup between the Tampa Bay receivers and the Atlanta defensive backs.

Tampa Bay has struggled against opposing quarterbacks (sixth in fantasy points allowed), but that is a bit misleading when you look into the stats. They have only allowed one passing touchdown all year but somehow have allowed four rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks. They won't have that concern against Kirk Cousins and Atlanta.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)

Yes, we have entered into territory where Baker Mayfield is a must-start quarterback. He has one game this season with fewer than 19.8 fantasy points and ranks as the QB3 in overall points so far this season. Atlanta is fourth in yards per completion to opponents, but the Buccaneers pass at the 10th-highest rate in the league.

Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold operating the most pass-centric offenses in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/zxSPaCgKWq

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) October 1, 2024

Mike Evans (WR, TB)

Weeks 2 and 3 were significant letdowns after 20.6 half-PPR points in Week 1, but Evans bounced back with 19.4 points in Week 4, and just like that, he is back on track. Evans is only WR18 in targets and WR34 in target share (22.7%) through four weeks, yet he is still the overall WR16. There is room for upward movement here, and he is Mayfield's No. 1 target.

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

Even with "only" 9.9 fantasy points in Week 4, Chris Godwin is still the WR6 in half-PPR fantasy points this season. Now, back to playing more than 60% of his snaps in the slot, Godwin has fallen back into his elite wide receiver patterns, and he ranks third in receptions and second in yards after the catch this season.

Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)

Bijan Robinson was the subject of a lot of discussions this week after coach Raheem Morris' "stats are for losers" comment when Kyle Pitts had zero points, and Robinson only played in 64% of snaps (far and away a season low).

But we shouldn't overthink this. Robinson is seventh in opportunity share, ninth in targets, and third in snap share this season. He is a must-start, and Tampa Bay is likely going to have their hands full with him all night.

Bijan Robinson TD wiped out on a pretty, pretty, pretty weak holding penalty pic.twitter.com/1Cm8Ishs41

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 30, 2024

Drake London (WR, ATL)

Call Drake London the anti-Mike Evans because he was excellent in Weeks 2 and 3 but downright pitiful in Weeks 1 and 4. He is WR22 in fantasy points this year, but that doesn't tell the whole story. London is first among wide receivers in snap share and route participation. He is second in red zone targets (six) and is 16th in target share. The opportunity is there, so the production should follow.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Cade Otton (TE, TB)

After two slow weeks to start the season, Otton is back with a vengeance in Weeks 3 and 4. Otton combined for one catch and five yards in the first two games and has 13 catches for 99 yards in the two games since. Even with a slow start, Otton has a 16.4% target share which is 11th among all tight ends.

Cade Otton has 17 targets over the last two weeks.

3rd behind Goedert and Ferg.

Nice cheap buy in a rough TE scene pic.twitter.com/YWrh6Solp2

— Losing Sucks (@LosingSucks) October 1, 2024

Rachaad White (RB, TB)

As of now, Rachaad White has the heavier share of the running back workload between him and Bucky Irving, but it's moving in the wrong direction. White played on 58% of snaps in Week 4 and rushed 10 times for 49 yards - better efficiency than in past weeks. Atlanta is a top-10 team against running backs this season, so I'm not expecting anything more than low-end RB2 numbers here with about 60% of snaps.

Bucky Irving (RB, TB)

Bucky Irving is the emerging hotness in Tampa Bay (and in the fantasy football world) after seeing his role grow to 42% of snaps in Week 4. He had the same 10 rushes for 49 yards as Rachaad White, but Irving scored the touchdown in that game, which is something White can't claim to have done all year. Irving has the speed and pass-catching to play on any set of downs.

Players who have more inside the 5-yard line carries than Bijan Robinson

- Derek Carr
- Bucky Irving
- Khalil Herbert
- Daniel Jones
- Carson Steele

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 1, 2024

Darnell Mooney (WR, ATL)

Darnell Mooney is more of a Flex option or a WR4, but he is getting consistent targets and producing catches and yards every week. Mooney has 24 total targets for the year and is second only to Drake London in Atlanta. Tampa Bay may have only allowed one wide receiver touchdown this season, but they have allowed the seventh-most receptions to the position.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Kirk Cousins (QB, ATL)

For as many weapons as Kirk Cousins has at his disposal, it's been disappointing to see him roll out to a QB25 start to the year. Even players like Bo Nix and Daniel Jones have more fantasy points this season. Cousins is not being asked to throw a lot and is just 18th in pass attempts, 21st in air yards, and 17th in passing touchdowns.

One of a few nice boundary throws by Kirk Cousins today.#Falcons pic.twitter.com/vMQusUxZxQ

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 29, 2024

Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)

That's two straight weeks with snaps on under 70% of offensive plays. He had an airball in Week 4 with zero fantasy points and looked to be far away from a focal part of this offense. At some point, we have to come to grips with the fact that it's not the coach, quarterback, scheme, or team. It's the player.

Tyler Allgeier (RB, ATL)

I have gone back and forth on this one, but ultimately, I don't think Allgeier gets enough volume to make him fantasy-relevant. He did have 10 touches in Week 4 but needed ultra-efficiency to get more than eight yards per touch. He did have 38% of snaps in that game but was at 21% or below in Weeks 1-3, so I would need to see it more than once.

Ray-Ray McCloud III (WR, ATL)

McCloud has seen seven targets twice already this season but has just one game with more than four receptions. He can be a desperation play in the Flex of a deep PPR league in hopes that he repeats his six catches for 52 yards last week. For most leagues, however, he is too inconsistent, and there are too many other options ahead of him to make him a surefire starter.

Jalen McMillan (WR, TB)

UPDATE: Jalen McMillan has been ruled out for Thursday night.

Jalen McMillan is dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of Week 4, and he has exactly one catch in each of the first three weeks. With the emergence of Otton, McMillan would need an injury to break into this passing tree as it stands right now.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: ATL -1.5, Total: 43.5

A one-and-a-half-point spread for the Falcons at home essentially means this is a pick 'em, and Atlanta is getting a small home field boost. After shutting down the Eagles and Lions in two of the last three games, I see no reason why the Bucs can't put enough pressure on immobile Kirk Cousins to force him into some mistakes.

This game will be won on whether or not Cousins can stand in the face of that pressure.

Atlanta ranks sixth in the NFL with just a 4.8% sack rate against their quarterback, so that strength will go up against the Buccaneers' pass rush to see who controls this game. Assuming the Falcons can get Robinson to take pressure off the pocket, I fully expect this game to go past the "Over" by a good amount, with Tampa Bay winning outright.

The pick for Thursday Night Football this week is Tampa Bay 31, Atlanta 23.

The Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5, OVER 43.5

2024 Record:
Spread (3-1; Brandon Aubrey just had to miss that last kick on Thursday...), Over/Under (2-2)

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