Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Cincinnati Bengals

Ever since Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase teamed up, the Cincinnati Bengals have been a consistent Super Bowl contender and producer of fantasy football assets.

The Bengals finished seventh in the NFL in total scoring and No. 11 in total yards. Three of their offensive weapons are top-30 draft picks. They have gradually improved their offensive line from being one of the weakest in the league to one that looks to be above average as we enter 2023.

This offseason, they added Orlando Brown to protect Burrow's left side, and they brought in former Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. to replace the departing Hayden Hurst, who was a bit of a bust. Long-time backup running back Samaje Perine also found a new home in free agency, and the Bengals drafted Illinois running back Chase Brown in the fifth round.

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Fantasy Football Breakout: Chase Brown

Most of the Bengals' offense is set. The wide receivers and running back who accounted for 67.3% of the team's targets last season are all returning and remaining in the same positions on the depth chart.

I also don't think there's a lot of fluidity in the wide receiver pecking order. Chase is clearly the alpha, even if Higgins could be a WR1 on a lot of other teams, and Boyd is a nice option to have in the slot. Burrow doesn't like to throw to his receiver when the team has such elite wide receivers to throw to; Hurst had almost identical numbers in 2021 to what C.J. Uzomah did in 2020. Tight ends are almost an afterthought for the Bengals that they stream each year.

Chase Brown, however, should be the front runner to earn the RB2 spot, and that could put him in line for 15-25 carries a game if Joe Mixon gets injured. Last season, Perine averaged 19 carries and 82 yards in the two games he started. Perine's departure vacates a total of 95 carries, but before you get too excited, remember that Mixon had an unusually low number of carries last season. He could realistically take up most of the vacated carries himself and still not hit his career high in attempts.

However, Mixon has appeared to slow down in recent years. He averaged just 1.5 yards after contact per attempt last season, according to Pro Football Reference, his worst season yet, and it was his third straight season averaging fewer than 2.0 YAC/attempt. PFF uses a different means to calculate YAC/attempt, but it has him ranked as the tenth-worst of all qualifying backs.

Brown could get opportunities if either Mixon gets injured or severely disappoints. If he is close to displaying the explosiveness and burst he did at Illinois, where he forced 83 missed tackles, more than anyone but Bijan Robinson, he could surprise a lot of people.

Fantasy Football Bust: Irv Smith Jr.

Irv Smith Jr. is being taken in redraft ahead of Sam LaPorta and Michael Mayer. From one point of view, that makes sense: LaPorta and Mayer are rookies and rookie tight ends rarely do well. From another point of view, it doesn't make sense: Smith is a Bengals tight end...

In the three years that Joe Burrow has been behind center, this is how many catches, yards, and touchdowns Cincinnati's leading tight end produced: 40-349-1, 49-493-5, 52-414-2. The Bengals don't target the tight end--and why should they when they have Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon out of the backfield?

Smith was touted as being a "dangerous receiving tight end" when he came out of Alabama in 2019 after putting up 710 yards as a junior. Creating a target in the middle of the field was supposed to be his strength while blocking was his weakness. But in the NFL he hasn't been great at blocking or receiving. He only caught 36 passes on 47 targets for 311 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie, and his targets and receptions have decreased in both years since then.

Last season he was injured and missed half the season. But he would have only come close to matching his career high for yardage if you extended his production over a full season. The Vikings are also a team, like the Bengals, that doesn't feel the need to utilize tight ends often. Whether you blame the situation or the player, either way, Irv Smith Jr. should not be expected to do much.

Fantasy Football Lock: Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow is the second-best quarterback in the league by some assessments, and he could be a top-two fantasy quarterback if a couple of things go right for him.

In 2021, Burrow led the league with 8.9 yards per attempt, but he only threw 520 passes. In 2022, his yards per attempt number dropped to 7.4, but he threw 86 more pass attempts. He also only threw 35 touchdown passes, which was just one more than he did in 2021.

If he could throw 640 passes, just fewer than Kirk Cousins, for 8.0 yards per attempt and a 6.0% touchdown percentage, higher than in 2022, but lower than in 2021, he would finish the year with 5,120 yards and 38 touchdowns.

That's not even his ceiling. If he hits his career highs in each per-play rate, he would contend for the league lead in each counting statistic. To be sure, the example I cited isn't his floor, either. He could come in under it. But his 2022 numbers are closer to his floor than the ceiling, and he's the QB4 with those numbers. Burrow is so integral to the Bengals' offense, especially with their lack of depth at running back, that he could push for the league lead in pass attempts.

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