X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Starting Pitcher Breakouts Who Will Keep Improving

Jon Anderson evaluates starting pitchers who have already experienced a breakout that could keep improving in 2021. These SP are worth their ADP in fantasy baseball drafts and could still be undervalued.

Playing only 60 games in 2020 was sure to result in some wacky outcomes. The league leaders in innings were barely cracking 80 innings, less than a third of the usual. This resulted in some final pitching lines that certainly would not have remained the same had there been 100 more innings added to the sample.

In this article, we are going to take a look at a few pitchers that had really awesome 2020 seasons and should be expected to more or less keep that up moving forward. This means finding guys that owe their improvements to skill rather than randomness and good fortune.

While I did not highlight any pitchers with low ADP for 2021, these are four starters I really believe in repeating their 2020 production to a large extent, making them still great draft targets even at the elevated price tag.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

This is not the first time we have talked about the ridiculous season Burnes put up in 2020, and it will not be the last. The Brewers righty posted a 2.11 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and a 36.7% strikeout rate. That was a far cry from the 8.83 ERA and 1.84 WHIP he posted in his 49 innings in 2019. Now I'm not going to be the guy here saying that Burnes will improve on his 2020 numbers, those are really tough numbers to improve on. The case I am making is that he will be much, much more like his 2020 self than 2019 going forward.

The main reason for this is that Burnes made a significant change to his pitch arsenal in 2020. I will always believe in a surprise breakout more when it comes alongside a significant change in what the player is doing on the field. In 2019, Burnes threw his four-seam fastball 52.5% of the time and gave up a ridiculous .823 slugging percentage and a .672 expected slugging percentage with the pitch. Over the offseason, he decided to scrap the pitch, throwing it just 25 times total in 2020. He replaced that usage with a sinker (33%) and cutter (32%) combination. The sinker was still hit hard (.585 expected slugging), but not nearly as badly as the four-seamer, and the cutter was awesome (.285 expected slugging). This led to decreased slider usage (from 31% to 13%), but it made the pitch even more devastating as hitters no longer knew when it was coming. The slider earned a 60% whiff rate and a .165 expected slugging percentage; one of the game's best individual pitches.

Burnes has a really impressive arm, he has strong velocity and fantastic movement. It was just a matter of figuring out how to use his pitch mix and locating better, and he made huge strides in those categories last season. Maybe he will not be a top-10 pitcher in the game like he was in 2020 ever again, but I feel very confident about the changes he made and think Burnes is an easy top-30 pitcher for 2021.

 

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins

Maeda did not change things up as much as Burnes did, but there was an arsenal change contributing to his elite 2020 season where he posted a 2.70 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 32.2% strikeout rate. He also brought down the four-seam usage (from 34% to 19%), making the difference up with sliders (+7%) and changeups (+6%). Maeda's fastball has never been one to generate lots of swings and misses, so using off-speed and breaking stuff much more frequently created a believable rise in swinging-strike rate (from 14.6% to 17.2%). Another positive outcome of this was he generated more groundballs (+8%).

It is possible that the team change had just as much to do with his breakout 2020 season. When he was with the Dodgers, he constantly had his outings cut short and at times was sent back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. In Minnesota, the Twins gave him the reigns to throw as many innings out of the starting rotation as he could. He averaged more than six innings per outing and won six games in his 11 starts. It is true that he ran a little hot with the .208 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate, so we shouldn't be expecting another WHIP near 0.75 (that is almost impossible to do over a full season), but Maeda should have no trouble posting another top 25 SP season now that he's settled in as a Twin.

 

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks

Gallen was one of the least-surprising breakouts of 2020, but he certainly did not let anybody down who predicted his great 2020 season. The story with Gallen is his elite command. He threw four different pitches more than 15% of the time in 2020 and located them all beautifully. If you look at the heat maps, he almost never comes near the heart of the plate.

While he does not have the most electric "stuff", averaging just 93 MPH on the fastball without notable spin on any pitch, it is more than enough to give Gallen legitimate fantasy ace upside. He earned a 44% whiff rate on his changeup and a strong 38% mark on the curveball, all while generating lots of ground-balls (46%). This guy has posted nothing but elite ratios at every level of play so far. His ranking as a top-20 fantasy starter is here to stay.

 

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Nola was already considered an ace by many, but 2020 really solidified him as one of the best pitchers in the game in my mind. After throwing a four-seamer and curveball combination 70% of the time in 2019, he transformed his pitch mix and began throwing four pitches all almost evenly.

This pitch usage is almost unheard of. He was nearly impossible to predict in any count. Even in 0-2 counts, there was no pitch to sit on (40% fastball, 32% curve, 23% sinker, 12% changeup in those counts).

It's one thing to be unpredictable, and another thing to be unpredictable AND have elite stuff, which Nola does. His curveball has consistently graded out as one of the best breaking pitches in the game, and he has achieved better than average results with his four-seamer every year of his career as well. He posted expecting slugging percentages below .440 with all four pitches and got whiffs at a high rate with every pitch but the sinker.  He did all of this while maintaining the same high ground-ball rate he has always had (at 51% for his career).

It was not a "breakout" as much as "return to greatness" for Nola in 2020, but at the age of just 27, he looks like one of the safest bet aces in the league at this point.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Eugenio Suárez55 mins ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Go-Ahead Grand Slam Tuesday
A.J. Puk1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Michael King1 hour ago

Fans 11 In Five Shutout Innings Tuesday
Christian Yelich1 hour ago

Hits First Homer Of Season, Steals Base Tuesday
Evan Engram1 hour ago

Sean Payton Excited About Evan Engram In Joker Role
Anthony Bender1 hour ago

Earns First Save Of Season Tuesday
Robert Hassell III1 hour ago

Has Three-Hit Day At Triple-A
Thomas Harrington2 hours ago

Hit Hard In MLB Debut Tuesday
Gunnar Henderson2 hours ago

Hits Solo Homer In Triple-A Rehab Game Tuesday
Marcelo Mayer2 hours ago

Hits First Home Run At Triple-A
Caleb Williams2 hours ago

To Spend More Time Working Under Center
Tom Hoge2 hours ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Zebby Matthews2 hours ago

Twirls Five Shutout Innings At Triple-A
Daniel Jones2 hours ago

Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones To Split First-Team Reps This Offseason
Terry McLaurin3 hours ago

Commanders Interested In Extending Terry McLaurin
Rashee Rice3 hours ago

Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Hurston Waldrep3 hours ago

Fans Seven In Win At Triple-A
Garrett Wilson3 hours ago

Jets Plan To Get Garrett Wilson The Ball "As Much As Possible"
Keaton Mitchell3 hours ago

Ravens Have High Hopes For Keaton Mitchell
Angel Genao3 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Injury
Derrick Henry3 hours ago

John Harbaugh Wants Ravens To Extend Derrick Henry
Christian McCaffrey3 hours ago

Is Healthy
Clarke Schmidt3 hours ago

To Return April 15 Or 16
Shane Baz4 hours ago

Strikes Out 10
Mike Tauchman4 hours ago

Begins Rehab Assignment
Wyatt Langford4 hours ago

Launches Another Homer
Nathan Eovaldi4 hours ago

Throws Complete Game Shutout
Michael Petersen5 hours ago

Traded To Atlanta
Matt Fitzpatrick5 hours ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners5 hours ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay5 hours ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Reynaldo López5 hours ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland5 hours ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia6 hours ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti6 hours ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL6 hours ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette6 hours ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus6 hours ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants6 hours ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears6 hours ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Sam Ehlinger6 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Guerschon Yabusele7 hours ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns7 hours ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals7 hours ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Jevon Carter7 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry7 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips7 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Jalen Smith7 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Lonzo Ball7 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Kevin Huerter7 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Josh Giddey7 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton7 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale7 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant8 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal8 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II8 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons8 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young8 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser8 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo8 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud8 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Isaiah Stewart8 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba8 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga8 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry8 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Jaylen Brown8 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault8 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Alex Laferriere8 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Luke Schenn9 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Dante Fabbro9 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Detroit Lions11 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans11 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders11 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear12 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins12 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL12 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä12 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway12 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys12 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal12 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy12 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Josh Norris12 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk12 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Jordan Spieth14 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp14 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim15 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood15 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau15 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole15 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith19 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment19 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka19 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov19 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov19 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes19 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA1 day ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron2 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry3 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres5 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer5 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum5 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales5 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.5 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira5 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]


Najee Harris - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, Jordan Mason

One year ago, we discussed the futures of Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Aaron Jones as those free agents found new homes. This year's headliners are Najee Harris, Rico Dowdle, and Jordan Mason. Not quite the same. Still, with every transaction come implications for dynasty fantasy football rosters across the globe. Below, we […]


Romeo Doubs - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Undervalued NFC Draft Targets

While the 2025 fantasy football redraft season is still several months away, there is no such thing as being too prepared for your fantasy draft. Fantasy football is year-round, even for those who only play in redraft leagues. The landscape of fantasy football will change between today and the start of redraft season, with the […]


Detroit Lions Defense, Aidan Hutchinson - Fantasy Football DST Rankings, Streamers, IDP Sleepers

2025 Fantasy Football IDP Sleepers: Five Draft Targets

It's notably difficult to identify sleepers in fantasy football IDP leagues. The skill of the players in question is very important, but situation also plays a large factor, as does a recent history of injuries. Rather than bucketing them into groups, it's better to analyze each one individually, look at where they are in terms […]


Ashton Jeanty - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Ashton Jeanty's Top Potential Landing Spots For 2025: Fantasy Football NFL Draft Outlook

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will enter the 2025 NFL Draft as one of the best prospects in the class. Jeanty just ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns across 14 games this past college season. Those 2,601 rush yards were the second-most of all-time in FBS history, only behind Barry Sanders's 2,628 rush yards […]


Bhaysul Tuten - NFL Draft Prospects, Rookie Rankings

2025 Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

The 2025 NFL Combine has now been completed, so it's worth doing another mock draft to see where everyone stands after the league's pre-draft testing event. Overall, there were a few surprises, but the order of many players will remain the same. The mental domain of the original rankings, which have been fairly set in […]


Rashid Shaheed - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Later-Career Breakout Candidates

Typically, most NFL players break out in the early parts of their careers. Between the ages of 20 and 25 is when you expect to see the majority of players have their first big season. Some waste no time and put together excellent years while they're rookies, while some need more time to develop. These […]