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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 12. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 12. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters who's advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I'll be filling in for Jon Anderson with this weekly article, giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
| Week | Date | Breakout Picks |
| Week 3 | 4/12 | Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh |
| Week 4 | 4/19 | Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker |
| Week 5 | 4/26 | Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger |
| Week 6 | 5/2 | Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Jonah Heim, Edward Olivares, Jorge Mateo |
| Week 7 | 5/9 | Ezequiel Duran, Triston Casas, Joey Gallo, Zach McKinstry, Ke'Bryan Hayes |
| Week 8 | 5/16 | Alex Kirilloff, Matt McLain, Zach Neto, Taylor Walls |
| Week 9 | 5/23 | Josh Jung, Brett Baty, Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz |
| Week 10 | 5/30 | Riley Greene, Leody Taveras, Seiya Suzuki |
| Week 11 | 6/8 | Luke Raley, Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, Jake Burger |
Week 12 Picks
Evan Longoria, Arizona Diamondbacks
Evan Longoria has been a productive hitter for nearly his entire career. The former top-3 pick was considered one of the best third basemen in baseball during the first 10 years of his career with the Tampa Bay Rays. Since then, Longoria had decent years with the San Francisco Giants but ultimately succumbed to injury the last few seasons.
This year, the veteran third baseman is with the Diamondbacks and looking like the player he was for so many years. Longoria has been among the league's best home run hitters in his limited plate appearances.
| Player | PA | HR | PA/HR |
| Aaron Judge | 213 | 19 | 11.1 |
| Pete Alonso | 260 | 22 | 11.8 |
| J.D. Martinez | 219 | 16 | 13.7 |
| Max Muncy | 251 | 18 | 13.9 |
| Evan Longoria | 116 | 9 | 12.8 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 206 | 14 | 14.7 |
| Jorge Soler | 267 | 19 | 14.1 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 242 | 17 | 14.2 |
| Joey Gallo | 169 | 11 | 15.4 |
| Nolan Gorman | 239 | 15 | 15.9 |
To hit homers at that rate, Longoria's slugging must be up.
It is a limited sample size, but Longoria has the highest slugging percentage of his career this season.
The veteran third baseman is not going to be the answer to all your problems. Still, he can be a helpful corner infielder for fantasy teams that just lost Vinnie Pasquantino for the year. Longoria is playing for the second-best team in the National League in a hitter-friendly stadium, so the opportunity for runs and RBI should be there. Longoria should be productive if he is healthy enough to play.
Tommy Pham, New York Mets
We have another veteran hitter in his first full season with a new team. Tommy Pham is batting .235 on the season, but that's hardly indicative of the player he can be.
Pham has hit safely in six of his last seven games, including a 2-for-4 performance last night. Pham was not playing every day before Pete Alonso hit the injured list, but in his limited plate appearances before last night's game, he has slashed .235/.314/.471 with six home runs and six stolen bases. Those numbers are serviceable, but the expected stats suggest he could do even better.
Pham appears to be underperforming his expected stats across the board. He owns a .235 batting average with a .278 xBA. His .471 SLG would be right around the best seasons of his career is over 70 points lower than his xSLG of .542. His BABIP is a bit low for him at .268, but his strikeout and walk rates align with his career norms. The last time Pham slugged at this rate, he hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases. If the 35-year-old keeps it up, he can go 20/20 for the third time in his career.
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
Perhaps you're sensing a theme with this week's picks. Anthony Rendon is another veteran hitter who may be overlooked due to injury and talent concerns, but he still has much to offer.
Rendon has played in a little over 2/3 of the games this season. He's missed time to injuries and a suspension, so he may not be on people's radars. The veteran third baseman is not producing eye-popping power numbers, with only seven extra-base hits this year, but he is getting on base as well as anyone in the league. With 21 walks and 19 strikeouts, Rendon is among the few hitters with more walks than strikeouts, which is becoming increasingly rare in modern baseball.
Since returning from the injured list, Rendon has gone 2-for-27 (.074). The 35-year-old is rostered in less than 40% of leagues, so he may be available for free, but if he isn't, now may be the perfect time to throw out a very low offer for a talented contact hitter. The power days may be behind Rendon, but he can still be a valuable asset in points and OBP leagues once he finds his rhythm again.
Miguel Rojas, Los Angeles Dodgers
To round out this list, we have yet another veteran hitter on a good team. Miguel Rojas has been a serviceable contact hitter throughout his career, but his impact has always been felt more on the defensive side of the ball. This season, Rojas is back with the team he began his major league career with, and it's a great team to be on. The Dodgers are among the best teams in the league at finding production with undervalued hitters.
Rojas has always been a player that does not strike out often, continuing that trend this season. The 34-year-old is only striking out 12% of the time, good for the 95th percentile in the league. He's been one of the unluckiest hitters in baseball, batting .209 yet owning a .273 xBA. Rojas also has a .235 BABIP, mainly due to his 47% ground ball rate, but he has regularly had a BABIP over .270 in his career.
One of the main issues surrounding Rojas this season has been playing time concerns, but with Max Muncy dealing with a hamstring strain, the opportunity for more at-bats should be there. He won't hit for power, but he can collect hits and score runs for the high-powered Dodgers offense.
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