Broncos vs. Chargers TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, Justin Herbert, Gus Edwards, Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston

While it's impossible to predict what will happen on Thursday Night Football between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers, I can almost guarantee that there will be more points scored than last week. Fantasy football was blessed by many incredible Thursday Night Football games this season, but last week was far and away the worst.

Fantasy football was dealt a cruel blow in the first round of the playoffs last week with a 12-6 game with no touchdowns. With both the Broncos and Chargers fighting for an AFC Wild Card spot and both offenses gaining steam, the fantasy points in this game should be quite higher.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 16 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers - 8:15 p.m. EST

Notable Injuries:

• Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN) - OUT - Quadriceps
• Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) - ACTIVE - Ankle
• Will Dissly (TE, LAC) - OUT - Shoulder
• Hayden Hurst (TE, LAC) - ACTIVE - Hip

Broncos vs. Chargers Matchup Breakdown

Something none of us would have believed at the start of the 2024 NFL season, this game will depend largely on the ability of Los Angeles to stop a high-powered Denver offense. In their four-game win streak, the Broncos averaged 34.8 points per game. They were all against inferior opponents, but all wins were by at least nine points.

A high-stakes divisional matchup in prime time. ✨#TNFonPrime x #DENvsLAC#ProBowlVote + @nikkkkbonitto pic.twitter.com/xXdL5a10Za

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 18, 2024

The Chargers, on the other hand, have struggled on defense against good teams. Against their last four opponents currently in playoff spots, the Chargers have allowed 30.8 points per game. They also gave up an average of 26.5 points per game to Carolina, Tennessee, Cleveland, and New Orleans. Those offenses aren't scaring anyone these days.

The Chargers currently have three cornerbacks, a linebacker, and a defensive tackle listed as Questionable for this game. If they are down to second string at a lot of key positions, Bo Nix and Denver could find the time in the pocket they need to air it out against the Chargers. The Chargers' ability to stop them will be the key to this game.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Calling Courtland Sutton a top-25 wide receiver this year (he is WR25 in half-PPR points per game) is not giving him the props he deserves for what he has been doing lately. He scored 10 or fewer points in four of his first five games. He was not good during the time that he and Bo Nix developed a rapport.

Courtland Sutton said “Broncos country always shows up” and is louder than the Chargers fans when they play in LA.

“We always know Broncos country is going to show up”

— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) December 17, 2024

Since Week 6, Sutton is WR13 in points per game and he has seven straight games with at least eight targets. Sutton's 26% target share has moved into elite territory and he is eighth in the NFL with a 40% air yards share.

Ladd McConkey (WR, LAC)

When healthy, Ladd McConkey has proved to be one of the best young PPR options in fantasy football. He has at least six targets in five of his last six healthy games and has 100 yards or a touchdown in three of his last four games. Patrick Surtain II (assuming he plays) is unlikely to shadow McConkey in the slot.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Bo Nix (QB, DEN)

In that same span that Courtland Sutton has been so good (since Week 6), Bo Nix is also the QB7 during that time. Funny how things work out like that. Despite not running nearly as much as he did early in the season, Nix is getting the job done with his arm. He has 12 touchdown passes in his last five games.

Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)

While not quite to the same level as Bo Nix, Justin Herbert has quietly been very effective since Week 8 and ranks as the QB15 in that time with almost 18 fantasy points per game. He is supplementing his cannon of an arm with rushing yards each game. Expect something in the neighborhood of 215 yards and two touchdowns.

Justin Herbert said he expects to play Thursday despite the ankle injury on a short week. pic.twitter.com/X4hYCtCIc3

— Thuc Nhi Nguyen (@thucnhi21) December 18, 2024

Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC)

Quentin Johnston has been a roller-coaster ride for the past seven weeks, which is why he can't be a full-throated endorsement as a must-play. He has a floor of zero fantasy points in that span but also has tantalized with 20 points in one game and two with around 14 points.

Kimani Vidal (RB, LAC)

While it didn't necessarily translate to the box score, Kimani Vidal's usage exploded in Week 15, as he played 67% of snaps. That was far and away a season-high, and even though he only had five touches, it's clear he is gaining the trust of the coaches. Gus Edwards only played 27% of snaps and was once again ineffective.

Stone Smartt (TE, LAC)

EDIT: STONE SMARTT A RISKIER PLAY NOW THAT HAYDEN HURST MAY STEAL SOME OF HIS SNAPS ON THURSDAY

If Hayden Hurst does not play again in Week 16 (Will Dissly is out), Stone Smartt has proved he can be a tight-end streamer in 12- or 14-team leagues. He has back-to-back weeks with at least 50 yards and he caught five balls on six targets in Week 15. He is ascending in the receiving pecking order on this team.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime (RBs, DEN)

How bad were these three running backs against Indianapolis in Week 15? Combined, they touched the ball 24 times for 65 yards. That's 2.7 yards per touch. And it's not just the inefficiency with these running backs, it's also the inconsistent playing time. None of them have played more than 56% of snaps since Week 8.

Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr., and Troy Franklin (WRs, DEN)

Predicting the performance of the WR2, WR3, and WR4 for Denver has become a difficult exercise. One week, it's Marvin Mims' turn, and then it might be Troy Franklin's turn. In Week 11, Franklin caught a touchdown. In Week 12, it was Vele with a big game, followed by Mims in Week 13. None of them performed well in Week 15 and they are best left on benches this week.

Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins (TEs, DEN)

Both of these tight ends scored in Week 15, so why the hesitation to start them in Week 16? In case you haven't grasped the theme, it's "inconsistency." Trautman played 43% of snaps and Adkins played 46%. Neither of those instills confidence. And despite the touchdowns, neither has eclipsed 20 yards in a game since Week 10.

Nate Adkins wide open for the TD! @Broncos

📺: #ATLvsDEN on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/J51al1LJSt

— NFL (@NFL) November 17, 2024

Gus Edwards (RB, LAC)

Edwards did see that drop to just 27% of snaps last week, but it wasn't just a one-week slide. This has been coming for several weeks. Edwards played 52% in Week 13, then 43% in Week 14, and down to 27% in Week 15. He is not explosive this year and has just gotten lucky to stumble into the end zone twice in the last five weeks.

Joshua Palmer (WR, LAC)

The only excellent fantasy performance Joshua Palmer has this season came in Week 14 when he caught six balls for 78 yards. But that production came with Ladd McConkey out of the game. In the five games before and since, Palmer does not have more than 38 yards in a game. Johnston and McConkey are the clear top two in this offense.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: LAC -3
Over/Under: 42

When these teams played in Week 5, the Broncos didn't score until the fourth quarter, but still lost by only a score of 23-16. The Broncos can score points in a hurry and their defense is much improved lately.

Denver is now third in the league by allowing only 2.7 red-zone trips per game to its opponents. Not surprisingly, the Broncos allow the fewest touchdowns per game at just 1.7 per contest this season. Justin Herbert is good enough to put up points on them, but he can't get out and stop the Denver offense.

In a tense battle for the playoffs, I will take Denver winning outright by a score of 24-20.

The Pick: DEN +3, OVER 42

2024 Record (including Thanksgiving games):
Spread (10-7), Over/Under (10-6-1)

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