Breece Hall Fantasy Football Outlook for Week 5 - Cause For Concern?

What happened to Breece Hall? Last week was a complete shock as the Broncos held him to four yards on 10 carries and two receptions for fourteen yards. That was his lowest yardage total by far in any full game he has played in his career.

It’s times like these that we need to keep reminding ourselves not to overreact. However, maybe our expectations need to be adjusted.

With Braelon Allen starting to showcase his ability, and the Jets' offense failing to put up 10 points, we need to dive into what this means for Breece Hall.

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Last Week

I think Breece Hall managers are still trying to pick their jaws off the floor after seeing what their star RB did. In a game that was in the pouring rain, Hall was primed for a massive day on the ground. Instead, he couldn't find any space and had to work hard for all four of his rushing yards.

The Broncos defense has been surprisingly good this year despite losing star safety Justin Simmons in the offseason. Even against a tough defense, Hall should be one of those players that can overcome any matchup. 

What may have been an even bigger surprise is that his running mate, Braelon Allen, found more success. Allen had eight carries for 34 yards and one reception for 12 yards, more than doubling Hall's yardage on fewer touches.

If Allen continues to be more efficient on his limited touches, what does this mean for Hall’s fantasy future?

How does this impact Breece Hall’s Value?

Firstly, we need to relax. Breece Hall is a superstar, and even superstars can have bad days. Even though rain usually means a big day for runningbacks, some players don't deal with the rain as well as others. 

Unfortunately, by opening the door for Braelon Allen, Hall has jeopardized his fantasy ceiling. I am confident that he will still be the main guy and a top-eight fantasy running back for the rest of the season. However, to be the top two fantasy back that he was drafted to be, he can’t lose touches to Allen. For example, look at the dominant workloads of Kyren Williams and Saquon Barkley. To me, both Williams and Barkley have a better shot at finishing atop the position despite being drafted well after Hall.

It’s important to note that a timeshare is not necessarily a bad thing. Most teams around the league are adopting this approach to the position. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are a perfect example of elite production in a committee backfield. Although the Lions are more of an anomaly, I think Hall is now in the tier with Bijan Robinson, who loses touches each week to Tyler Allgeier. 

The good news about fewer touches is that it may increase Hall’s efficiency and keep him healthy. Hall has dealt with multiple injuries so far in his career. Throughout the season, fewer touches will decrease his chance of injury. Overall, I believe the emergence of Allen is good for Hall’s fantasy value, even if it limits his ceiling each week.

What’s Next?

As much as I’d love to call for a bounce-back performance from Breece Hall in Week 5, the Jets are traveling to London to take on the Vikings. This season the Vikings are allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards and fewest rushing touchdowns to the position. Yikes.

Hall always can break a big play or put up prolific receiving numbers, even in a tough matchup like this. However, if he does struggle again and Allen manages to produce, we will officially have a buy-low opportunity. Allen’s resurgence can’t be denied, and if it is two down games in a row, the Hall manager may start panicking.

This is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of the situation, as in Week 6 he faces a Buffalo team that was just humbled by the Ravens' rushing attack. From Week 6 on, Hall only faces three defenses that are top 16 for the fewest fantasy points to the position. Those teams are the Steelers in Week 7 (1st), the Texans in Week 9 (10th), and the Colts in Week 11 (16th). Other than those three games, Hall has a dream schedule.

In terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to the position, he plays the Bills twice (32nd), the Dolphins twice (29th), the Cardinals (28th), the Rams (27th), the Jaguars (26th), and the Seahawks (20th). That’s a ridiculously good schedule for the rest of the fantasy season.

On schedule alone, Hall is a screaming trade target for every fantasy team. Even if you have to pay a decent price, he has the skill and schedule that can win fantasy championships. Plus, Aaron Rodgers has looked more like his old self each week this season. If this offense can get rolling, the sky is truly the limit for the Jets (pun intended).

I’d trade any RB not named Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Kyren Williams for him.

4. Breece Hall

- 16.5 FP/G
- AVG 6 targets per game
- 3rd highest team target share
- AVG 20+ total touches per game

He’s has started off slow with just 43.5 rush yards per game…

BUT he’s dominating the touches/ averaging the highest target share %.pic.twitter.com/zeKWk1Ux67

— Snoog's Fantasy HQ (@FFSnoog) October 2, 2024

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