Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Outlook

The Pittsburgh Steelers are a lot like a boy band crafting their breakout hit. The young, talented group is growing together and working its way toward stardom.

Quarterback Kenny Pickett is entering his second season. So far this preseason, he is showing a drastic improvement from his rookie campaign. Both running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, are under their first contracts and bring something different to the table. George Pickens is boasting that he's the best wide receiver "in the whole world." Diontae Johnson, the elder statesman as a fifth-year receiver, won't have another scoreless season. Third-year tight end Pat Freiermuth is one of the more consistent options at his position.

The offense wasn't always pretty in 2022. Pittsburgh ranked 23rd in yards per game (322.6) and tied for 26th in points per game (18.1). While we aren't projecting the Steelers to jump to a top-10 offense in 2023, there are a lot of fun options to target in your fantasy football drafts.

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Fantasy Football Breakout: George Pickens

Even the more casual football fans may know of George Pickens. The second-year wide receiver has a pension for highlight-reel catches, including this one on Thursday Night Football last season.

This is what we know Pickens does well. The 22-year-old ranked second in NFL's Next Gen Stats 'Catch Rate Over Expected' metric. It basically measures how good a receiver is at making contested or tough catches. He also finished the season with an average depth of target of 14.5 yards and the seventh-most deep targets of all wideouts.

He had a lot of opportunities to make circus catches because his average target separation was among the worst for qualified pass catchers. The play call for Pickens was to run straight down the field, basically. If there was even a tiny bit of separation, the ball will go his way. Those stats don't bode well in his quest to be a top receiver.

Reports out of training camp (plus what we've seen of Pickens in the preseason) tell us that he's adding to his route tree. That, alongside a more solidified role in the offense, means the ex-Georgia Bulldog appears poised for an increase in targets and receptions. His rookie season stat line of 52 catches for 801 yards and four touchdowns could be his floor. Especially if both Pickens and his quarterback make improvements to their game as they enter their sophomore seasons.

Fantasy Football Bust: Najee Harris

Running back Najee Harris could very easily top 1,000 yards on the ground for a third straight season, but it will come with opportunity. The former first-round pick averages less than four yards per carry in his short career but has tallied over 300 touches in each campaign. Despite his less-than-stellar production per touch, Harris does profile as a solid receiver out of the backfield. He's averaging 57.5 catches over his two seasons.

Harris is also a former first-round pick who is still on his rookie contract. That's a big investment for any franchise. His backup, Jaylen Warren, went undrafted in 2022. Warren actually outpaced Harris in yards per carry (4.8 to 3.8) and yards per reception (7.6 to 5.6). However, because of the draft capital invested in Harris, he averaged nearly 66 percent of the snaps for the Steelers in 2022. Warren's number sat at 33 percent (discounting Week 11 when he left the game after just one touch).

So far in the preseason, those numbers have inched closer to each other. Kenny Pickett has played 17 snaps through two games. Harris was in the backfield for nine of those plays. Warren received the other eight and has made the most out of those opportunities.

Harris will likely still be the starter and be very serviceable for fantasy football managers in 2023, but the ADP price is steep for someone who could be splitting a backfield evenly. The ex-Crimson Tide runner is coming off the board as the 35th pick. Warren is all the way down at 129. Other backs going around Harris' ADP include Rhamondre Stevenson, Josh Jacobs, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Joe Mixon. Three of those four (excluding Gibbs) have a much clearer path to the lion's share of production in their respective backfields.

Fantasy Football Lock: Pat Freiermuth

Tight end Pat Freiermuth has delivered similar reception totals (60 and 63) in his first two NFL seasons. He found the end zone more often in his rookie season, but the third-year pro had 235 more yards in his second campaign. His 2022 season was good for the TE7 finish in PPR formats, averaging a healthy 9.9 points per game.

Where Freiermuth struggled in 2022 was the red zone. Or I should say that's where Kenny Pickett struggled. Freiermuth and receiver Diontae Johnson found themselves with the ball in the end zone just twice between the two of them. Both of those were Freiermuth's scores and one came in Week 2 when Mitch Trubisky was starting.

Pickett only tossed seven touchdowns on 389 pass attempts, good for a whopping 1.8% touchdown rate. The signal-caller only completed 41.5% of his passes in the red zone, behind guys like Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, and Davis Mills.

So far this preseason, Pickett has been slinging the ball all over the field. This includes a touchdown to Freiermuth, albeit it came from just outside of the red zone.

Barring injury, Freiermuth's role is secure in this offense and his floor is what he did in 2022 (63-732-2). Again, that was still good enough to be a weekly starter at the tight end position. Pickett has nowhere to go but up in touchdown rate and the tight end will benefit.

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