RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~84 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~95
ANALYSIS: Robinson and free agent addition Austin Ekeler are currently expected to split touches in Washington’s backfield. Despite this, Ekeler is the preferred option among gamers and is going nearly 16 picks earlier than Robinson. This is happening despite Robinson finishing higher than Ekeler in the following metrics:
- Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF)
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s EXP Run %
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT).
- Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Rushing Grade
- PFF’s Elusive Rating
So, we are drafting a 29-year-old back, coming off the worst year of his career, whose metrics all signal he’s in decline over a 25-year-old back coming off his best season as a professional?
Ekeler traditionally has been a great pass-catching back, but he wasn’t better than Robinson in that area either last year.
Ekeler:
8.5 yards per reception
5.9 yards per target
1.40 YPRR
1 receiving touchdown
Robinson:
10.2 yards per reception
8.6 yards per target
1.89 YPRR
4 receiving touchdowns
No, this does not suggest Robinson is going to morph into an elite pass-catching back. That’s just not his skill set. But it does mean these backs might not be that different as pass-catchers in terms of potential fantasy production.
There is no good reason to draft Ekeler over Robinson other than name value. Robinson is not a perfect back, but he’s not terrible either. Robinson is Washington’s best option at the moment. He could also see a boost in efficiency playing alongside dual-threat rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Fresh off a PPR RB21 finish, Robinson should be considered the preferred pick from this backfield.
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